8:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Pacers -5.5, Over/Under: 215.5
The Eastern Conference Semifinals could potentially come to a close tonight in Indianapolis, as the second-seeded New York Knicks look to punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in a quarter century, while the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers are simply trying to survive and force a decisive seventh game. The basketball renaissance that is occurring in the Big Apple is on the verge of reaching overwhelming levels, folks, as the Knicks (50-32, 2nd in Eastern Conference) stand one game away from advancing to the Conference Finals for the first time since 2000. Needless to say, it has been a largely barren twenty-five years for one of the NBA’s most decorated franchises, with just eight postseason appearances during that stretch. However, three of them have come in the last four years, which is a testament to the job that (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau and (Lead Executive) Leon Rose have done in raising these Knickerbockers from the proverbial ashes. Has New York benefitted greatly from how the Playoffs have played out? Absolutely, but it isn’t as if they haven’t dealt with their own trials and tribulations. Simply put, this is NOT the deepest team in the Association, while Thibodeau has long had a reputation for running the core of his rotation into the ground, which has oftentimes come back to bite him in the @$$ this time of year. In this series alone, the Knicks have five players logging 33+ minutes a night, with only two other figures clocking over twenty (and one of them is now out for the season). However, this is a team that is absolutely BUILT for this kind of basketball; New York operated at the slowest pace (95.2 possessions per 48 minutes) in the league during the regular season, which has fueled their second-ranked defense (108.2) and bullish nature on the offensive glass (29.4%, 1st Overall). Leading the charge is a triumvirate of collegiate teammates: Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, and Josh Hart, who appear to have played EVERY minute of this series (37+ minutes apiece), combining for 67.2 points, 19.8 rebounds, 13.6 assists, and 3.8 steals. The trio was fundamental in the Knicks’ 121-91 victory in Game Five, accounting for seventy-nine points, sixteen rebounds, and fourteen assists, while shooting a cumulative 32-of-66 from the floor (48.8%). For the FIFTH time in these Playoffs, Brunson (pictured below) erupted for 40+ points, leading the hosts with forty-four points on 18-of-35 shooting (51.4%), along with four rebounds and seven assists. In the end, this was a game that was won on the offensive glass, where Thibodeau’s charges secured TWENTY boards of that variety, fifteen more than the visitors, which (when coupled with eighteen turnovers) afforded them a staggering TWENTY-NINE more field goal attempts. Credit goes to (veteran Center) Isaiah Hartenstein, who posted a career-high TWELVE offensive rebounds on the night. Furthermore, offensive boards lead to a lot of easy second-chance points in the paint, where the home side owned a commanding 62-36 edge.
From a betting perspective, it appears that the public pendulum has swung back in favor of the Knicks following their dominant performance at MSG, with roughly 67% of all bets wagered upon tonight’s potential series finale siding with the visitors. New York has been remarkably consistent between their straight-up and spread successes, with just six games separating the two records. Thibodeau’s troops are 51-41-1 versus the spread this season, equating to a net profit of 5.36 units. With that being said, it should be stated that this is a team that has managed back-to-back covers once in their last thirteen contests, while owning a 1-5 record against the spread in their last six games following a cover. Furthermore, these Knickerbockers have logged a disappointing 3-7 mark in that regard in their past ten games as an underdog against Indiana. On the injury front, it really is remarkable that this group managed to bounce back in such a manner on Tuesday Night, particularly given how thin their rotation really is. Thibodeau will never be confused with a coach that is willing to dive deep into his bench, especially in the Playoffs, but he is being forced to rethink that approach now given the absences of (Forwards) Julius Randle (shoulder) and Bojan Bogdanovic (foot/wrist), (bruising Center) Mitchell Robinson (ankle), and (two-way dynamo) O.G. Anunoby (hamstring). Of that group, Anunoby is the only one with any chance of returning this postseason, though his strained hamstring will sideline him for at least ONE more contest. Acquired at the trade deadline from Toronto for no small cache of players and picks, the 26-year-old is a proper force on the wings when he is healthy, averaging 16.4 points on 49.5% shooting and 39.5% from downtown, 6.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.1 blocks during this playoff run. Historically, the Knicks are 20-21 all-time in clinching games of a best-of-seven series, including 1-1 thus far in the postseason. Furthermore, they are 2-1 against the Pacers in such affairs, which all occurred during their bitter rivalry from the 1990s, including Game Six of the 1999 Eastern Conference Finals, a 90-82 slugfest at Madison Square Garden.
