8:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Celtics -6.5, Over/Under: 214.5
And then there were two, as the 2024 NBA Finals get set to tipoff tonight from TD Garden, featuring the top-seeded Boston Celtics playing host to the surging, fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks in what should be a thoroughly entertaining opener. While they are certainly one of the lower seeds to have advanced to the Finals in NBA history (more on that in a bit), these Mavericks (52-30, 5th in Western Conference) have been arguably the best team in the league for the bulk of four months now. Back on February 3rd, this was a team that was sitting at eighth (26-23) in the competitive west, though a transformative Trade Deadline helped turn this group into a juggernaut. Credit to (General Manager) Nico Harrison and (Head Coach) Jason Kidd for completely reinventing the rotation around their two stars, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving (pictured together below) with just a few shrewd moves. First, Dallas blatantly tanked down the stretch last season in order to keep their first-round pick, which turned into (Rookie Center) Dereck Lively II, while taking the poor fit of (free agent acquisition) Grant Williams and turning him into (versatile Forward) P.J. Washington in a deal with the Hornets, before also adding the services of (veteran Center) Daniel Gafford in a separate transaction with the Wizards. All three players have been a revelation for the Mavs, particularly during this playoff run, with Washington’s 3 & D prowess turning up over and over again, while Gafford and Lively have evolved into a hyper athletic, two-headed monster at Center, providing sorely needed rebounding and rim-protection, along with a dangerous lob treat. Oh, but we can’t forget Doncic and Irving, who have been nothing short of sublime in these playoffs; the dynamic duo has combined for 51.6 points on 45.8% shooting and 37.3% from beyond the arc, along with 13.5 rebounds, 14.0 assists, and 2.8 steals in the postseason. Doncic, who led the NBA in scoring (33.9), has relentlessly dissected three of the league’s best defenses in succession, while Irving has done a tremendous job of changing the toxic narrative that had plagued the previous few years of his stellar career. Of course, his return to Boston for this series is already dominating the headlines; the 31-year-old spent two seasons with the Celtics before departing in free agency under unflattering circumstances to help build the next super team in Brooklyn, which is where things really got weird. From 2019 to 2023, the former NBA Champion suited up no more than fifty-four times in a season for the Nets, due to injuries, a league-mandated suspension due to his refusal to comply with COVID-19 guidelines, and similar restrictions in the state of New York which relegated him to only road games for a period of time. It’s safe to say that Irving was a pariah around the Association, particularly given his salary, but Dallas took a chance on him at the 2023 deadline, with that gamble paying MAJOR dividends. Possibly the greatest complimentary star in the game today, Irving has blended seamlessly with his Slovenian running mate in ways few could have imagined, which will be key as they battle Boston. Kidd’s troops dropped both encounters with the Celtics during the regular season by a combined THIRTY-FIVE points, the latter of which was the only one to take place after the trade deadline; a 110-138 debacle at TD Garden, Doncic’s triple-double (37/12/11) wasn’t enough as the visitors were outscored by THIRTY-SIX points from downtown, which proved to be the decisive factor. Irving struggled on that day with nineteen points on 9-of-23 shooting (39.1%) and 1-of-7 from three (14.3%). Granted, for a guy who has flipped off the fans in Beantown and visibly stomped on their team logo at midcourt, we doubt that he’ll be suffering from any anxiety heading into these first two games at the Garden…
From a betting perspective, the public is all over the Mavs given that they are receiving points from the oddsmakers, with roughly 73% of all bets wagered upon tonight’s spread siding with the visitors. Then again, why wouldn’t they? Dallas has been the most rewarding bet in the Association since February 5th, posting a stellar 35-15 record both straight-up and against the spread. Furthermore, this is a group that is 12-3 versus the spread as an underdog during that particular stretch, which includes FIVE straight outright victories when getting points. Doncic & Co are 5-0 in their past five outings as a dog of 5.0-10.5 points, which is the case tonight. The road has been a comfortable place to be for Kidd’s troops, who have covered seven of their last ten trips away from North Texas, though they are just 4-5-1 in that regard when playing in Beantown. The Mavs haven’t beaten the Celtics in four consecutive meetings, with their last triumph coming back on March 13th of 2022. On the injury front, Doncic has been dealing with a bulky knee and ankle throughout this postseason, while the aforementioned Lively returned to the hardwood to see off the Wolves in the previous round after missing most of Games Three and Four due to a sprained neck. Both players are expected to see plenty of action in tonight’s opener. Historically, the Mavericks are making their third ever appearance in the NBA Finals, with the first coming in 2006 and the second coming five years later in 2011. Ironically, both affairs came against the Heat, who turned the tables with four consecutive victories after falling behind 0-2 in the first matchup, only for Dallas to return the favor in the latter conflict, a 4-2 conquest after losing two of their first three games. It should be noted that these Mavs are just the TENTH team seeded fourth or lower to ever reach the Finals, with the 1968-69 Celtics (4th) and the 1994-95 Rockets (6th) being the only champions to meet such criteria.
