8:30 PM EST, ABC – Line; Celtics -7.5, Over/Under: 222.5
The Eastern Conference Finals is halfway to deciding a victor, as the top-seeded Boston Celtics look to take a commanding 3-0 lead as the scene shifts to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers are desperate to get back into this series, though may be forced to do so without their brightest star, setting the stage for a crucial Game Three. It seems that the Celtics (64-18, 1st in Eastern Conference) had been reading all of the discourse in the media in regard to their struggles in Game Twos this postseason, which is where each of their lone defeats took place. After suffering perplexing losses to the shorthanded Heat and Cavaliers in the previous two rounds of the playoffs, Boston appeared to be on upset alert in Thursday night’s sequel at TD Garden, particularly after barely surviving Indiana’s furious assault in the opener. Hell, if not for a host of turnovers, including a terrible inbound sequence in the final moments of regulation, (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla’s troops could have very well dropped the Game One altogether. However, (All-Star Guard) Jaylen Brown, whose dagger from the corner sent the contest into overtime, stated after the victory that he and his teammates simply had to adjust to the speed of their opponent. Well, they did that and more in Game Two’s convincing 126-110 win, which saw the hosts buck their recent trends and flex before a raucous home crowd at TD Garden. The shamrocks shot 53.4% from the field, including 15-of-37 from beyond the arc (40.5%), and bullying the visitors in the paint (54-34). Three different Celtics scored over twenty points, though the undisputed star of the show was Brown (pictured below), who erupted for FORTY points on 14-of-27 shooting from the floor (51.9%), including 4-of-10 from downtown (40.0%), 8-of-11 from the charity stripe (72.7%), five rebounds, four assists, and a steal. How significant was this performance for the 27-year-old, you ask? He became the seventh player in franchise history to log multiple 40-point playoff games, while his point total was the third highest of any Celtic in the Conference Finals or Finals, which is really saying something when you consider that club’s considerable past. Simply put, this has been nothing short of a star turn for Brown, who was recently snubbed of a spot of the Association’s recently announced All-NBA teams, taking out his displeasure throughout these playoffs, where he has averaged 24.8 points on 54.4% shooting, 36.5% from three, 6.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists.
From a betting perspective, the public continues to shift to the Celtics, who after winning the first two games of this series have garnered roughly 44% of all bets wagered upon tonight’s Game Three. Boston is 7-5 against the spread in these playoffs, pushing their overall ledger to 48-42-4 on that front, equating to a net profit of 1.64 units. With the spread getting smaller with each passing game of this series, it is worth noting that Mazzulla’s troops are 5-1-1 versus the spread in their last seven outings as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, which is once again the case tonight. With that being said, they are 1-4 against the spread in their past five trips to Indianapolis. However, the shamrocks have yet to meet defeat away from TD Garden in this postseason, owning a 4-0 record in which they’ve outscored the opposition by an average margin of 13.5 points, with their defense proving to be the decisive factor in yielding 91.7 points on 42.2% shooting. On the injury front, it appears that we’re getting closer to the return of (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis, with the Latvian International having missed the last eight games with a strained right calf muscle. During the regular season, Porzingis averaged 20.1 points on 51.6% shooting, including 37.5% from three, with 7.2 rebounds, 20 assists, and 1.9 blocks in his first season in Beantown. Historically, the Celtics have only ever lost a best-of-seven series ONCE (45-1) after taking a 2-0 lead, with the lone outlier being the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals against LeBron James and the Cavaliers.
Meanwhile, this all must feel familiar for the Pacers (47-35, 6th in Eastern Conference), who find themselves returning to Gainbridge Fieldhouse trailing 0-2 for the second time in as many series. Of course, they managed to wrestle control from the Knicks in the previous round of these playoffs, though it should be noted that as impressive as Indiana’s comeback in the middle to latter stages of that series was, they undoubtedly benefitted from their opponent’s ever-shrinking rotation, with a different player beset by injuries each game. Ironically, it is they who have been hit by the dreaded injury bug, as (All-Star Point Guard) Tyrese Haliburton was forced to depart Thursday night’s 110-126 affair midway through the third quarter with an ailing leg. Of course, this twist of events should be sounding alarms in Indianapolis. Haliburton (pictured below) missed ten out of eleven games in the middle of the campaign due to a strained hamstring, which continued to affect him well after he returned to the hardwood. Needless to say, the 24-year-old is utterly indispensable to (Head Coach) Rick Carlisle’s machinations, as Indy is 48-34 when he’s in the lineup thus far in comparison to 7-6 when he’s been out of the lineup altogether. Furthermore, this is a team that plays FAST, averaging the second-most possessions per 48 minutes in the NBA (101.7) en route to ranking first in points (123.3), field goal percentage (50.7%), and assists (30.8). As you can imagine, their Point Guard is a BIG part of all that, with Haliburton leading the league in assists (10.9). With that being said, these last two numbers will prove how integral he is to their chances of upsetting the Celtics in this series; the Pacers were +1 with the floor general on the court in Game Two opposed to -17 when he wasn’t. Despite shooting 52.4% overall, the attack was lacking in many areas, which can be attributed to his absence; Indiana was held to twenty-three assists, where bested from downtown (-12), and blown away in the paint (-20), where Boston’s physicality proved to be a real problem. Haliburton had ten points and eight assists before heading to the locker room, leaving (veteran Forward) Pascal Siakam (28 points on 13-of-17 shooting) and (emerging Guard) Andrew Nembhard (16 points on 6-of-12 shooting) to pick up the slack.
From a betting perspective, the public are losing faith in the Pacers, with 50% of all the money that has been wagered upon tonight’s sequel favoring the hosts. Unlike their opponent in this series, Indiana’s spread success is only three games off their straight-up mark, owning a 52-43-2 record in that regard, parlaying to a net profit of 4.27 units. After stringing together three consecutive covers for the first time since January 5th, Carlisle’s charges failed to make it four in a row, even with getting nearly nine points from the oddsmakers. Perhaps a return to Indianapolis will do the trick for a team that is 7-3 against the spread in their last ten home games, including an unbeaten straight-up record in these playoffs. Thus far, they have beaten their opponents by an average margin of 14.6 points thanks in large part to an overwhelming attack that erupted for 119.1 points on 50.8% shooting overall and 31.0 assists. Furthermore, they have drilled 83-of-221 three-pointers at home (37.5%), leading to an overall margin of +60 points. On the injury front, we covered the health of Haliburton earlier, with his availability currently listed as questionable due to what is being described simply as leg soreness after he left the court the third period. Historically, the Pacers have only ever rallied back from an 0-2 deficit in a best-of-seven series ONCE (1-8), though they won’t have to look too far back given that they managed to do so in the previous series against the Knicks; Indiana won the next three outings at Gainbridge Fieldhouse before utterly ANNIHILATING New York in a shocking 130-109 affair at Madison Square Garden, where they shot a ridiculous 67.1% from the field, establishing a playoff record for Game Sevens.
Projected Outcome: Celtics 126, Pacers 120
