8:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Mavericks -1, Over/Under: 211.5
It appears that the 2024 NBA Finals could conclude as quickly as they began, as the surging Boston Celtics stand one game away from making history, while the Dallas Mavericks are desperate to simply buy some time for themselves in this potential fourth and final chapter from American Airlines Center. On game. That is all that stands between the Celtics (64-18, 1st in Eastern Conference) and history, claiming what would be their EIGHTEENTH NBA Championship, and their first since 2008. From the opening tip back in October to tonight’s potential finale, Boston has been the best team in the Association by a wide margin with the numbers certainly proving their superiority. (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla’s troops are seven games better than the closest teams overall and finished thirteen games clear of their closest competition in the East. Their net point differential (+11.4) stands as the best single season mark of all-time, while their net rating margin of +11.6 is the fourth-best ever. Furthermore, this is a group that has held a lead of 20+ points in over HALF of their ninety-nine total games between the regular season and the playoffs, including a 21-point advantage in Wednesday night’s 106-99 victory in Dallas. Trailing 50-51 at intermission, the visitors put together a virtuoso third quarter in which they utterly eviscerated the hosts 35-19, shooting an insane 13-of-20 from the field (65.0%), including 5-of-11 from three (45.5%), with eight assists and zero turnovers. (All-Star Guard) Jaylen Brown, who has been on a tear throughout this postseason, erupted for fifteen of his thirty points in that period, netting 6-of-9 attempts overall (66.6%) and dishing out three assists to boot. In the end, the visitors shot 46.3% overall and 17-of-46 from beyond the arc (37.0%), drawing comparisons to their performance from the perimeter in Game One, besting the Mavs by TWENTY-FOUR points. Simply put, this has proven to be the difference in this series, as the Celtics have netted 43-of-127 treys (33.9%) through three games, which equates to a +63 differential or in other words, a 21.0-point per game margin. This should really come as no surprise, folks, for Boston has thrived off the money ball for quite some time now, as no team attempted (1,482) or made (1,351) more three-pointers than they did this season. Basically, it comes down to simple math for Mazzulla, who given their large cache of shooters (8 players with 100+ treys), they need to attempt 40+ triples per game in order to best their opponents. To put this into perspective, the Celtics shot 37.0% from three and the Mavericks 36.0%, though the former attempted twenty-one more than the latter, which is why they outscored them so. It also helped that their stars came to play in Game Three, as (All-NBA Forward) Jayson Tatum buoyed Brown’s thirty points with thirty-one of his own, while continuing to make up for lesser shooting (11-of-26 FG) in other areas, logging six boards, five dimes, and a steal. This has been far from a good shooting postseason for Tatum (pictured below with Brown), netting 42.6% of his overall attempts and just 29.1% from three, but his overall display would say otherwise, with 10.1 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.0 steal helping pave the way to a championship. Whether this series ends tonight or in the coming week, it will serve as validation for Tatum and Brown, who in their seven years together in Beantown have continued to knock on the door to no avail; Boston had advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals four times in the previous six campaigns only to come up short of hanging banner number eighteen. Well, it looks like they won’t have to wait much longer…
From a betting perspective, it appears that the public has indeed seen enough after viewing the first three games of this series, with approximately 62% of all spread bets being wagered upon the Celtics. The line is even smaller than it was in Wednesday night’s affair (+3), which definitely bodes well for a team that is one win away from claiming a championship. While we’ve lamented the wide gulf between Boston’s straight-up success (79-20) and that against the spread (50-44-5), they have still managed to be a profitable group when it comes to the latter, earning a net profit of 1.45 units. Furthermore, in closeout opportunities, Mazzulla’s troops are 3-0 straight-up and 1-2 versus the spread in these playoffs. Again, if they win tonight, then they will certainly cover the spread. Tatum, Brown & Co have won SEVEN consecutive meetings with the Mavericks, covering all but one of them (6-0-1 ATS), while cleaning up on the rare occasion that they’ve received points from the oddsmakers. In fact, Game Three was just the FIFTH time all season that they have been underdogs (3-2 ATS). With that being said, the Celtics haven’t been able to stand much prosperity when it comes to covering when following such a game, residing in an 0-3-1 stretch after covering the spread. On the injury front, we doubt that we’ll see the likes of (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis again in the series, no matter how long it lasts, with multiple lower leg maladies suffered at the end of Game Two leaving his availability hanging in the balance. After missing ten straight playoff games due to a right calf strain, the Latvian International not only reaggravated that muscle on Sunday night but suffered what has been described as a rare left posterior tibiallis dislocation in his lower left leg as well. Granted, this is a very different team without his presence on both ends of the hardwood, but as we saw in Game Three, Boston is more than capable of getting the job done. Historically, no team has ever lost a playoff series after winning the first three games, while the Celtics as a franchise have gone on to register FIFTEEN sweeps all-time, though only one has ever come in the Finals (1959). In truth, sweeps are something of a rare commodity at this stage of the postseason, with only NINE occurring in NBA History, the most recent of which coming in the 2018 NBA Finals, when the Warriors casually swept away the Cavaliers.