Meanwhile, their opponent may be the hottest team in the Association, but the Celtics (64-18, 1st in Eastern Conference) have easily been the best in the league over the totality of the season, finishing with seven more wins than the next closest team and FOURTEEN games clear of their closest competition in the East. So, how good has Boston been, you ask? (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla’s troops ranked second in points scored (120.6) and fifth allowed (109.2), equating to the largest differential in NBA history, while their net rating (+11.6) clocked in at the fourth-best ever. Furthermore, this is a team that ranked first in a slew of other categories, including three-pointers made (1,351) and attempted (3,482) defensive rebounds (35.6), blocks (6.6), and turnovers committed (11.9), along with defensive free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (.145). Also, they have lost back-to-back games on just two occasions in ninety-six games thus far, while holding a lead of at 20+ points in nearly HALF of their games played between the regular season and playoffs. Like the Mavs, this is a team that was transformed by the additions of reinforcements, though theirs came during the offseason; (Perennial All-Defense) Jrue Holiday and (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis were added in separate trades to bolster what has become the most talented starting lineup in the league, creating a wealth of mismatches on both ends of the floor for Mazzulla to exploit. (Veteran Swingmen) Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (pictured together below) continued to be the protagonists of this era in Beantown, combining 46.9 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 36.8% from beyond the arc, along with 13.6 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 2.2 steals during the regular season, and then 51.0 points, 16.5 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 2.2 steals in the playoffs thus far. During their seven years together, they have propelled the Celtics to FIVE Eastern Conference Finals and a pair of NBA Finals, though have yet to bring home that elusive eighteenth O’Brian Trophy, which has placed the pressure squarely on the shoulders of these two young stars. It has certainly helped that the playoffs have broken as about as well for them as one could have hoped. Simply put, the eastern half of the bracket was thrown into persistent chaos due to injuries to a host of stars, paving the way for Boston reach this Final; each of their three opponents to this point suffered serious from a personnel perspective, with Jimmy Butler sidelined for the entirety of their first-round conquest of Miami, while both Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen missed time in the following series versus Cleveland, before the loss of Tyrese Haliburton completely derailed their eventual sweep of Indiana. Including their opponent in this Final, the fifth-seeded Mavs, Mazzulla & Co would have faced an eighth, a fourth, and a sixth seed in these playoffs, creating this narrative of if not now, then when in the northeast. Given their two encounters with Dallas from the regular season, they should be favored to win this series; the first meeting, a 119-110 affair at American Airlines Center back on January 22nd, saw Tatum and Brown erupt for a combined SEVENTY-THREE points on 24-of-43 shooting (55.8%), while the latter, that aforementioned 28-point drubbing at TD Garden, featured seven different players in double-figures, including three with 20+ points, led by Tatum (32 points) who served as the spearhead for a team that drilled 21-of-43 treys (48.8%) for a commanding 36-point advantage.
From a betting perspective, given their perceived struggles at home and their knack for winning without covering the spread in the previous series, only about 20% of all the money wagered on tonight’s spread is riding with the Celtics. Of course, there is quite a gulf between their success straight-up and against the spread, with a whopping FOURTEEN games separating the two ledgers, equating to a net profit of 3.09 units. Boston has been a heavy favorite quite a bit this season, though this 6.5-point spread seems a bit milder than what we’ve seen in the playoffs thus far (which is an indictment on their previous competition. Mazzulla’s troops are 11-4 versus the spread when favored by 6.5 or less points this season. TD Garden hasn’t been the most rewarding of venues in this regard, with its denizens owning a 5-4-1 mark in their last ten contests at home, which is identical to their last ten meetings with Dallas that have taken place in the Northeast. Furthermore, the Celtics are 1-6 against the spread in their past ten games following a straight-up win. On the injury front, we should finally see the long-awaited return of the aforementioned Porzingis, who has been sidelined since the latter stages of their first -round conquest of Miami with a sore calf muscle. The Latvian big man is being billed as the x-factor in this series, with his ability to stretch the floor likely to force whichever of the Mavs’ true bigs out to the perimeter to guard him, which would in turn open up driving lanes to the rim for Tatum, Brown, & Co. Historically, the Celtics are making their TWENTY-THIRD ever appearance in the NBA Finals, second-most of any franchise and by far and away the most of any club coming out of the East. Boston is a ridiculous 17-5 all-time in the Finals, though it should be noted that the bulk of that success came prior to the 90s; they went 16-3 at this stage of the postseason over a span of three decades between 1957 and 1987. Furthermore, the shamrocks have appeared in three Finals since that point, claiming their (joint record) seventeenth O’Brien Trophy back in 2008, with their most recent venture coming two years ago, a 2-4 defeat at the hands of the Warriors despite winning two of the first three games.