8:00 PM EST, ABC – Line: Celtics -7, Over/Under: 214.5
After a very one-sided opener, tonight’s Game Two of the NBA Finals should go a long way towards revealing just how long this series will last, as the surging Boston Celtics look to take a commanding 2-0 lead over the Dallas Mavericks, who are simply looking to draw level after getting run out of TD Garden three days ago. Well, after a week of buildup, Thursday night’s opening salvo really couldn’t have transpired more poorly for the Mavericks (52-30, 5th in Western Conference), who fell victim to an emerald onslaught. Things spiraled out of control early on for Dallas, who found themselves on the wrong side of a 37-20 first quarter in which the hosts torched them with a 23-5 run to close out the period. The visitors would trail by as many as TWENTY-NINE points, though did manage to collect themselves after intermission, cutting the deficit to a manageable eight points in the third frame. Unfortunately, that would be as close as (Head Coach) Jason Kidd’s charges would get, as a quick 14-0 surge from their opponent essentially killed off the affair altogether. So, what in the name of Don Nelson happened to the Mavs, you ask? Well, as we’ll get into shortly, it’s nigh impossible to beat these Celtics when you are at a 27-point disadvantage from beyond the arc. The Mavericks’ offense was terrible for long stretches of Game One, including the opening stanza where they could muster a mere 9-of-24 shooting (37.5%), including 2-of-8 from downtown (25.0%), with zero free-throws and nearly as many turnovers (2) as assists (3). The third quarter wasn’t much better, but the at least their defense finally showed up, limiting Boston to 6-of-18 shooting (33.3%), but 36.0% shooting from the visiting side put a hard cap on just how far they could cut into that huge lead. At the end of the day, the Western Conference Champions shot 41.7% from the floor, 7-of-27 from three (25.9%), and conceded eighteen points off eleven turnovers, though the biggest takeaway from this loss was their utter lack of ball-movement. Sure, this is a team that can fall into heavy isolation basketball with the dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving (pictured together below) taking turns tormenting the defense with ruthless precision, but it is awfully difficult to win a game, let alone in the Finals, when you total just NINE assists, which is by far and away a season-low for Kidd & Co. Dallas is now 6-13 when logging twenty or fewer dimes this season, while Doncic, who averaged 9.8 assists during the regular season and 8.4 in these playoffs, was relegated to ONE on Thursday night despite logging over thirty-eight minutes of action. The NBA’s leading scorer (33.9) finished with thirty points on 12-of-26 shooting (46.2%), while Irving ended up with just twelve points on 6-of-19 shooting (31.6%) in his return to Beantown, a place where there is NO love lost for the mercurial Guard. Simply put, if the Mavs are going to get back into this series, then they’re not only going to need their stars to play like stars, but they must move the ball more fluidly rather than playing into their opponent’s hands. One of the prime reasons for their dramatic turnaround midway through the campaign was Kidd’s insistence that they push the tempo, passing the ball ahead of the defense to set up opportunities in transition. From 2020-2021 to 2022-2023, the Mavericks ranked no better than twenty-fourth overall in pace (possessions per 48 minutes), though jumped all the way to SIXTH this season, which got the supporting cast into the mix while also adding another dimension to the two-way game between Doncic and Irving.
From a betting perspective, the public appears to be deadlocked on the spread heading into tonight’s sequel in Beantown, with roughly 50% of all bets wagered riding with the Mavericks. Needless to say, that represents a steep drop from the 73% share that they owned in Thursday’s opener. With that being said, this team has been the best bet on that front that the Association has had to offer for quiet sometime now; Dallas is a stellar 35-16 versus the spread dating back to February 5th, covering nearly 69% of their games. It should also be noted that since Kidd took over two years ago, this is a group that has historically struggled in series openers. Apart from their rally in Game One of this past Western Conference Finals, the Mavs had lost FIVE consecutive openers, with Thursday night’s defeat marking their sixth in seven series dating back to the 2022 Playoffs. With that being said, they have proven their resilience time and time again, winning and covering three of their previous five Game Twos, including those in the First Round and the Western Semifinals of this current postseason run. Furthermore, Doncic & Co have covered six consecutive games following a spread loss, while covering five in a row after a straight-up defeat and have yet to lose back-to-back games in these playoffs. However, with their opening loss in these Finals, they have now dropped five straight meetings with the Celtics (3-2 ATS). Historically, this is a franchise that is making their third appearance in the Finals, having split their previous two trips to this stage. In 2006, they conceded four straight games after racing out to a commanding 2-0 lead, though in 2011, they rallied to win their first O’Brien Trophy despite trailing 1-2.
