8:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Wolves -4.5, Over/Under: 207.5
The Western Conference Finals begin with aplomb tonight in Minneapolis, as the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves host the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks in Game One of what is expected to be an entertaining series beginning at Target Center. After missing the postseason altogether last year, it is clear that the Mavericks (50-32, 5th in Western Conference) have addressed their weaknesses and returned to the Playoffs as a much stronger unit than before, thanks to an infusion of size and balance. It’s no secret that (All-NBA Guards) Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are the proverbial engine that powers Dallas, with the former leading the NBA in scoring (33.9) and the latter continuing to be a modicum of efficiency at 25.6 points on 49.7%/41.1%/90.5% shooting splits. Simply put, there isn’t a more prolific tandem in the league, with both capable of singlehandedly destroying the opponent’s gameplan. However, even with this dynamic duo firing on all cylinders, the difference between these Mavs and their predecessors who faded woefully down the stretch after acquiring Irving via midseason trade, is twofold. First, (Head Coach) Jason Kidd and (General Manager) Nico Harrison have done a tremendous of restocking the rotation after dismantling it to add Kyrie to the fold sixteen months ago. (Rookie Center) Dereck Lively Jr. has been a budding performer since he was picked twelfth overall in last June’s NBA Draft, while (veteran Center) Daniel Gafford and (young Forward) P.J. Washington have become valuable members of Kidd’s lineup since being acquired in separate deals at the Trade Deadline. As a result, these Mavericks are bigger, longer, and much more athletic along the front line and the wings than they were a year ago, which has helped shape them into a more formidable defensive team, yielding 107.4 points on 44.8% shooting, including 35.9% from downtown, with a +1.5 advantage on the glass over the final twenty games of the regular season (16-4). The other key to this run has been Kidd’s insistence that they play faster. During the Doncic Era, this has been one of the slowest teams in the Association, as the Slovenian maestro pulled the strings of the attack at his own rate. Over the previous three seasons, they ranked twenty-fourth, thirtieth, and twenty-eighth in pace, which is your average volume of possessions over the course of forty-eight minutes. Appropriately, Kidd, who was one of the greatest fastbreak masterminds in NBA history, has overseen a revolution in this department, with Dallas now logging 100.1 possessions per forty-eight minutes, the sixth-fastest pace in the league. However, that hasn’t been the case in each of their previous two series in this postseason in which they eliminated the Clippers and Thunder in six games apiece, where their reversion to slower, halfcourt basketball has given them the edge. The Mavs have averaged just 106.5 points on a modest 45.9% shooting with 22.9 assists thus far, riding the playmaking nous of Doncic and Irving (pictured together below), with the timely shot-making of Washington and the rest of the supporting cast proving to be the difference. The 25-year-old has really come into his own in the Playoffs, logging 14.3 points and 6.8 rebounds, while netting 40.7% of his treys, which came in handy against the Thunder, as he was fouled on a controversial attempt from the corner in the waning moments of Game Six on Saturday night. Trailing 115-116 with just two seconds left to play, Washington was fouled by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, sending him to the charity stripe where he knocked down two of the three free-throws, which was enough to clinch the series. The hosts shot 51.2% from the field in this one, including 16-of-34 from three (47.1%), while making up for seventeen turnovers with a helluva performance on the offensive glass, securing fourteen offensive rebounds. As we know, those kinds of boards oftentimes lead to easy second-chance points, which helped level the playing field for Dallas, Gafford and Lively accounting for eight of them. As for Doncic, he finished with a triple double (29/10/10), while Irving wasn’t far behind with twenty-two points, with (journeyman Forward) Derrick Jones matching that scoring output in a surprising turn of events.
From a betting perspective, the Mavericks have been all but forgotten by the public in this opening chapter of the Western Finals, with roughly 20% of all bets wagered residing in North Texas. With that being said, Dallas has been the most profitable team left in these playoffs by far, owning a 55-39 record against the spread, equating to a net haul of 11.0 units. Furthermore, since February 5th, this is a team that is a staggering 31-14 versus the spread, including 7-5 in the postseason. The road has been good to Kidd’s troops, who have covered four of their last five ventures away from American Airlines Center, while posting a 7-3 mark in their last ten outings as an underdog and covering four consecutive contests following a spread defeat. However, it should also be noted that this particular round of the playoffs has been tricky for the Mavs, who have failed to cover all but one of their last six tilts in the WCF. As for this matchup with the Wolves, they won only one of their four meetings from the regular season, though all of them took place before that transformative Trade Deadline, while Irving participated in one of them to boot, which coincidentally their lone victory. For those wondering, Doncic featured in two of those encounters, averaging a robust 36.5 points on an efficient 50.9% shooting and 7-of-19 from downtown (36.8%), along with 6.0 rebounds and 10.5 assists, though 5.5 turnovers as well. On the injury front, it remains to be seen if (veteran Center) Maxi Kleber will return to fitness at any point in this series, with the sharpshooting big fella sidelined by a sprained AC joint in shooting shoulder causing him to miss the whole of the previous series. Historically, the Mavericks are 2-3 all-time in the Western Conference Finals, with their most recent appearance coming two years ago in the 2022 WCF where they were eliminated in five games at the hands of the (eventual champion) Warriors. Furthermore, the only previous postseason meeting between these franchises came in the 2002 first round, a three-game sweep by the Mavs.
