8:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Mavericks -3, Over/Under: 208
With two games in the books for this Western Conference Final, the margin has been razor-thin thus far, as the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks look to press their advantage against the stunned third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, with the scene shifting to American Airlines Center in North Texas. You must forgive the Timberwolves (56-26, 3rd in Western Conference), who have run the gauntlet of the emotional spectrum in these playoffs. After sweeping aside the Suns with remarkable ease in the first round, they raced out to a 2-0 lead over the (reigning champion) Nuggets, before dropping three consecutive contests to put them on the precipice of elimination. However, Minnesota retaliated with wins in Game Six and Seven, rallying back from a 20-point second-half deficit in the latter, the largest such comeback ever in a seventh affair. As such, they were riding high into Western Final, though have nonetheless dropped each of the first two games at of this series by the narrowest of margins. Despite owning leads of fifteen and eighteen points, the hosts lost each by a single possession, leaving (Head Coach) Chris Finch & Co searching for answers. So, what have we learned from this pair of affairs, you ask? Well, the hosts have been maddeningly inconsistent on the offensive end of the court, shooting just 42.0% from the field despite netting 30-of-80 three-pointers (37.5%), which is a clear sign that they have been settling for waaaaaay too many treys. The Wolves attempted a season high FORTY-NINE of them in the opener (netting a franchise postseason record eighteen in the process), though were outscored by TWENTY-FOUR points in the paint. In Friday night’s 108-109 defeat, they toned it down from deep (12-of-31) but were still hammered in the paint (42-54). It also hasn’t helped that their stars haven’t played to that level, with (All-NBA Guard) Anthony Edwards, (4-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert, and (former All-Star) Karl-Anthony Towns all struggling to make their mark. Edwards (pictured below with Gobert and Towns) has been a supernova in these playoffs, but in this series has been relegated to 20.0 points on a miserable 33.3% shooting overall, while Towns has been even worse with 15.5 points on 27.8% shooting, including a dismal 3-of-14 from three (21.4%). As for Gobert, the towering Frenchman has certainly had his ups and downs throughout this playoff career, but he been getting outplayed by Dallas’ rangy, athletic bigs, while serving as the victim of Luka Doncic’s game-winner from the top of the arc (much more on him in a bit). Granted, this has been a MUCH better team on the road in these playoffs, but it leaves us to wonder how much psychological damage has been suffered in these two losses, which were so close to having a different outcome.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves may be down 0-2 in this series, but they continue to own the favor of the public, with roughly 84% of all bets wagered upon tonight’s trip to North Texas siding with the visitors. Minnesota has been simply average versus the spread (48-46-1), leading to a net loss of 2.36 units, but they have been near perfect away from home in this postseason. That’s probably why the public’s confidence in Edwards & Co hasn’t wavered, as this is a unit that is both 5-1 straight-up and against the spread when on the road over the last five weeks. Furthermore, these Wolves are 7-3 against the spread in their past ten games away from Target Center, while matching that record in their last ten outings as an underdog. With that being said, Finch’s troops are just 4-6 against the spread in their past ten ventures to American Airlines Center, splitting their two affairs in Dallas during the regular season. However, let’s get back to their success on the road, shall we? In six away games in these playoffs, the Timberwolves have outscored the opposition by a margin of 8.1 points on 49.6% shooting and 36.8% from beyond the arc, where they have owned a 30-point advantage. Furthermore, their defense has been utterly hellacious in these contests, shipping fewer than 100 points three times, which is really saying something when you consider that they did so against the Suns and Nuggets, who possess no shortage of firepower. Historically, this is a franchise that hasn’t enjoyed much postseason success with just a dozen playoff appearances since debuting in the 1989-1990 campaign, advancing past the first round on only TWO occasions. For those wondering, they have NEVER come back to win a series in which they lost the first two games (0-6).
