8:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Nuggets -4.5, Over/Under: 199.5
After six largely lopsided chapters, this series will be coming to a close tonight in Denver, as the second-seeded (reigning NBA Champion) Nuggets play host to the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in this Game Seven finale to the Western Conference Semifinals from Ball Arena. Oh, what a season it has been for the Timberwolves (56-26, 3rd in Western Conference), who have been enjoying a welcome renaissance for months now, posting their best record in two decades and advancing to the second round of the Playoffs for the time in as many years. Indeed, Minnesota has emerged as one of the most decorated outfits in the league this term, sporting the Association’s top overall defense in both points allowed (106.5) and defensive rating (109.0), with the likes of (towering Center) Rudy Gobert taking home his FOURTH Defensive Player of the Year honors, while (stellar backup Forward) Naz Reid earned Sixth Man of the Year to boot. Furthermore, (All-Star Guard) Anthony Edwards has vaulted himself into the realm of superstardom, particularly during the postseason, where he has been drawing comparisons to many legends of the game. Still only twenty-two years of age, Edwards (pictured below) has followed up a regular season in which posted career-highs in a slew of categories including points (25.9), field goal percentage (46.1%), free-throw percentage (83.6%) and assists (5.1), has raised the bar in these Playoffs with 30.2 points on 53.5% shooting, including 42.5% from three, 6.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.0 steals. His exploits were a major component in his team’s stunning start to the Playoffs, sweeping aside the Suns with frightening ease, before putting the reigning champions on notice with two convincing wins in Denver to begin this current series. However, adversity finally arrived in the form of three consecutive defeats to the defending champs, placing (Head Coach) Chris Finch’s troops on the brink of elimination. Between Games Three and Five, their relentless defense was vivisected by the Nuggets, who erupted for 114.7 points on 55.2% shooting from the field, including 46.8% from beyond the arc, where they were +21 points, while dishing out a healthy 28.3 assists in comparison to committing just 11.0 turnovers. Thankfully, a return to Target Center presented them with an opportunity to course correct, which they did in Thursday night’s 115-70 blowout victory. The hosts held Denver to just 30.2% shooting overall and 7-of-36 from downtown (19.4%), where they turned the tables and edged them TWENTY-FOUR points. Furthermore, the Wolves dominated the glass (+19), and made the most of the twelve turnovers that they forced, which parlayed into a 19-3 disparity in points off said takeaways. Indeed, the return of (veteran Point Guard) Mike Conley (much more on him in a bit) had a profound effect on the attack, which took much better care of the basketball, committing a mere six turnovers, which would match their lowest total of errors of the season. Edwards led the way with twenty-seven points on 8-of-17 shooting (47.1%) and 4-of-9 from three (44.4%), four rebounds, four assists, and three steals, while (underrated Swingman) Jaden McDaniels added twenty-one points on 8-of-10 shooting (80.0%). As for Gobert and (fellow big man) Karl-Anthony Towns, who each taken their share of criticism of late, combined for eighteen points and twenty-seven rebounds.
From a betting perspective, it appears that the public is as split as this series has been, with roughly 47% of all bets wagered upon tonight’s finale at Ball Arena siding with the Timberwolves. Of course, this has been a largely average team against the spread this season, posting a 47-44-1 record in that regard, equating to a net loss of just 1.27 units. Since February 23rd, Minnesota has seen peaks and valleys when comes to their success versus the spread, enjoying a pair of runs consisting of six consecutive covers, while also enduring a 1-8 stretch followed by a 3-8 malaise a few weeks later. With that being said, the road has been kind to Finch’s troops, who have covered the line in seven of their past ten trips away from Minneapolis, while matching that mark in their last ten outings as an underdog. Furthermore, these Wolves have fared well in this role against the Nuggets, owning a 7-3 ledger in their last ten meetings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. On the injury front, keep an eye on the aforementioned Conley, who missed Game Five due to soreness in his left Achilles, only to return in Thursday night’s victory. The 36-year-old logged just under thirty-two minutes of action en route to totaling thirteen points, four rebounds, and five assists. How important is he to the rotation, you ask? Well, the vet’s presence has often had a calming influence on a group that has developed a penchant for self-destructing in the past, as Minnesota committed fourteen turnovers in Game Five without him in comparison to a mere SIX with him back in the lineup on Thursday night. Historically, this is only the second Game Seven in Timberwolves franchise history; back in the 2004 Western Conference Semifinals, (Hall of Famer) Kevin Garnett led them to a grueling 83-80 victory over the Kings in an MVP-caliber performance consisting of thirty-two points, twenty-one rebounds, four steals, and five blocks.
