10:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Nuggets -4.5, Over/Under: 205.5
In a confounding series that has yet to feature a victorious home side, the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves and the second-seeded Denver Nuggets face off in what should be a pivotal Game Five of this Western Conference Semifinal from Ball Arena. Oh, what a season it has been for the Timberwolves (56-26, 3rd in Western Conference), who have been enjoying a bonafide renaissance for months now, posting their best record in two decades and advancing to the second round of the postseason for the time in as many years. Indeed, Minnesota has emerged as one of the most decorated outfits in the Association this term, sporting the league’s top overall defense in both points allowed (106.5) and defensive rating (109.0), with the likes of (towering Center) Rudy Gobert taking home his FOURTH Defensive Player of the Year honors, while (stellar backup Forward) Naz Reid earned Sixth Man of the Year to boot. Furthermore, (All-Star Guard) Anthony Edwards has vaulted himself into the realm of superstardom, particularly during the Playoffs, where he has been drawing comparisons to legends of the game. Still only twenty-two years of age, Edwards (pictured below) has followed up a regular season in which posted career-highs in a slew of categories including points (25.9), field goal percentage (46.1%), free-throw percentage (83.6%) and assists (5.1), has raised the bar in the postseason with 32.1 points on 56.0% shooting, including 44.1% from three, 6.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.6 steals. His exploits were a major component in his team’s stunning start to the Playoffs, sweeping aside the Suns with frightening ease, before putting the reigning champions on notice with two convincing wins in Denver to begin this current series. Through the first six games of this postseason, (Head Coach) Chris Finch’s charges has bludgeoned the competition by a sizable margin of 15.5 points, keyed by efficient shooting (48.8%/37.6%) and relentless defensive pressure in which they relegated the opposition below 100 points in four of those contests. However, it still appears that the youth and immaturity that had beset them in each of their two previous playoff runs has reared its head once again, for the Wolves have utterly wasted an opportunity to at the very least own a commanding 3-1 lead as this series shifts back to Mile High. Game Three served as a cold dose of reality, as the hosts were embarrassed in their own gym, 90-117, while Sunday night’s 107-115 defeat saw them unable to maintain the energy of a furious opening salvo. Minnesota raced out to an early 15-9 lead only to see the visitors slowly take their measure and ruthlessly execute their gameplan; the Wolves shipped sixty-four points in the first half on a ridiculous 64.3% shooting, including 7-of-14 from beyond the arc (50.0%), with seventeen assists opposed to just six turnovers. The Wolves managed to cut the deficit to a modest seven points with just under a minute before intermission, only to inexplicably fall victim to an 8-0 run aided by a pair of disappointing turnovers, effectively summing up the last two losses in this series. The stifling defense that had thoroughly manhandled the Nuggets in Games One and Two was nowhere to be found over the weekend, yielding 116.0 points on 55.3% shooting and 46.6% from downtown, with 27.5 assists in comparison to just 11.0 turnovers. Furthermore, they are -18 on three-pointers, -4 in turnovers, including -1 in points off said turnovers, and -8 in points in the paint over these two affairs. With Edwards (44 points) doing everything he can to close the gap, the likes of (four-time All-Star Center) and the aforementioned Gobert will need to play to their potential; the former missed his first eight shots in the first half and ended up with just thirteen points on 5-of-18 shooting (27.8%), while the latter committed a team-high five turnovers and has proven unable to slow down Nikola Jokic (much more on him in a bit) since returning in this series after missing Game Two due to the birth of his child.
From a betting perspective, it appears that the Timberwolves have lost the favor of the public following their about-face in this series, as roughly 45% of all bets placed on tonight’s game are siding with Edwards & Co, while 44% of the money has followed suit. Despite their standing among the league’s best, this team has been a slightly above-average play against the spread, posting a 46-43-1 mark in that regard, which equates to a minor net loss of 1.18 units. As far as their performance against the spread is concerned, it has been a campaign of peaks and valleys for Minnesota, who since February 8th have seen three separate streaks of at least covers and a pair of stretches of four or more spread losses, which may be where they find themselves now. Finch’s troops began the postseason with a run of SIX consecutive covers, only to come crashing back down to Earth in these last two defeats to the Nuggets, both of which saw the hosts as favorites. With that being said, these Wolves have been an excellent play on the road, covering EIGHT of their last ten ventures away from Target Center, while coming just one cover shy of that mark in their past ten contests as an underdog, with both trends being relevant tonight. Furthermore, they are 7-3 versus the spread over their last ten meetings with Denver when receiving points from the oddsmakers, which is once again the case in this pivotal matchup. Historically, when a best-of-seven series is level at two games apiece, the victor of Game Five has gone to win said series 82% of the time, though this particular series is far rarer; the road team has won each of the first four outings on only FIVE occasions, with the most recent instance being the Clippers/Mavericks slugfest from the first round of the 2021 Playoffs. All-time, have only ever appeared in the Western Conference Semifinals once (2004), while owning a 1-2 record in series that are tied after four games.
