7:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Celtics -15.5, Over/Under: 205.5
It seems that we could be privy to the first of four teams to advance to the Conference Finals in this affair in Beantown tonight, as the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers desperately attempt to prolong their fate against the top-seeded Boston Celtics, who are looking to simply take care of business in this Game Five of the Eastern Conference Semifinals from TD Garden. Despite being at the end of their line, let’s take a moment to reflect upon the campaign of the Cavaliers (48-34, 4th in Eastern Conference), who are about to embark on an offseason littered with questions. For the second season in a row, (Head Coach) J.B. Bickerstaff’s troops claimed the fourth seed in the East, though unlike last year’s embarrassing flameout in the Playoffs, they dug in and grinded out a grueling series victory against the young Magic, advancing to the Conference Semifinals for the first time since 1991 (sans LeBron James, of course). Cleveland ascended to this point on the strength of (All-Star Guard) Donovan Mitchell (pictured below), the maturation of (young Forward) Evan Mobley, and an improved supporting cast that brought some sorely needed shooting to the rotation. However, this matchup with the Celtics is proving to be a little more than they can chew as they are staring down the barrel of a gentlemen’s sweep in this return to Northeast. Through four games, the Cavs have put up a reasonable fight against the NBA’s best, averaging 102.0 points on 45.5% shooting, but if you take away their surprising 118-94 upset at TD Garden in Game Two, this series really hasn’t been close out all. Games One and Three saw them relegated below the century mark, while in their three defeats they’ve been outscored by a margin of 15.0 points, hooting 42.5% from the field and 30.1% from beyond the arc, while dishing out a mere 20.1 assists to boot. Furthermore, they are -15 on threes, -20 on free-throws, and -42 on the glass in those contests. Monday night’s 102-109 loss at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse felt like they exhausted the last bit of fight left in them: with Mitchell out of action (more on that in a bit), the hosts threw everything they had at Boston, attempting nearly FIFTY three-pointers (15-of-48), though it would ultimately prove to be inadequate. As a team, the Cavaliers shot 43.6%, with (veteran Guard) Darius Garland leading the way with thirty points on 12-of-27 shooting (44.4%), seven assists, and a pair of steals. Mobley added nineteen points and nine rebounds, while (veteran sniper) Max Strus finished with fifteen points, all but three of which coming from downtown. However, when you sell out from the perimeter in such a manner, you’re guaranteed to be lacking in other areas; Bickerstaff’s charges attempted a scant SEVEN free-throws, which led to a -16 disparity at the charity stripe, while all of the long rebounds that are typically a byproduct of treys, fell into the hands of the visiting side (-16). Seriously, despite attempting SIXTEEN more threes than the Celtics, they only outscored them by nine points, folks. We will give credit to the Cavs’ defense, which limited their opponent to as many assists (15) as turnovers, parlaying those takeaways into twenty-six points. In the past, that has proven to be the recipe for besting the shamrocks, though in this case it simply wasn’t enough to do so.
From a betting perspective, while many believe that the series will ultimately conclude tonight in Beantown, the public appears to be balking at such a large spread (15.5 points), with roughly 69% of all bets placed upon this matchup siding with the Cavaliers. With that being said, this is a team that has been largely mediocre this season against the spread, owning a 43-48-2 record in that regard, equating to a net loss of 8.91 units thus far. Simply put, Cleveland peaked back in the middle of the campaign when they went on a blistering 23-5 run between December 16th and the All-Star Break, a stretch that included eighteen covers. However, Bickerstaff’s troops are just 17-23 since the Break (including Playoffs), posting a 15-25 mark against the spread along the way. In fact, the Cavs have managed to win back-to-back games on a mere three occasions dating back to February 11th. And if that wasn’t enough, folks, here comes the knockout blow: Mobley & Co are both 3-7 versus the spread in their last ten games away from Northern Ohio and in as many outings as an underdog. On the injury front, they could very well be throwing in the proverbial towel, with a number of starters dealing with various maladies, including (veteran Center) Jarrett Allen (ribs) and (versatile Swingman) Caris LeVert (knee), though the most significant is Mitchell, who missed Monday night’s defeat due to a strained left calf muscle. All three are listed as questionable, though it should be noted that Allen has yet to feature in this series. As for Mitchell, this is a disappointing way to end not only the campaign, but potentially his stay with the franchise. Ever since arriving to Cleveland via trade in the Summer of 2022, the All-Star has been linked with moves to a host of destinations, which is a situation that has become all the more relevant given that he is entering the final year of his current contract (there is a player option for 2025-2026). It will take A LOT of money to retain the services of the 27-year-old, with (General Manager) Koby Altman needing to balance the future of the franchise. Can they continue to grow around Mitchell if they make such a sizable investment given the harsh realities of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, or do they move him for assets to build around the much younger Mobley? Either way, this offseason figures to be a HUGE one for the Cavaliers…