Meanwhile, Game Sevens oftentimes favor experience, which is a commodity that the Nuggets (57-25, 2nd in Western Conference) have in spades at this point. Nearly a year after winning their first Larry O’Brien Trophy in franchise history, Denver won’t be panicking in this series finale, even if they have been beaten rather soundly in their three defeats thus far. Games One, Two, and Six saw the reigning champs bested by an average margin of 26.0 points, thanks in large to the erosion of what has typically been such a ruthlessly efficient offense. Let’s take a look at the numbers, shall we? In their three victories in this affair, (Head Coach) Mike Malone’s troops averaged 114.7 points on a healthy 55.2% from the field, including 46.8% from beyond the arc, with 28.3 assists in comparison to committing a mere 11.0 turnovers, while owning a slim edge on the glass (+0.6). However, they have been downright unrecognizable in their three losses, mustering a dismal 83.0 points on 36.8% shooting overall and 33.3% from three, 19.3 assists opposed to 13.3 turnovers, while lagging well behind in a slew of categories, including rebounds (-19), three-pointers (-30), points off turnovers (-25), points in the paint (-38), and points off turnovers (-16). Thursday night’s 70-115 loss was by far and away the ugliest of the trio, as the visitors were relegated to season-lows in points (70), field goals (26), and field goal percentage (30.2%), while shooting just 7-of-36 from the perimeter (19.4%), with eighteen assists. (Three-time MVP) Nikola Jokic was fairly subdued by his standards, totaling twenty-two points on 9-of-19 shooting (47.4%), nine rebounds, and more turnovers (3) than assists (2). Generally, that correlation has served as the barometer for success for Denver, for when Jokic (pictured below) is making an impact as a facilitator, this team is nigh unstoppable. The towering Serbian has been held below six assists on just twelve occasions this season, with the Nuggets posting a mediocre 6-6 record along the way. Furthermore, it is no coincidence that this postseason low also matched his regular season nadir, which also came against the Timberwolves. As a result, the supporting cast simply couldn’t get anything going, for apart from (veteran Forward) Aaron Gordon, who has been AWESOME in this series, the rest of the team could offer thirty-six points on 13-of-60 shooting from the field (21.6%). (Veteran Guard) Jamal Murray, whose pair of daggers in their first-round conquest of the Lakers were truly the stuff of legend, was rather hard to watch in this Game Six, logging ten points on 4-of-18 shooting (22.2%) and 2-of-7 from three (28.6%), while (sharpshooting Forward) Michael Porter Jr was even worse with eight points on 3-of-9 shooting (33.3%) and 1-of-6 on treys (16.7%).
From a betting perspective, the public couldn’t be more torn between these sides in terms of the total money wagered on this Game Seven, with 50% of all green riding with the Nuggets. However, this has been a risky proposition all season, folks, for despite owning the top record in the Western Conference, Denver has been a sub-.500 unit against the spread, owning a disappointing 43-48-2 mark in that regard, equating to a net loss of 8.91 units. In these Playoffs alone, they are only 5-6 versus the spread, including 3-3 in this series. The altitude at Ball Arena hasn’t been very kind to them of late either, with just one cover in their last five home contests, while splitting their past ten meetings with Minnesota against the spread. Furthermore, Malone’s charges are just 1-5 versus the spread in their last six outings as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, so keep an eye on that line if it happens to make the leap from where it currently resides (-4.5). On the injury front, this is a largely healthy team, though the ongoing fitness of the aforementioned Murray is worth monitoring. The sharpshooting Guard has been slowed by an ailing calf muscle throughout these Playoffs, shooting a cumulative 39.2% from the field and 31.1% from beyond the arc through eleven games. However, it appeared that he had snapped out of it in Games Four and Five, netting 48.4% of his shots and 42.9% from downtown, only to revert back to pedestrian levels in Thursday night’s defeat in Minneapolis (22.2%/28.6%). As we’ve seen in the past, when this guy is healthy, he can be downright decisive, but this inconsistent play is a big reason why the Nuggets find themselves in their current predicament. Historically, Denver is 4-3 all-time in Game Sevens, which is notable given that four of those affairs have come during the Jokic Era, including three victories; he and his teammates secured such triumphs in successive series during their inspired postseason run during the 2020 Bubble, eliminating both the Jazz and Clippers in seven games. In Game Sevens, Jokic has averaged 24.0 points on 42.0% shooting, 16.0 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 2.5 blocks.
Projected Outcome: Nuggets 109, Timberwolves 102
