8:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Timberwolves -5.5, Over/Under: 207.5
After a tightly contested opener to this series, the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves and the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks get set for tipoff of tonight’s sequel, with the former looking to level the series at home while the latter has designs on taking a commanding lead in this Game Two of the Western Conference Finals from Target Center in Minneapolis. My, oh my, what a difference a year has made for the Mavericks (50-32, 5th in Western Conference). This time last May, this was a franchise that had flatlined down the stretch after putting their proverbial cards on the table and acquiring the services of (All-Star Guard) Kyrie Irving at the Trade Deadline. However, (General Manager) Nico Harrison and (Head Coach) Jason Kidd were forced to part ways with much of their supporting cast in order pair the veteran alongside (reigning scoring champion) Luka Doncic, which played a major role in their tailspin. However, Kidd and Harrison addressed those issues in a major way in the offseason and at the trade deadline, adding the likes of (Rookie Center) Dereck Lively Jr along with (veteran Forwards) P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr, and Daniel Gafford, completely transforming the rotation with a slew of rangy, athletic big men that have blended seamlessly with Doncic and Irving (pictured below). Their inclusion has allowed that dynamic duo to really flex their muscles, which is precisely what they did in Wednesday night’s 108-105 victory in Game One, combining for SIXTY-THREE points on 24-of-49 shooting (48.9%), eleven rebounds, and twelve assists. Irving was hot early, pouring in twenty-four points in the first half, while Doncic served as the closer with fifteen points in a fourth period in which the Mavs went on a 13-0 run to retake the lead. It was just the second time in franchise playoff history in which two teammates scored 30+ points apiece. Just how impactful were they, you ask? Doncic and Irving scored or assisted on EIGHTY-EIGHT of the visitor’s 108 total points, which equates to 81.4%, folks. Interestingly, Dallas did the bulk of their damage in the paint (62-38), which is interesting because Kidd’s troops attempted just twenty-five treys, making only six of them, which stands as their second-lowest total of attempts all season. As for the supporting cast, Washington was solid with thirteen points, seven rebounds, and a pair of blocks, while Gafford added ten points and nine rebounds, for being of the offensive variety. However, Lively was the most notable of these second-tier contributors, playing well beyond his years with nine points, on a perfect 4-of-4 shooting, eleven rebounds (4 offensive), three assists, and two blocks in 26:31 of game time.
From a betting perspective, the public appears to be shifting towards the Mavericks after their win in the opener, as 42% of all bets wagered on this Game Two siding with Doncic & Co, which is a lot higher than in its predecessor (20%). Of course, Dallas has been a very profitable team all season, owning a 56-39 record against the spread, equating to a net haul of 11.91 units. Hell, since February 5th, this is a team that is a staggering 32-14 versus the spread, including 8-5 in the playoffs. The road has been good to Kidd’s charges, who have covered five of their last six trips away from American Airlines Center, while owning a stellar 8-2 record in that regard over their past ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. In injury-related news, (veteran Center) Maxi Kleber is highly unlikely to be back on the hardwood at any point in this series, with the German International beset by a sprained AC joint in shooting shoulder causing him to miss the entirety of the previous series. Historically, the Mavericks are 11-5 all-time in series after winning the opener, which is certainly a departure for Kidd, who snapped a 5-game losing streak in Game Ones. Dallas is 2-3 in their five previous appearances in the Western Conference Finals, with Wednesday night’s victory marking the third time that they’ve kicked off this stage of the postseason with a win.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves’ (56-26, 3rd in Western Conference) struggles at home continued in Wednesday night’s opener, as they dropped their third game at Target Center in four tries. Make no mistake Minnesota have been VERY impressive during these playoffs, from their stunning sweep of Phoenix in the first round, to their conquest of (reigning NBA Champion) Denver, taking THREE games on the road, including a thrilling Game Seven in which they overcame a 20-point deficit in the second half. However, the lack of maturity that had characterized them in the past has reared its head of late, which was the case with their 105-108 defeat in Game One of this Western Final. Despite owning advantages in a slew of categories, including three-pointers (+36), assists (+2), turnovers (+3), points off turnovers (+5), and fastbreak points (+3), the Wolves failed to assert their size and length, evidenced by getting outscored twenty-four points in the paint, which is shocking when you consider the presence of (four-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert and (fellow 7-footer) Karl-Anthony Towns. No, this was a game where (Head Coach) Chris Finch will be disappointed to see that his team settled for largely perimeter shots, attempting FORTY-NINE treys, which is three more than their season-high and nine more than their highwater mark in the playoffs. For those wondering, this is a team that is 4-5 when attempting 41+ triples. On the night, the hosts shot just 42.7% from the field, with (All-Star Guard) Anthony Edwards and Towns combining for thirty-five points on a dismal 12-of-36 shooting (33.3%). Edwards (pictured below) has been a supernova in this postseason, but it was disappointing to watch him settle for a dozen treys with Dallas essentially playing a box-and-one defense to deter him from driving to the paint. Credit to the 22-year-old for influencing the game in other ways, totaling eleven rebounds, eight assists, and a pair steals. Another factor that tilted the balance away from the home side was five turnovers in the fourth quarter after committing only five in the three previous frames combined.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves still hold the public’s favor, just not as much as they had heading into Wednesday night’s affair, with approximately 61% of all the money wagered on this sequel placed upon the hosts. The people could finally be learning a thing or two about a team that has been slightly above average against the spread this season, posting a 48-45-1 mark on that front parlaying to a net loss of 1.36 units. Furthermore, after winning and covering their first four games of these playoffs, Minnesota three of their last four losses versus the spread have come as favorites. Furthermore, Finch’s charges are 1-4 versus the spread in their last five postseason outings as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, which is the case tonight. Historically, the Timberwolves have only ever advanced to the Western Conference Finals once in franchise history (2004), where they also dropped the opener at home. This is a team that hasn’t enjoyed postseason success very much, which is tied to their struggles in Game Ones; Minnesota is 1-10 all-time in series after dropping the first installment, with their lone series victory coming in the 2004 Western Semifinals, which they went on to win in seven games.