8:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Mavericks -2.5, Over/Under: 210.5
It seems like we could see some history tonight, folks, as each of the NBA’s Conference Finals could end in sweeps for the first time since 1957, as the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves look to avoid that fate in this Game Four against the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks from American Airlines Center in North Texas. These playoffs started so strongly for the Timberwolves (56-26, 3rd in Western Conference), who quickly became the darlings of the Association after sweeping aside the Suns in the first round and then taking the first two chapters of their epic confrontation with the (reigning champion) Nuggets, whom they eventually unseated in seven games. Indeed, many were quick to crown Minnesota as the west’s representative in the looming Finals, though it is safe to say that things have NOT gone according to plan. In a span of just five days, these Wolves are down 0-3, despite being outscored by a mere thirteen games over those three contests. So, how has it come to this for (Head Coach) Chris Finch’s charges, you ask? Well, they have played well enough to be leading this series, evidenced by their 15-point and 18-point leads in Games One and Two, but their troubling knack for collapsing the fourth quarter has led them to this fate. In the final stanza, the Timberwolves have been outscored by twenty-one points on 43.6% shooting, with sixteen assists in comparison to eleven turnovers, while being outrebounded by eleven boards along the way. It certainly hasn’t helped that their stars have struggled in these affairs, particularly (All-NBA Guard) Anthony Edwards and (sharpshooting big man) Karl-Anthony Towns (pictured together below). Edwards was a SUPERNOVA through the first eight games of these playoffs, averaging 32.1 points on 56.0% shooting, including 44.1% from beyond the arc, 6.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.6 steals, but since then hasn’t come close to living up to the ensuing hype with 21.2 points on just 36.3% shooting. As for Towns, he has been downright disastrous in this series, logging 15.0 points on a dismal 27.8% shooting and 3-of-22 from downtown (13.6%), including a miserable 0-of-8 in Sunday night’s 107-116 loss at Dallas. To put that into proper context, the self-professed “Greatest Shooting Big Man in NBA History” suffered the first game of his career with at least eight attempts from three and zero makes. The visitors trailed by as many as twelve points early but managed to rally back to take a 3-point lead on the strength of their defense and brief a reawakening from Edwards and Towns, who combined for nineteen points on 8-of-14 shooting (.57.1%). However, The Timberwolves would go nearly FIVE whole minutes down the stretch without a single field goal as their opponent appeared to get every single bucket that they needed. In the end, Minnesota shot 50.6% from the field and owned a 5-40 advantage in the paint but were outscored by fifteen points from the perimeter and another fourteen points from the charity stripe. And there is the rub, folks: despite being the top defensive team in the NBA, these Wolves have long had a penchant for fouling the opposition, committing 18.8 per game (18th Overall) leading to a free-throw/field goal attempt ratio of .197 (21st Overall). The visiting side were charged with twenty-four fouls in Game Three, leading to THIRTY-ONE free-throws for the hosts, fourteen more than Edwards & Co.
From a betting perspective, the public remains bullish on the Timberwolves even though they are staring down the barrel of a sweep, with roughly 70% of all bets wagered upon tonight’s potential finale riding on the visitors once again. This is a team that has been mediocre as far as the spread is concerned this season, owning a 48-47-1 record in that regard, equating to a net loss of 3.36 units. After beginning these playoffs with SIX consecutive covers, Minnesota has hit the proverbial wall, posting a 2-6 mark versus the spread over their last eight contests, which includes three consecutive spread defeats in this series. As we’ve covered before, this is par for the course when it comes to Finch’s troops, who have had a habit of authoring some fairly murky runs over the past few months; since February 23rd, the Wolves suffered a 2-8 stretch followed by a 3-8 run against the spread. For those with concerns that their campaign will be coming to an end tonight, we’d like to remind you that they faced elimination twice already in these playoffs, besting the Nuggets in back-to-back affairs, including a historic Game Seven in which they overcame a 20-point deficit, the largest ever in such a series finale. Minnesota’s defense was DOMINANT in those two games, relegating the defending champs to an average of 80.0 points on 35.5% shooting and 21.7% from three, while Edwards fought through 34.1% shooting to log 21.