8:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Knicks -5, Over/Under: 218.5
After watching Monday night’s controversial finish, one can’t help receiving flashbacks to the mid-90s, as the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers and second-seeded New York Knicks renew hostilities in this Eastern Conference Semifinal, which is all set for Game Two tonight from Madison Square Garden. Seriously, Game One had everything that we have come to fondly remember from a rivalry that helped define the latter half of a decade, with rallies, big shots, hard fouls, and a plethora of drama centered upon some questionable late calls by the officials making for an entertaining rewind to a very different era of basketball. As many predicted, the Pacers’ (47-35, 6th in Eastern Conference) up-tempo attack created some problems for the hosts early, particularly during a second quarter in which they outscored the Knicks 31-22, shooting 14-of-26 from the field (53.8%), including 3-of-6 from beyond the arc (50.0%), with nine assists opposed to just one lone turnover. (Head Coach) Rick Carlisle’s troops took an 87-82 into the fourth period, where thing eventually began to unravel; while the visitors continued to shoot at a high percentage (10-of-17 FG), they couldn’t stop a nosebleed, shipping 13-of-20 shooting (65.0%) to the home side, while struggling to take care of the basketball with four turnovers. Of course, it is difficult to go any further without mentioning two SEISMIC calls that went against Indiana during the final fifty-eight seconds. First, with the affair tied at 115-115, they appeared to have stolen the basketball following an offensive rebound from New York, though the officials ruled a controversial kicked ball against Indy, which immediately led to a dagger from downtown to break the deadlock in favor of the Knickerbockers. Then, after a driving layup courtesy of (veteran Forward) Pascal Siakam cut the deficit to one point with 0:26 remaining, (veteran Center) Myles Turner was whistled for a moving screen that would be reviewed by officials, who ultimately stuck with the initial call. From there, the Pacers were forced to stop the clock by fouling, which sealed their fate in the 121-117 battle. It was nothing short of a disappointing outcome for a team that played the bulk of the contest at their pace; both teams shot over 50.0% from the field with 18+ fastbreak points apiece, while the visitors dished out THIRTY-TWO assists along the way. Coming into this opener, Indiana was 38-15 when logging 30+ dimes. Furthermore, the highest-scoring bench in the Association (46.6) accounted for forty-six points, a 43-point differential from their counterpart. Hell, they even limited the most rugged offensive rebounding team to just eight boards on that end of the hardwood (-1), though all it took were a pair of 50/50 calls that went against them to deny them an early series advantage. Six different players scored in double-figures, led by Turner and Siakam, who combined for forty-two points on 16-of-32 shooting (50.0%), eight rebounds, eight assists, and a pair of steals. (Veteran Guard) T.J. McConnell added eighteen points and three assists off the bench, though (All-Star Point Guard) Tyrese Haliburton (pictured below) put forth a rather underwhelming performance, which we’ll get into in more detail shortly. Sure, it would be easy for Indy to feel like they were cheated by the officials, but we have a suspicion that Carlisle will be preaching that if they continue to play like they did on Monay night, then the results will come as this series progresses.
From a betting perspective, it appears that the public aren’t fazed by the Pacers’ late meltdown on Monday night, as roughly 78% of all bets placed on tonight’s second chapter are riding with Indy, while an even greater share of the money (86%) wagered favors them as well. On the season, Indiana has been a solid play against the spread, posting a 48-39-2 record in that regard, equating to a net profit of 4.64 units. With that being said, they are coming off back-to-back covers for just the fourth time since January 15th and haven’t managed to string together more than that since January 5th. Carlisle’s charges have covered seven of their last ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers (4-0 as a road dog of 5.0-10.5 points), though that notion hasn’t applied to this particular matchup, where they are just 2-7-1 in as many encounters as an underdog versus New York. Keep an eye on that line, folks, for it dips below 5.0, then the following trend becomes relevant: Indy has failed to cover all but one of their past seven outings as an underdog of 0.5-4.5 points. On the injury front, keep an eye on Haliburton, who has been dealing with the effects of back spasms since the latter stages of their triumph over the Bucks. The floor general wasn’t particularly effective shooting the ball in the face of the Knickerbockers’ physicality, totaling just six points on 2-of-6 attempts (33.3%) in over thirty-six minutes of action, though did contribute to other areas with eight assists and four steals. Historically, the Pacers are 8-2 all-time in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, including three separate series conquests of the Knicks, who they have previously met on seven occasions overall (4-3). However, when losing the first game of a best-of-seven set, Indiana