Meanwhile, is there a better clutch team in the Association at the moment than the Mavericks (50-32, 5th in Western Conference), who for the third consecutive game have managed to win by the narrowest of margins? Dallas managed to close out their previous series with the top-seeded Thunder in a fairly controversial Game Six, in which the hosts escaped with a 117-116 clinching victory thanks to late free-throws following a questionable foul on a three-pointer. Then, (Head Coach) Jason Kidd’s troops kicked off this second Western Conference Final in three years with a 108-105 triumph in Minneapolis, in which the visitors went on a 13-0 run in the fourth quarter thanks in large part to the heroics of (reigning scoring champion) Luka Doncic. Two days later, he and his teammates would rally back from an 18-point deficit, as the Serbian International drilled a ridiculous dagger over the outstretched arm of the aforementioned Gobert, to take a 109-108 ad with three seconds left. Indeed, Doncic (pictured below) has been nothing short of sublime during a postseason run in which he has been hampered by a bulky knee, averaging 32.5 points on 44.9% shooting, including 8-of-21 from beyond the arc (38.1%), 8.0 rebounds, 10.5 assists, and 1.5 steals. Coupled with (All-Star Guard) Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks have a pair of halfcourt maestros who can singlehandedly destroy a defense in isolation. Simply put, Kidd would love to push the tempo, but in the playoffs where everything tends to slow down, having these two at his disposal has been akin to a cheat code. Irving (pictured below next to Doncic) got things started in Game One with twenty-four of his thirty points coming in the first half, before Doncic finished the Wolves off with fifteen of his thirty-three points logged in the fourth period. Game Two transpired in reverse, as it was Doncic who authored sixteen points before intermission, while Irving erupted for thirteen of his twenty points int he final stanza. When Dallas absolutely needs a bucket, these guys can get it, which is so valuable against a defense that has been the best in the NBA this season. We’d also like to shine some light on the Mavs’ tandem of bigs, Dereck Lively Jr and Daniel Gafford, who have played a sizeable role in negating the impact of Gobert and Towns. Lively, a rookie out of Duke, has lived up to his surname in this postseason with 8.7 points on 63.9% shooting, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks in 22.4 minutes per game. As for Gafford, he was acquired at the trade deadline and has been just as effective, logging 9.2 points on 58.0% shooting, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks in 20.8 minutes in these playoffs. Through two games of this series, the tandem has combined for 24.5 points on an efficient 79.3% shooting, 17.0 rebounds, and 4.0 blocks. In Game Two alone, Gafford totaled sixteen points, five boards, and five rejections, while Lively added fourteen points and nine boards off the bench.
From a betting perspective, the Mavericks’ clutch nous has propelled them to a 2-0 lead in this series, but it has yet to win over the public, with a mere 11% of all the money wagered on tonight’s threquel riding on the hosts. We’ve said it again and again, but Dallas has been by far and away the hottest team in the Association from a spread POV since February 5th, owning a 33-14 record in that regard, which is a major reason why they’ve earned a net profit of 12.82 units thus far. Kidd’s troops are 9-5 against the spread in these playoffs, including 6-1 when receiving points from the oddsmakers. However, as this series shifts to North Texas, Doncic & Co find themselves in a different position; these Mavs are a middling 3-3 versus the spread at American Airlines Center. In those home affairs, they have outscored the opposition by a narrow 3.3 points per game on 46.1% shooting, including 34.4% from downtown, along with 23.5 assists opposed to committing 12.6 turnovers. On the injury front, (veteran Center) Maxi Kleber looks like he will miss the rest of this series due to a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder that has sidelined him since the end of their series with the Clippers. Historically, the Mavericks are 4-2 all-time in best-of-seven series after racing out to a 2-0 lead, though it should be noted that one of those defeats was arguably the most painful in franchise history; Dallas blew a 2-game lead over Miami in the 2006 NBA Finals, losing the following four games.
Projected Outcome: Timberwolves 109, Mavericks 104
