8:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Celtics -7.5, Over/Under: 222.5
It appears that this Eastern Conference Final is set to end as quickly as it began, as the top-seeded Boston Celtics have designs on closing out the series tonight in Indianapolis, while the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers are simply trying to stave off elimination as long as they can in this Game Four from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. When this postseason comes to its conclusion, it will be interesting to see how the Celtics (64-18, 1st in Eastern Conference) are remembered. Yes, they finished with their best record since 2008, seven games better than any other team in the Association this season. In fact, Boston was historically good in 2023-2024, producing the fourth-largest net point differential ever (+11.4), while leading by as many as twenty points in nearly HALF (47) of their games played between the regular season and playoffs. However, their road to a potential championship has been anything but tough, as the east playoff field was thrown into chaos due to injuries from the beginning. First, a rematch with the (reigning conference champion) Heat was thrown for a curve with the absence of Jimmy Butler due to injury, while the following series, a date with the Cavaliers in the Eastern Semifinals, was also marred by maladies, including that of Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen. (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla’s troops handled their business against each opponent in five games, though it certainly appeared as if they were simply going through the motions. Consequently, they find themselves on the cups of eliminating a sixth seed that while formidable, has certainly benefitted from plot armor, and is now without their most influential player for what will likely be the rest of this series. Sure, we understand that the Celtics’ improbable comeback in Game One required a lot of good fortune, while Saturday night’s 114-111 rally needed similar heroics to see it to fruition. Boston remained unbeaten on the road in this postseason despite trailing by as many as EIGHTEEN points, including nine entering the fourth quarter; in the final stanza, the visitors outscored the hosts 33-21, shooting 11-of-19 from the field (57.9%), 4-of-9 from beyond the arc (44.4%), and 7-of-8 from the charity stripe (87.5%), all the while holding Indiana to a mere 8-of-21 shooting (38.1%) and just four assists in comparison to forcing a pair of turnovers. This stretch was characterized by the sublime play of (All-NBA Forward) Jayson Tatum and (All-Defensive 2nd Team) Jrue Holiday, who impacted the game in very different ways. Despite scoring seven of his game-high thirty-six points in the quarter on 1-of-4 shooting (25.0%), Tatum (pictured below) controlled the contest with his passing (four assists) and free-throw shooting (4-of-5), while Holiday erupted for nine points on a perfect 3-of-3 shooting, though his relentless defensive pressure at the point attack resulted in a clutch steal on the Pacers’ final attempt to draw level. In the end, the Celtics were +33 from downtown, +6 from the free-throw line, and +7 in points off turnovers. (All-Star Guard) Jaylen Brown continued his strong form with twenty-four points on 10-of-18 shooting (55.6%), while (veteran Forward) Al Horford rained down SEVEN treys, a career-high for the 37-year-old, who finished with twenty-three points of his own. For Tatum, his performance marked the fifth time that he had posted 35+ points and 10+ rebounds in the playoffs, which is second-most in Celtics history (trailing Larry Bird), bringing his total of 30-point postseason affairs (28) to third in franchise history. Furthermore, that 18-point comeback was good for the fifth largest in the team’s long, proud history, which is notable for the fact that each of the four rallies ahead of it saw that iteration of shamrocks hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy. And to answer that previous question as to how this team will ultimately be remembered? If they do happen to win championship #18, then who they beat to hang that banner will be lost to the annals of his history.