Meanwhile, we’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: there is a certain aura that you achieve after winning and NBA Championship. A unique blend of experience and resilience that proves indispensable in the Playoffs, which is a commodity that the Nuggets (57-25, 2nd in Western Conference) are exuding in this particular matchup with their Northwest Division rivals. More so than any other team in the Association, the Wolves were constructed to be Denver’s foil, particularly given that they were built by (former nuggets executive) Tim Connelly, with size, length, and athleticism to combat the pillars of (Head Coach) Mike Malone’s rotation: (newly minted three-time MVP) Nikola Jokic and (postseason assassin) Jamal Murray (pictured together below). There were many around the league that felt that despite besting them 4-1 in the first round of last year’s Playoffs, Minnesota proved to be the most difficult opponent for the eventual champs, which was an opinion that built ridiculous momentum through the first two games of the Western Conference Semifinal. Simply put, Denver was DOMINATED in Games One and Two, as their ruthlessly efficient halfcourt offense was relegated to pedestrian levels of 89.5 points on 40.5% shooting, 20.0 assists, and 14.0 turnovers. Furthermore, they were -6 on three-pointers, -5 on turnovers and -9 in points off, -9 in fastbreak points, and a whopping -28 in points in the paint. However, as the scene shifted to Minneapolis and the whole world writing them off, Malone posed one simple question to his players: “What are you going to do about it?” Well, it has been hunting season ever since a 26-blowout in Game Two, as the Nuggets have thoroughly outclassed the Wolves in each of the two ensuing chapters of this series. Jokic & Co returned the favor with a 117-90 drubbing at Target Center in which they led by as many as THIRTY-FOUR points, before taking all the air out of the building early in a 115-107 affair on Sunday Night. Jokic has been described as a basketball genius with that title further cemented in his vivisection of the league’s toughest defense; the reigning MVP has led the charge for an attack that has burned down the nets on 55.3% shooting overall and 46.6% from downtown, assisting on 27.5 of their 44.0 field goals, while taking much better care of the basketball with an average of 11.0 turnovers. The towering Serbian has cracked the code against Minnesota, averaging 29.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 3.0 steals, and 2.0 blocks in those two contests, shooting a much healthier 56.8% from the field along the way. Game Four saw the supporting cast get into the action to boot, with (veteran Forward) Aaron Gordon putting forth twenty-seven points on a near-perfect 11-of-12 shooting (91.7%), seven rebounds, six assists, a steal, and a pair of blocks, while the (reserves) Christian Braun and Justin Holiday combined for twenty-one points 4-of-6 shooting from three (60.0%) of the bench.
From a betting perspective, the Nuggets have regained the confidence of the public, with approximately 55% of all bets wagered on tonight’s Game Five residing in the corner of the reigning champs, with and slighter greater share (56%) of the money following suit. Of course, this is a risky proposition, for no team has seen a greater disparity between their straight-up success and that against the spread; Denver owns a -21 difference in that regard, posting a mediocre 42-47-2 mark versus the spread, equating to a net loss of 8.82 units, which is currently the worst of any team left in this postseason. Granted, that is what happens when you are the defending champs, as the oddsmakers set the lines higher and higher to compensate for the public’s faith and favor. With that being said, it may appear that the tide could has turned on that front, for after failing to cover four consecutive games, Malone’s troops have strung together back-to-back covers for the third time since the middle of March. Unfortunately, a return to Ball Arena means that they are back to being favorites, which hasn’t been a profitable position for Jokic & Co, who are 0-5 against the spread in as many such affairs, while dropping four straight outings at home in that regard. On the injury front, while it certainly appears that he has rounded back into form, the health of the aforementioned Murray is worth monitoring. The sharpshooter has been playing through the effects of a strained left calf muscle throughout these playoffs, which apart from a number of crucial daggers, explains his sub-par shooting overall; Murray has netted just 40.0% of his attempts from the field and 31.5% of them from downtown, which are well below his regular season splits of 48.1% and 42.5%. Prior to these last two victories, he was knocking down just 37.5% of his shots, but since then has torched Minnesota on 50.0% shooting overall. Historically, the Nuggets are 5-7 all-time in the Western Conference Semifinals, including 3-4 when a series is square through four games. As we touched upon earlier, Denver is only the fifth team in NBA history to rally back to win Games Three and Four on the road after losing the previous two at home, which should prove to be a good omen; in each case, the team that came back to level the series also went on to claim complete victory.
Projected Outcome: Nuggets 108, Timberwolves 102