has gone on to win said series five times in eighteen tries, though it should be noted that they rallied back to eliminate Milwaukee after dropping the opener in their first-round matchup from two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, it is hard to come away from Game One’s 121-117 affair believing that the Knicks (50-32, 2nd in Eastern Conference) were more than fortunate. Then again, as we’ve seen throughout these Playoffs, the mark of a good team is finding ways to win when you haven’t been at your best, which is something that this group has become well-acquainted with. For roughly three quarters of basketball, New York looked gassed from the physical war of attrition that was their six-game conquest of Philadelphia in the first round, with this Eastern Conference Semifinal being characterized as a battle between polar-opposite styles. Size versus speed. Physicality in comparison to finesse. Fastbreak opportunities against halfcourt execution. Indeed, it was a bit of a slog for the hosts in the first half, as they shot just 42.9% from the field, including 4-of-12 from beyond the arc (33.3%), though managed to keep the tilt close by getting to the charity stripe with 9-of-11 free-throws (81.8), which also gave them the luxury of slowing the second-fastest team in the NBA down a bit. However, the second half proved to be very different story, as (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau’s troops shot a blistering 65.0% from the floor and 7-of-11 from downtown (63.6%), while netting 13-of-15 free-throws (86.5%). Of course, then came the drama. (All-Star Guard) Jalen Brunson (pictured below) would author his THIRD consecutive 40-point postseason performance but lost the ball on the aforementioned fantom kick ball, while (veteran Swingman) Donte DiVincenzo knocked down the ensuing three-pointer after it was ruled that his side retained possession. He would continue to factor into the controversy, drawing the offensive foul from the aforementioned Turner moments later, which allowed Brunson to eventually seal the deal at the stripe. Along with (collegiate teammate) Josh Hart, the Villanova triumvirate accounted for all but thirteen of the Knicks’ final seventy-two points, shooting a combined 20-of-30 from the field (66.7%) and 6-of-9 from three (66.7%), collecting ten rebounds and assists along the way. It should also be noted that New York managed to protect homecourt despite this opener played largely to Indiana’s liking; the home side shot 53.7% overall and enjoyed advantages from three (+3), at the stripe (+7), and even fastbreak points (+2), while continuing to control the glass (+8), despite only logging eight offensive rebounds, which is well below their season average. Then again, when you shoot over 50%, there aren’t very many opportunities to get those boards…
From a betting perspective, the public doesn’t appear to be buying into the Knicks late-game heroics in Game One, as approximately 22% of all bets placed at the moment favor Brunson & Co, while just 14% of the money wagered is in their corner. Similar to their counterpart from Indianapolis, this is a team that has managed to keep their heads above water when it comes to the spread, posting a 48-40-1 mark in that regard, parlaying to net profit of 3.64 units. New York has been one of the hotter teams in the East over the last six weeks, authoring an 18-7 straight-up record since March 12th, while covering fourteen of those outings along the way. Home hasn’t been the most profitable of places for Thibodeau’s charges, who are just 1-4 versus the spread in their past five contests at Madison Square Garden, while logging only one cover in their last five encounters with Indiana. Furthermore, New York hasn’t been able to maintain prosperity on this front, as they have been unable to cover the spread after a straight-up victory in four such games in a row. On the injury front, the Knickerbockers are without (Forwards) Julius Randle (shoulder) and Bojan Bogdanovic (foot/wrist) for the rest of the campaign, however long it lasts. While the absence of the former has helped galvanize this group over the past few months, the loss of the latter is particularly disappointing given that Thibodeau and (General Manager) Leon Rose acquired the services of the veteran sharpshooter to bolster the rotation at the Trade Deadline, parting ways with much of their bench mob to do so. However, news broke last night that (veteran Center) Mitchell Robinson will likely miss the rest of the campaign (4-6 weeks) due to a stress reaction in his left ankle. Half of a rotation that Thibodeau utilizes at Center alongside Isaiah Hartenstein, the 25-year-old is a persistent defensive force with 8.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks, while leading the team with 4.6 offensive rebounds a night. Historically, the Knicks are 16-17 all-time in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, though are just 4-12 at this particular stage of the postseason since 1978. Their rivalry with the Pacers was VERY REAL in the 1990s, when they crossed paths on SIX occasions between 1993 and 2000, splitting those series. Winning the first game of a best-of-seven series has proven to be a good omen for New York over the course of their storied franchise history, owning a stellar 16-6 all-time record in the Playoffs.
Projected Outcome: Pacers 114, Knicks 103