Meanwhile, oh, what a season it has been for the Timberwolves (56-26, 3rd in Western Conference), who have been enjoying a welcome renaissance for months now, posting their best record in two decades and advancing to the second round of the Playoffs for the time in as many years. Indeed, Minnesota has emerged as one of the most decorated outfits in the league this term, sporting the Association’s top overall defense in both points allowed (106.5) and defensive rating (109.0), with the likes of (towering Center) Rudy Gobert taking home his FOURTH Defensive Player of the Year honors, while (stellar backup Forward) Naz Reid earned Sixth Man of the Year to boot. Furthermore, (All-Star Guard) Anthony Edwards has vaulted himself into the realm of superstardom, particularly during the postseason, where he has been drawing comparisons to many legends of the game. Still only twenty-two years of age, Edwards (pictured below) has followed up a regular season in which posted career-highs in a slew of categories including points (25.9), field goal percentage (46.1%), free-throw percentage (83.6%) and assists (5.1), has raised the bar in these Playoffs with 30.2 points on 53.5% shooting, including 42.5% from three, 6.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.0 steals. His exploits were a major component in his team’s stunning start to the Playoffs, sweeping aside the Suns with frightening ease, before putting the reigning champions on notice with two convincing wins in Denver to begin this current series. However, adversity finally arrived in the form of three consecutive defeats to the defending champs, placing (Head Coach) Chris Finch’s troops on the brink of elimination. Between Games Three and Five, their relentless defense was vivisected by the Nuggets, who erupted for 114.7 points on 55.2% shooting from the field, including 46.8% from beyond the arc, where they were +21 points, while dishing out a healthy 28.3 assists in comparison to committing just 11.0 turnovers. Thankfully, Games Six and Seven proved to be VERY different stories, for after embarrassing the champs at Target Center in a 115-70 affair, they authored one of the most memorable comebacks in playoff history to win this series over the weekend. Trailing by as many as twenty points in the third quarter, Minnesota proceeded to relegate the hosts to just thirty-nine second half points in what amounted to a stunning 30-point swing. Over the final two periods, the Wolves shot 46.3% from the field, with advantages from downtown (+6) and from the charity stripe (+11), with eight offensive rebounds and eleven assists opposed to five turnovers, while their relentless defense returned to form in shipping 35.9% shooting, including 4-of-21 from three (19.0%). Four different players scored in double-figures during this stretch, led by Edwards, who bounced back from a slow start, and (unheralded Swingman) Jayden McDaniels, who erupted for thirteen points on perfect 3-of-3 shooting and five free-throws. Gobert, Reid, (fellow big man) Karl-Anthony Towns, and (veteran Point Guard) Mike Conley all had HUGE moments on both ends of the court during this run, with Towns providing inspired defense on (three-time MVP) Nikola Jokic as well as a furious put-back slam in the waning moments of the fourth stanza.
From a betting perspective, the public has fallen back in love with the Timberwolves after rallying to dethrone the reigning champs, as a commanding 87% of all the money wagered on tonight’s Game One residing in Minneapolis. Though they were one game off the best record in the Western Conference, this is a team that was slightly above average against the spread, posting a 48-44-1 record in that regard, equating to a net loss of 0.36 units. Peaks and valleys have served as the characterization for Minnesota on that front, with a pair of stretches consisting of six consecutive covers buoyed by disappointing runs of at least eight spread losses in ten games. For instance, after starting these Playoffs with SIX straight spread victories, they failed to cover three in a row against Denver, only to turn the tables and author back-to-back covers to close the Western Semifinals. Looking at this particular matchup, the Wolves have split their last ten meetings with the Mavs against the spread, while taking six of them straight-up, including three of their four regular season meetings this year. However, as we detailed earlier, one shouldn’t read too much into those encounters given that Dallas has completely transformed themselves since the Trade Deadline and their stars only participated in half of the games. For what it is worth, Finch’s outfit did tremendous job defensively in limiting their opponent to 103.3 points on 44.5% shooting and 31.3% from three, while the aforementioned Edwards started all four of those affairs, averaging 24.5 points on 43.2% shooting, though the bulk of his damage came beyond the arc (10-of-22 3FG) and from the charity stripe (24-of-33 FT). Historically, the Timberwolves met defeat in their only other appearance in the Western Conference Finals, falling to the Lakers in six games twenty-one years ago.
Projected Outcome: Timberwolves 113, Mavericks 101