From a betting perspective, the public is understandably wary of siding with the Celtics despite their commanding lead in this series, with roughly 20% of all bets wagered upon tonight’s potential finale riding on the visitors. Of course, that is because given their statistical dominance, there has been a sizeable disparity between their straight-up success and that against the spread; Boston is 48-43-4 in that latter regard, a difference of TWENTY-SEVEN games, equating to a narrow net profit of 0.64 units. In these playoffs, Mazzulla’s charges are 7-6 versus the spread, though have covered only one of their last five outings. Furthermore, this is a team that is a dismal 1-5 in their last six contests following a straight-up victory. On the injury front, the long-awaited return of (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis is expected to take place tonight, though given that this series may conclude, there is a chance that Mazzulla may withhold the Latvian International in lieu of a return in the Finals. In his first campaign with the franchise after arriving via trade in a three-team deal including the Wizards, Porzingis averaged 20.1 points on 51.6% shooting, including 37.5% from three, with 7.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.9 blocks. Historically, you probably know by now that no team has ever failed to win a series after racing out to a 3-0 lead. In Boston’s case, they have done so twenty-one times and have completed TWELVE sweeps throughout their franchise’s storied past, while nine more series lasted to a fifth game. The last time that the Celtics swept an opponent was in the first round of the 2022 playoffs at the expense of the Nets,
Meanwhile, when stated earlier that it felt as if the Pacers (45-37, 6th in Eastern Conference) had been benefitting from plot armor for weeks, but that is no longer the case as they have been dealt a cruel blow at the worst possible time in the form of (All-Star Point Guard) Tyrese Haliburton’s absence due to a sore hamstring. Of course, Haliburton (pictured below) missed ten of eleven games in the middle of the campaign due to a strained right hamstring that went on to affect him for quite a while, with the 24-year-old finally looking like his old self at the beginning of the playoffs. His talents played no small part in their conquest of the third-seeded Bucks followed by a seven-game epic against the Knicks, which concluded with an eye-opening performance at Madison Square Garden in which Indiana shot an NBA record 67.1% en route to a 130-1109 triumph. Given their underdog status, maybe it is easier to absorb the fact that they eliminated the likes of Milwaukee and New York, who were each without MAJOR weapons in those matchups, though now it is Indy who is without their most influential player. Leading the highest-scoring team in the NBA (123.3), Haliburton led the league in assists (10.9) or a unit that paced the Association in that same category (30.8), while ranking first in field goal percentage (50.7%), second in pace (101.7), and fourth in fastbreak points (16.6). Needless to say, the Point Guard has been the head of the proverbial snake for (Head Coach) Rick Carlisle’s troops, though we all know the old adage of “cutting the head off a snake”… Despite shooting over 50.0% in all three games of this series and dishing out a healthy 31.0 assists, there are three major areas in which the Pacers are losing this matchup. First, they have been getting killed from the perimeter, where the Celtics have outscored them by FIFTY-THREE points, which equates to an average margin of 17.0 points per game. In Saturday’s collapse, the hosts netted just 5-of-22 attempts (22.7%), which is a direct reflection of playing a strong defense without the league’s most prolific facilitator. Second, they haven’t had an answer for Boston’s physicality which has been reflected in their disparity in free-throws from the charity stripe in the series standing at -27 for Carlisle & Co. Lastly, and this is the biggest factor in how this series has transpired, has been their inability to take care of the basketball and how the shamrocks have made them pay for it. Despite playing so fast, this was a team that committed the ninth-fewest turnovers in the NBA during the regular season (12.9), with a percentage of just 11.3% (6th Overall). In this series, those figures have inflated to 16.0 and 14.1%, committing seventeen more turnovers than the opposition, with many of them coming in crucial moments of Games One and Three; Haliburton fumbled the ball out of bounds late in the opener, before a dreadful inbound sequence set up the trey that would send that game to overtime, while (young Guard) Andrew Nembhard was stripped of the rock altogether on their final possession of Saturday’s defeat. Furthermore, those errors have parlayed into FORTY-FOUR points for the Celtics, equating to a differential of -18, which is simply untenable in the playoffs.
From a betting perspective, the public is still backing the Pacers despite their season potentially coming to an end tonight, with approximately 79% of all the money wagered on this Game Four riding on the hosts. Indiana has been a solid play versus the spread this season, owning a 53-43-2 ledger in that regard, parlaying to a net profit of 5.18 units. In these playoffs, they are 9-7 against the spread, including 5-2 in their last seven contests. Granted, being sizable underdogs has aided that narrative, as Carlisle’s charges are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven outings as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, while riding a 5-1-1 run of covers in their last seven games as a home dog, with both trends being the case tonight. On the injury front, the aforementioned Haliburton was a late scratch for Saturday night’s return to Indianapolis and is reportedly at risk of returning at all in this series. The team is 7-7 this season without him leading the attack, as they have been outscored by fifty-three points along the way. Historically, we stated earlier that no team has ever successfully rallied back to win a series that they trailed 0-3, though there have only ever been THREE sides to even force a decisive seventh game. As for the Pacers, they have dropped the first three games of a series on six previous occasions, with all but one resulting in a sweep. The lone outlier was the first round of the 2011 playoffs where the Bulls eliminated them in five games.
Projected Outcome: Celtics 120, Pacers 107