Meanwhile, the Playoffs have a habit of making teams pay for their youth and inexperience, which brings us to the Pacers (47-35, 6th in Eastern Conference). After drawing level in this series thanks to an absolute DRUBBING (121-89) of the Knicks in Game Four, Indiana was presented with a golden opportunity to put their foot on the proverbial neck of a wounded opponent and take control of this overall affair. After all, when a best-of-seven series is tied through four contests, the winner of the fifth game has gone on to win said series 82% of the time. So, with that in mind, what did (Head Coach) Rick Carlisle’s troops do, you ask? They basically ran the previous game back… in REVERSE. Indeed, after blasting New York by thirty-two points, they were run out of Madison Square Garden in a 30-point blowout loss two days later. Believe it or not, Tuesday night’s return to the Big Apple was relatively close early, as the visitors trailed 32-38 heading into the second quarter. However, that is where everything fell apart for Indy, who were outscored 83-59 the rest of the way, shooting just 20-of-52 from the field (38.6%). We covered earlier how badly they were manhandled on the glass, which led to such a disparity in field goal attempts between the two sides (-29), but that has been a constant in the series as a whole; the Pacers have struggled on the defensive glass with a dismal 68.1% rebounding percentage on that end of the hardwood, which has allowed the Knicks to keep pace in terms of shot attempts against an opponent that led the league in scoring (120.2) and, well, pace (101.7 possession per 48 minutes). However, the biggest reason for this debacle was their own inability to take care of the basketball. Sure, Carlisle has got to be disappointed that they shipped so many second-chance opportunities to New York, but anytime you lose the turnover battle 18-9, you are more than likely going to lose in the postseason. How rare was that performance for Indiana? This is a team that led the NBA in assists (30.8) and as such generally takes great care of the rock despite pushing the tempo so much, with just EIGHT games all season featuring 18+ turnovers. Hell, their previous high in these Playoffs was fourteen, which ironically came in Sunday’s blowout at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Making matters worse, Indy saw those errors manufactured into TWENTY-FOUR points to their opposition, which is nothing short of fatal in these games. Eleven different players logged a turnover including two charged to (All-Star Guard) Tyrese Haliburton, who finished the night with thirteen points and just five assists. Keep in mind that Haliburton (pictured below) is the proverbial head of the snake for this attack, leading the NBA in assists during the regular season (10.9). When he is held to five or fewer dimes, this is a team that is 5-6 thus far (including playoffs). (Veteran Swingman) Pascal Siakam did produce a solid line of twenty-two points and eight rebounds, but the highest-scoring bench in the Association (46.6), was very disappointing, as they were outscored by New York’s reserves (27-21) despite the home side’s largely reported lack of depth.
From a betting perspective, after getting blown out in a crucial Game Five, the public isn’t backing these Pacers much at all, folks, as approximately 38% of the total money wagered upon tonight’s potential finale favors the hosts. On the season, Indiana has been a solid if unspectacular play against the spread over these past seven months, posting a 49-42-2 record, equating to a slim net profit of 2.55 units. Perhaps a return home will get them back in the good graces of the betting community, for this is a team that has covered seven of their last ten outings contested at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, while matching that mark over their last ten games in which they are favored over New York. Furthermore, Carlisle’s charges have been resilient after getting blown out, covering four consecutive contests following a straight-up defeat of 10+ points. On the injury front, Indy is largely healthy with the only absence being that of (Sophomore Swingman) Benedict Mathurin, who has been sidelined since early March recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum. Though he has looked healthier of late, the status of Haliburton has continued to be an ongoing topic throughout this postseason, with the floor general dealing with back spasms at varying points of the past six weeks. Haliburton was held below 44.0% shooting in five of the first seven games of these playoffs but has since shot an efficient 55.1% overall and 43.9% from downtown over the past four affairs against the Knicks. Historically, the Pacers are 8-17 all-time in games within a best-of-seven series in which they are facing elimination, which includes two consecutive defeats dating back to the first round of the 2019 playoffs. As we stated earlier, they are 1-2 in such contests against the Knicks, with their lone victory being Game Seven of the 1995 Eastern Conference Semifinals, a 97-95 thriller from MSG.
Projected Outcome: Pacers 115, Knicks 106