Meanwhile, all good things eventually come to an end, with this stellar run that the Mavericks (52-30, 5th in Western Conference) have been on for the past four months reaching a bitter conclusion. Remember, this was a team that was 26-23 back on February 3rd, only to completely reinvent themselves thanks to some inspired work in the draft, landing (rookie Center) Dereck Lively II twelfth overall, and a transformational trade deadline that netted the tandem of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. From that point on, Dallas has owned a win percentage of .660, vaulting them clear of the dreaded play-in tournament and completing successive upsets of three higher seeds in the competitive West to reach their third NBA Finals in franchise history. Along the way, (MVP finalist) Luka Doncic and (veteran Guard) Kyrie Irving emerged as one of the most lethal backcourt tandems in NBA lore, while Lively, Washington, and Gafford played instrumental roles within a supporting cast that had proven to be greater than the sum of their individual parts. Indeed, (Head Coach) Jason Kidd got them playing much faster than they had in the past, ranking sixth in pace (100.1 possessions per 48 minutes), while evolving into one of the stingiest defensive units over the second half of the campaign. Unfortunately, all of that has flown out the window in this series against the Celtics, which is proving to be a nightmare matchup. So, what has gone wrong for the Mavs, you ask? Well, we already covered the disparity in three-point shooting, but it gets deeper than that, folks. While they haven’t been able to defend Boston on the perimeter or keep them from carving them up in the paint, the biggest takeaway from our perspective is just how unproductive and ineffective the offense, led by Doncic and Irving, has been over these three games. Thus far, the Mavericks have yet to score 100 points, averaging a meager 95.3 points on 44.4% shooting from the field, including a miserable 28.2% from downtown, with nearly as many turnovers (34) as assists (45). There simply hasn’t been enough ball-movement by a team that can be prone to long stretches of isolation basketball courtesy of Doncic or Irving, and while that approach was enough to topple the Clippers, Thunder, and Wolves, it has been playing right into the Celtics’ hands. Doncic (pictured below) has played through injuries (which we’ll discuss shortly) and still managed to put up 29.7 points per game, but he hasn’t been much of a facilitator with only three more assists (18) than turnovers (15), while also flopping hard from the charity stripe (10-of-17 FT). Furthermore, his persistent chirping at the officials ultimately led to him fouling out with four minutes left to play in Wednesday night’s narrow 99-106 defeat, while trying to draw a charge, no less. Down twenty-one points in the second half, the hosts rallied all the way back to cut the deficit to a single point but could get no closer as the league’s leading scorer watched helplessly from the bench. As for Irving, the former Celtic finally arrived after two very underwhelming games in Beantown, but his twenty-seven points wouldn’t be enough to close the gap and get his current team back into this series. Between the two of them Doncic and Irving have shot 43.8% thus far, including 13-of-42 from beyond the arc (30.9%), with 9.3 assists opposed to 7.3 turnovers. Coming into these Finals, the only way that Dallas was going to pull the upset was if these guys played like the superstars that they are, but now they find themselves in an untenable situation where they’ll have to win four consecutive games against a team that has lost just twenty times in nearly a hundred contests.
From a betting perspective, the disparity in the volume of total money being wagered upon tonight’s spread is closer but doesn’t favor the Mavericks, with roughly 45% of all green changing hands siding with the hosts. Dallas has certainly been one of the best bets in the Association on this particular front, owning a stellar 59-42-1 record versus the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 11.64 units. Much of that success has been accrued since early February, as Kidd’s troops are 35-17-1 in that regard. Unfortunately, it appears that they have finally hit the proverbial wall, with an 0-2-1 ledger against the spread in this series, while failing to cover any of their past seven encounters with the Celtics. Furthermore, these three consecutive losses mark just the third time since February 5th that they have done so. Tonight, we shall see just how resilient Doncic & Co can continue to be. The Mavs are 6-0-1 versus the spread over their last seven games following a spread defeat, while posting a 5-1-1 mark in that same vein in their past seven outings after a straight-up loss. On the injury front, nobody is unavailable to Dallas for tonight’s potential finale, though it should be stated that Doncic have been a walking operation board for much of this series; already nursing a sprained ankle and a bulky knee, the Slovenian International suffered a bruised chest in taking a charge at the end of Game One. Of course, he has played through these ailments admirably, though as we detailed earlier, his efficiency has certainly suffered along the way. Historically, no team has ever managed to win a series after falling behind 0-3, with only four teams ever prolonging said series to a Game Seven. The Mavs have been swept just twice all-time, with only one of those instances coming in a best-of-seven series (2012). In fact, after dropping the first three games of a postseason set, this is a franchise that has never stayed alive longer than five games, doing so on four occasions.