Meanwhile, any fears of the Celtics (64-18, 1st in Eastern Conference) being rusty and lethargic after enjoying nine days off before the opening tip of Thursday night’s 107-89 triumph were put to rest early, folks. As we covered already, the hosts pounced on the visiting side in the first quarter, scoring more points from beyond the arc (21) than their opponent could in totality (20). Ironically, it was none other than (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis who set the tone early; the Latvian International has missed the last ten games after suffering a calf strain late in their first-round conquest of the Heat, with many pundits claiming that his return to form would be necessary for Boston to capture championship no. 18. Well, Game One couldn’t have started any better for Porzingis (pictured below), with the big fella pouring in ELEVEN of his twenty points on 4-of-5 shooting (80.0%), three rebounds, and a pair of blocks against his former employers to boot. (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla ended up with six different players scoring in double-figures, including a team-high twenty-two points from (All-Star Guard) Jaylen Brown, along with a combined twenty-seven points from the backcourt duo of Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, who also did a tremendous job of hounding Irving throughout the contest. Hell, to win so convincingly without a strong performance from (All-NBA Forward) Jayson Tatum (16 points on 6-of-16 shooting and 6 turnovers) is proof positive of how formidable this group really is when they are whole. With all that being said, the biggest takeaway from this affair was the Celtics’ onslaught from the perimeter, where they knocked down 16-of-42 three-pointers (38.1%), leading to a commanding 27-point advantage. Simply put, this has served as the barometer for their success for quite a while now; Boston ranked first in treys made (16.5) and attempted (42.5) this season, while clocking in at second overall in percentage (38.8%), with EIGHT different players knocking down 100+ threes, seven of which netting over 37.0%. Furthermore, when they hit 16+ triples, they are 51-6 between the regular season and playoffs, which also serves as the primary reason that enjoyed the largest overall point differential in NBA history (11.4). On Thursday night, they had SEVEN different members of the rotation net multiple treys, fueling their two massive runs, a 23-5 surge in the first quarter followed later in the third period by a 14-0 sprint.
From a betting perspective, the volume of bets may be deadlocked between these two teams, but the overall money being wagered on tonight’s Game Two tells a different story, with approximately 39% of all the green exchanging hands siding with the Celtics. Of course, that is largely due to the fact that there remains a sizable gulf between this team’s straight-up record (77-20) and their ledger against the spread (54-46-2). That’s a difference of TWENTY-THREE games, folks, with that latter mark equating to a net profit of just 3.09 units. However, another possible reason for the public’s trepidation in backing Boston, is due to them being the opposite of their series counterpart. While Dallas has been stellar in Game Twos during this postseason, Mazzulla’s troops have been rather erratic; After winning their openers against the Heat and Cavaliers by a combined FORTY-FIVE points, Tatum & Co proceeded to lose the direct sequels by an aggregate of THIRTY-FOUR points, marking the only two defeats that they have sustained in these playoffs. Furthermore, the Celtics have failed to cover four straight contests following a straight-up victory by 10+ points, which is obviously the case tonight. However, as we touched upon earlier, they have more or less owned the Mavs of late, winning and covering each of their last FIVE encounters dating back to November of 2022, which have been decided by an average margin of 19.4 points. Historically, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to the Finals, making their TWENTY-THIRD all-time appearance and second in three years, winning a joint-record SEVENTEEN championships along the way. Boston has won Game One of the Finals on SIXTEEN occasions, going on to claim victory in their series THIRTEEN times. It should be noted that one of the two instances in which they had lost the series after winning the opener was in their most recent trip to this stage of the postseason, the 2022 Finals in which they were bested by the Warriors despite racing out to a 2-1 lead.