8:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Timberwolves -4.5, Over/Under: 209.5
It appears that this Western Conference Final will be lasting a bit longer than expected, as the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves desperately try to prolong this series in an attempt to make history, while the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks look to take care of their business and advance to the NBA Finals, in this Game Five from Target Center. After racing out to a commanding 3-0 lead in this series, the Mavericks (52-30, 5th in Western Conference) finally met defeat in a series that has been MUCH closer than what that ledger would suggest. Thus far, the four games have been decided by a total of EIGHTEEN points, with Dallas’ superb execution at the end of games giving them the advantage. Consider this, folks: the Mavs have trailed by double-digits in the second halves of each of these four contests, only to own the fourth quarters thanks to the halfcourt mastery of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Thus far, the dynamic duo has combined for 56.3 points, 13.0 rebounds, 13.5 assists, and 3.1 steals on shooting splits of 45.5/38.4/75.0, carving up the NBA’s toughest defense with relentless precision. The reason that their assault is working against Minnesota’s staunch defense is because these guys are adept at attacking you in the halfcourt, thriving in isolation, while the rest of the rotation has been happy to sit back and wait for their opportunities to knock down wide open shots. Whereas the Wolves completely disrupted the Suns and Nuggets’ attacks, they’ve actually facilitated the Mavs’ approach, with Doncic and Irving (pictured together below) leaning into the one-on-one challenge. However, after tormenting their opponent in the fourth quarters of this series, Tuesday night’s 105-110 defeat was the first time that they visibly struggled in that regard. For the first time in this Western Final, Dallas did NOT outscore Minnesota in the final frame (27-27), with that tandem combining to score thirteen points on 4-of-12 shooting (33.3%) and 1-of-6 from three (16.7%). Doncic, in particular, scored four of his seven points from the charity stripe, while Irving had been subdued throughout the affair as the Wolves shifted larger, longer defenders on him. Altogether, the hosts shot 42.0% from the field, despite knocking down 14-of-40 from the perimeter (35.0%), though really only managed to keep this one close thanks to THIRTY points off turnovers, which enabled them to erase a 12-point deficit early in the second half. However, the absence of (Rookie Center) Dereck Lively II (more on him in a bit) hampered the frontcourt in ways that few could have imagined, as the Mavs had a helluva time dealing with the visitors’ size and length, losing the battle in the paint (-10) along with the battle on the glass (-2).
From a betting perspective, the public continues to ride with the dogs in this series, as roughly 72% of all (ATS) bets wagered upon tonight’s return to Minneapolis have been placed upon the visitors. Tuesday night’s loss aside, the Mavericks have been arguably the best play in the Association against the spread for months now; Dallas is 34-15 in that regard dating back to February 5th, paving the way for their overall net profit of 12.73 units, which is among the league’s elite. Kidd’s troops are 10-6 straight-up and versus the spread in this postseason, including 3-1 in this series. This is a team that has been adept at bouncing back following a defeat, as the Mavs have yet to drop consecutive games in these playoffs, while covering five straight outings when coming off a straight-up loss. The road has been VERY kind to Doncic & Co of late, with a 7-3 record against the spread away from American Airlines Center, while covering EIGHT of their last ten affairs when receiving points from the oddsmakers. On the injury front, (veteran Center) Maxi Kleber may have finally returned from a shoulder sprain that cost him ten straight games, but the bigger concern is the availability of the aforementioned Lively, who exited Game Three with a sprained neck after suffering a knee to his nape. Despite coming off the bench, the rookie was very impactful, with 10.0 points per game on a perfect 10-of-10 shooting from the field, 10.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.0 block in Games One and Two. According to Kidd, he is listed as questionable to return to action tonight at Target Center. Historically, this series marks only the second time ever that the Mavericks have failed to complete a sweep after racing out to a 3-0 lead, which is notable given that only other instance came in the first round of the 2003 playoffs, where they were taken to seven games by the Blazers, who ultimately fell in the finale.