Meanwhile, apart from some minor hiccups at TD Garden, the Playoffs has unfolded as many it predicted it would for the Celtics (64-18, 1st in Eastern Conference), who have been by far and away the most impressive team in the NBA this season. Boston clinched homecourt throughout the East with nearly a month left to play, before securing the number one overall seed in the postseason with nearly ten games to go. When you consider all the chaos that has transpired throughout the rest of playing field in the East, one cannot help but admit that it is shaping up for (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla’s troops to make a serious run. Despite drawing their bitter rivals, Miami, in the first round, they swiftly eliminated the reigning Eastern Champions with ease in five games and appear to be on the verge of doing so once more in this matchup against Cleveland. Through four games, the shamrocks have averaged 107.3 points on 47.6% shooting, including 34.7% from beyond the arc, while dishing out just 20.3 assists, which are all well below their standard from the regular season. (All-NBA Swingman) Jayson Tatum has been a bit underwhelming in this series, shooting just 41.9% from the field and a dismal 23.1% from three. However, that hasn’t deterred the Celtics from taking care of business. Even with Tatum struggling from a shooting perspective, he’s made up for it in other departments, including rebounds (10.5), assists (5.5), blocks (1.3) and above all else free-throws (31-of-33), while the rest of his teammates have certainly come to play, particularly (veteran Guards) Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White. By any metric, Brown (pictured below with Tatum) has been sublime, scoring 26.5 points on a scintillating 61.2% shooting overall, while Holiday and White have added 13.0 points apiece. Together, that triumvirate has accounted for the bulk of Boston’s firepower from the perimeter, combining for 29-of-71 shooting from downtown (40.8%). In their three victories in this series, Mazzulla’s charges have beaten Cleveland by an average margin of 15.0 points thanks in large part to their performance from long-range (43-of-112 3FG) which is good for 38.3% in comparison to a dreadful 8-of-35 in that aforementioned loss in Game Two. With that being said, Monday night’s 109-102 victory was the toughest to come by, even if they led for the majority of the affair. Despite throwing away the basketball fifteen times for twenty-six points for their biggest disparity in the postseason (-12), the Celtics held firm control of this game by getting to the charity stripe where they knocked down 21-of-24 free-throws (+16), while bullying the Cavs on the glass with 48 rebounds (also +16) and thriving in transition with twenty-two fastbreak points (+7). This affair also Tatum regain his shooting touch somewhat, netting 11-of-25 attempts (44.0%) en route to a game-high thirty-three points, along with eleven rebounds, five assists, and a perfect 9-of-9 from the line. Brown added twenty-seven points of his own on 9-of-15 shooting (60.0%), while Holiday chipped in with sixteen to boot, with the Backcourt duo combining for 6-of-11 shooting from three (54.5%).
From a betting perspective, the Celtics are universally expected to take care of business tonight, but covering that sizable spread is a task that has given the public pause, with just 33% of all the green wagered upon this Game Five siding with the team clad in emerald. Despite owning the best (straight-up) record in the Association by a wide margin, Boston has barely been a profitable play against the spread this season, posting a 47-40-4 mark in that regard, equating to a net profit of 2.73 units. Of course, no team has seen more double-digit spreads than Mazzulla’s troops, who were favored by 10+ points on THIRTY-NINE occasions, owning a 21-16-2 ledger against the spread, including 4-3 in these Playoffs. Tatum & Co are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six outings when their opponent has been relegated below 100 points in the previous contest, though is just 2-7-1 on that front over the course of their last ten meetings with the Cavaliers. On the injury front, the only absence continues to be that of (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis, who has yet to feature in this series after suffering a right soleus strain towards the end of the previous series. It speaks to the Celtics’ talent and depth that they haven’t needed to entertain the idea of risking the towering Latvian, which should prove beneficial come the Eastern Conference Finals next week. The 28-year-old averaged 20.1 points on 51.6% shooting and 37.5% from three, 7.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.9 blocks in his first season with Boston, with his spacing and rim protection being a significant part of Mazzulla’s machinations. Historically speaking, this is a franchise that has NEVER lost a series after taking a 3-1 lead, which further supports the common opinion that they will be advancing to their NBA-record THIRTY-NINTH Conference Final.
Projected Outcome: Celtics 118, Cavaliers 96