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2.5 steals. Historically, this is a franchise that hasn’t enjoyed much postseason success, with just a dozen appearances dating back to their debut in 1989-1990, including two sweeps, with each occurring in the first round. We all know that no team has ever came back to win a series after trailing 0-3 (0-154), but the Wolves have only ever managed to force a fifth game once, which came in last year’s first-round exit against the Nuggets.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks (52-30, 5th in Western Conference) are one game away from advancing to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2011, and they have done so largely on the strength of their dynamic Backcourt, (reigning scoring champion) Luka Doncic and (8-time All-Star) Kyrie Irving. Sure, the additions that (General Manager) Nico Harrison made in the Draft and at the Trade Deadline have balanced (Head Coach) Jason Kidd’s rotation in ways that few could have imagined, but there is no way that Dallas reaches this point without the services of Doncic and Irving (pictured together below). Through three games, they have been nothing short of devastating, carving up the NBA’s toughest defense with relentless precision; Luka and Kyrie have combined for an average of 60.4 points on 49.1% shooting from the field, including 41.7% from beyond the arc, 11.7 rebounds, 13.4 assists, and 3.4 steals. The reason that their assault is working against Minnesota’s staunch defense is because these guys are adept at attacking you in the halfcourt, thriving in isolation, while the rest of the rotation has been happy to sit back and wait for their opportunities to knock down wide open shots. Whereas the Wolves completely disrupted the Suns and Nuggets’ attacks, they’ve actually facilitated the Mavs’ approach, with Doncic and Irving leaning into the one-on-one challenge. After combining to score or assist on EIGHTY-EIGHT of their team’s 108 points in Game One, the two put together another stellar performance in Sunday night’s 116-107 triumph, scoring thirty-three points apiece in yet another dazzling display. How good were these two, you ask? The dynamic duo outscored their opponent 21-20 in the fourth quarter, fueling a late 14-3 run in which the hosts overturned the deficit and took a 3-0 lead in the series. For Doncic, he became the first player in franchise history to produce 400 points and 100 assists in a single postseason, which is remarkable given that he has been doing so with a bulky knee. As for Irving, this has been quite the renaissance for a supremely talented player that has become a pariah after missing so much time due to suspension and injuries. Game Three was a disjointed affair due to a plethora of fouls, but that didn’t stop the Mavericks from continuing to torment their opponent, shooting an efficient 55.9% from the field, including 14-of-28 from downtown (50.0%), along with 26-of-31 from the charity stripe (83.9%), while also holding advantages in points off turnovers (+5) and fastbreak points (+7). Apart from Doncic and Irving, (Forwards) P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. combined for twenty-seven points on 8-of-14 shooting (57.1%) and 5-of-9 from three (55.5%), ten rebounds, and four assists. And then there was (journeyman Center) Daniel Gafford, who was a key addition at the deadline, who may have finished the night with an unassuming five points and three rebounds, but a key block down the stretch coupled with a thundering slam via a lob from Doncic in the waning moments basically ended any chance that the Wolves had of mounting a comeback.
From a betting perspective, the Mavericks may be one step away from the Finals, but the public isn’t backing them to cover tonight’s spread despite doing so in each of the previous three games, as only 26% of all the money wagered upon tonight’s Game Four is siding with the hosts. In regard to the spread, Dallas has been the most profitable team in the Association for months now, owning a 34-14 record since February 5th, including 10-5 in these playoffs. On the season, Kidd’s troops are 58-39 versus the spread, parlaying to a healthy net profit of 13.73 units, which is among the best in the NBA. The Mavs are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten outings overall, though are 1-2 on that front in the three instances in which they have had an opportunity to clinch a series. In injury-related news, (Rookie Center) Dereck Lively II suffered a strained neck early in Sunday’s victory when he took a knee to the nape. The Duke product has been a revelation this season, providing rebounding and defense around the rim, along with underrated playmaking skills and a perpetual lob threat to boot, leaving him questionable to return tonight. In the first two games of this series, Lively totaled twenty points on a perfect 10-of-10 shooting from the field, twenty rebounds (seven of the offensive variety), five assists and a pair of blocks. Historically, this is a franchise that has completed just three sweeps in twenty-five postseason appearances, while taking care of business in five games on two occasions. If they happen to close the series out tonight, then the Mavs will be off to their third NBA Finals in franchise history, where they are 1-1 all-time, hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy back in 2011.
Projected Outcome: Mavericks 114, Timberwolves 102