Meanwhile, as difficult as Tuesday night’s 105-100 victory appeared to be for the Timberwolves (56-26, 3rd in Western Conference), the real work begins now as the task is laid before them: in order to make history, Minnesota needs to win the next three games, two of which would be at home, beginning with tonight’s Game Five. Of course, we all know that history is working against them, as teams trailing 0-3 in a best-of-seven series are 0-155 all-time. Hell, seeing a series go the distance after such a start is something of a rare commodity unto itself, with only FOUR such series lasting seven games. Ironically, the most recent example was Boston’s attempts to right the proverbial ship in last May’s Eastern Conference Finals, though they were promptly put to the sword on their homecourt in a 19-point defeat. So, let’s dive into how these Wolves managed to stop the bleeding, shall we? We’ve said it before in this column, but (Head Coach) Chris Finch’s charges have played well enough to be leading this series 3-1, if not for their persistent struggles when it comes to late-game execution and being on the wrong end of Doncic’s dagger in Game Two. Minnesota led by 15 points in the opener and by as many as 18 in its direct sequel, only to suffer long stretches of ineptitude in the fourth quarters of those contests. In fact, if you include Game Three, this is a team that was -21 points in the final period, with their efficiency on the offensive end take a walk off a cliff with sixteen assists opposed to eleven turnovers. Furthermore, their stars simply haven’t played up to their billing, with (All-NBA Guard) Anthony Edwards and (sharpshooting Center) Karl-Anthony Towns struggling mightily to say the least. Together, Edwards and Towns (pictured together below) shot a miserable 37-of-111 from the field (33.3%) and 10-of-43 from beyond the arc (23.2%) through the first three games. Thankfully, all of that changed (if only for one night) in Game Four. The Timberwolves shot a healthy 52.7% from the field, including 11-of-24 from downtown (45.8%), and outscored the hosts 46-36 in the paint, while also refraining from their self-destructive ways in the fourth quarter. The visitors shot 10-of-19 (52.6%) in the period, 3-of-5 from three (60.0%) and committed just two turnovers in comparison to assisting on seven of their ten field goals, with Towns doing his best to rewrite the narrative of his career. Make no mistake, the former number one overall pick has earned his detractors, particularly in this series, but the self-professed “Greatest Shooting Big Man in NBA History” authored a performance that ran the gamut of who he is as a player. After going 0-of-8 from the perimeter in the previous contest, Towns erupted for twenty-five points, including ten in the fourth quarter, where he netted 3-of-4 treys, along with a pair of beautiful layoff passes leading to scores from (fellow big man) Rudy Gobert, before eventually fouling out with just under a minute left to play. Edwards added twenty-nine points on 11-of-25 shooting (44.0%), ten rebounds, and nine assists, while Gobert chipped in with thirteen points, ten rebounds, and a block.
From a betting perspective, the public are aware that history is against these Timberwolves and as such approximately 34% of all the money wagered (ATS) on tonight’s potential finale in Minneapolis is siding with the hosts. This has been a team that has run hot and cold where the spread is concerned for quite some time, particularly in these playoffs; Minnesota begun this postseason with SIX consecutive covers, only to drop three in a row on two separate occasions over the last two weeks, snapping the latter skid in Game Four. On the season, Finch’s troops have been a mediocre group against the spread, owning a 49-47-2 mark in that regard, equating to a net loss of 2.45 units. Target Center hasn’t been very welcoming to its residents of late, folks, with the Wolves a disappointing 1-4 straight-up and versus the spread in their last five home games. Furthermore, that has gone hand-in-hand with their struggles as a favorite, with identical marks within that same range in such matchups. On the injury front, there have been concerns over the fitness of (veteran Point Guard) Mike Conley, who has been dealing with a sore Achilles throughout this series, even leaving for the locker room for a brief period of time during Game Three. The 36-year-old has oftentimes been a calming influence on what has been a chaotic group in recent years; since a disappointing opener, Conly has averaged a steady 16.0 points on 52.9% shooting and 43.8% from three, 3.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.0 steals, including 14/3/7/4 in Tuesday’s victory. Historically, the Wolves avoided suffering their first sweep in a best-of-seven series in franchise history, though it remains to be seen if they will do any more than they have, for the only other time that they have managed to win a game after falling behind 0-3 was last year’s first-round affair with Denver, who eliminated them in five games.
Projected Outcome: Timberwolves 109, Mavericks 102
