8:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Mavericks -1.5, Over/Under: 212.5
As the scene shifts to North Texas, the 2024 NBA Finals have been nothing short of a one-sided affair thus far, as the Boston Celtics look to take a commanding 3-0 lead over the Dallas Mavericks, who are desperate to rally back into this series at home, with Game Three set to take place tonight from American Airlines Center. Alright, ladies and gentlemen, THIS is what we wanted to see out of the Celtics (64-18, 1st in Eastern Conference) in these Finals: winning an ugly, halfcourt affair in which they were far from their best. After overwhelming their opponent in Thursday night’s opener (107-89) on the strength of a +27 advantage from beyond the arc, Boston managed to fight back and claim victory despite a rather pedestrian performance from the perimeter, netting 10-of-39 treys (25.6%) equating to a differential of +12. This has long been a team that has lived and died by the three, so how did (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla’s charges manage to pull this one out, you ask? Well, this one really came down to the other end of the hardwood, where the hosts put together another stifling defensive performance. Sure, they shipped 47.5% shooting from the field and were outscored 54-46 in the paint, but they continued to clamp down the perimeter where they yielded 6-of-26 three-pointers (23.1%), while also harassing the visitors into turnovers (15), which parlayed to another TWENTY-ONE points. Through the first two games of this series, these have been the most telling figures, as the Celtics are +39 from downtown and have forced twenty-six total turnovers for a cumulative thirty-nine points, which translates to a +14 advantage. Furthermore, they are +12 in fastbreak points to boot. Despite shooting just 6-of-22 from the floor (27.3%), (All-NBA Forward) Jayson Tatum nearly amassed a triple-double with eighteen points, nine rebounds, and twelve assists, while his longtime running mate, (All-Star Swingman) Jaylen Brown continued to shine brightly with twenty-one points, four boards, seven dimes, and three steals. There has been a lot of talk in the media circulating around exactly whose team this is (with the opposition stoking said flames), but these guys have proven that it’s nothing more than bull@#$, for this group’s strength all year has been, well… the group. Game One featured (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis make his return from a calf injury that had cost him ten consecutive games, erupting for twenty points off the bench against his former employers, only for their veteran Backcourt of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White to take over with a combined forty-four points, sixteen rebounds, five assists, four steals, and three blocks. The former led the way with twenty-six points on a superb 11-of-14 shooting (78.6%), while the latter’s defense was nothing short of sublime, logging a clutch block on a runaway layup that would have trimmed their lead to just three points with a hair over a minute left to play. There was a bit of controversy in the fact that Brown’s (pictured alongside White and Mazzulla) hand appeared to be squarely pushing their opponent in the back as he also reached for the rejection, though the officials neglected to blow the whistle, while the visiting side was already out of challenges.
From a betting perspective, the public appears to be convinced after seeing the Celtics handle their business in the first two games of these Finals, as approximately 58% of all spread bets wagered upon tonight’s Game Three are siding with the visitors. While there is a sizable gulf between their straight-up success (78-20) and that against the spread (49-44-5), Boston has been a hard play in that latter regard, covering just three of their last ten games (3-6-1 ATS). However, tonight’s trip to North Texas marks a rarity for Mazzulla & Co, who find themselves receiving point from the oddsmakers for the FIFTH time all season (2-2 ATS), including the first in these playoffs. The Celtics are unbeaten (5-0-1 ATS) in their last six meetings with the Mavericks, though have failed to cover six of their last ten ventures away from TD Garden, with a 1-4 ledger in their past five road games against an opponent sporting a win percentage of .600 on their home floor, which is the case tonight. With that being said, that train of thought hasn’t necessarily applied to their history in Dallas, where the shamrocks are a healthy 6-3-1 versus the spread in their past ten trips to American Airlines Center. On the injury front, the status of the aforementioned Porzingis is certainly worth monitoring after the towering Latvian appeared to come down awkwardly on his right leg late in the fourth quarter, visibly limping the rest of the way. For those wondering, it was a strain to his right calf muscle that had sidelined him for much of this playoff run, though when questioned about it after the game, he stated “I will die out there.” so make of that what you will. Historically, the Celtics are in a VERY comfortable position in these Finals, for they have NEVER lost at this stage after winning the first two games (8-0). In fact, this is a franchise that is a ridiculous 42-1 all-time in best-of-seven series after racing out to a 2-0 lead, with their lone defeat coming at the hands of the Cavaliers in the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals.
Meanwhile, for the first time in these playoffs, the Mavericks (52-30, 5th in Western Conference) have lost back-to-back games and have thus found themselves staring down the barrel of an 0-2 deficit as they return home for the next two contests. All good things must come to an end, and it appears that Dallas’ stellar 35-15 run from February 5th to the opening of these Finals is finally seeing the pendulum swinging away from (Head Coach) Jason Kidd’s charges. So, after getting the better of three consecutive higher-seeded opponents, what in the name of Dirk Nowitzki has gone wrong for the Mavs? Well, let is begin with the dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving (pictured together), who have been nothing short of dominant throughout their run to the Finals. Despite playing through knee, ankle, and chest maladies, Doncic has gone for 30+ points in both games thus far but has more or less been contained by Boston’s defense; in Thursday’s opener, he was relegated to only ONE assist, while in Sunday’s 105-98 defeat he nearly produced a quadruple-double with thirty-two points, eleven rebounds and assists, along with EIGHT turnovers. We touched upon their turnover woes earlier, and the Slovenian has been a large component of that, totaling TWELVE of his team’s twenty-six giveaways in this series. As for Irving, the mercurial Guard’s rise from the ashes has been one of the better stories of this postseason, though there is no denying that he has struggled to make a positive impact against his former employers. By now, we all know the story of his time in Beantown, which may or may not be affecting his play in this series; the 32-year-old is averaging just 14.0 points on 13-of-37 shooting (35.1%) and has failed to net a single trey in eight attempts. The Celtics have done a tremendous job of being physical with him and making it difficult for one of the best finishers in the Association to put the ball through the nylon. Simply put, if the Mavericks have any hope of getting back into these Finals, then Irving and Doncic must regain their touch, while managing to get their teammates involved. The supporting cast has been a major component to Dallas’ midseason turnaround, with the likes of P.J. Washington, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford all enjoying key moments and making clutch plays throughout this playoff run, though they have all struggled to impact these Finals. Washington, who had developed into a sniper from the corners as defenses collapsed on Doncic and Irving, is a mere 1-of-8 from downtown thus far (12.5%), while Lively has looked like the rookie that he is with more turnovers (4) than field goals (2). Furthermore, Gafford has been dragged away from the rim to contend with Boston’s bigs, opening dangerous space around the rim for their opponent to exploit. With that being said, there are other issues at play here, folks. We covered the disparity in threes (-39) along with the deficit in both points off turnovers (-14) and in transition (-12), but the Mavs also been very poor from the charity stripe, netting 28-of-43 free-throws (65.1%) for a -4 differential. As a team, they have shot just 72.1% in these playoffs, the worst in the field, despite attempting by far and away the most (448).
From a betting perspective, there is a disparity in the percentage of total bets wagered and the percentage of money changing hands for tonight’s sequel in North Texas, as roughly 53% of the latter is riding with the Mavericks. That is in all likelihood due to the smart bettors playing the trends; this is a team is a stellar 35-17 against the spread since February 5th, while losing three consecutive games during that stretch just twice. Furthermore, Dallas has made a lot of money for the public this season, with their net profit of 12.64 units standing among the best in the NBA. With that being said, Kidd & Co have been rather mediocre of late when favored and when at home, posting identical 5-5 records versus the spread. As we stated earlier, they have really struggled against Boston, losing six consecutive encounters, while covering none along the way (0-5-1 ATS). However, though Sunday’s affair didn’t play out this way, resilience has been one of the most notable calling cards, for the Mavs are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games following a straight-up loss. Historically, the Mavericks find themselves in a tough spot, for this is a franchise that is 2-10 all-time in series in which they have fallen behind 0-2. With that being said, they can look no further than the 2022 Western Conference Semifinals for inspiration, where Doncic & Co turned the tables on the top-seeded Suns in stunning fashion dropping the first two games in Phoenix, eventually claiming victory in seven contests.