Our 2024 NFL division preview takes a turn southward to the AFC South, where the Texans are loading up to defend their crown, while the other three teams look to regroup. Will an even deeper supporting cast vault Houston into the realm of the AFC elite? Will Indianapolis and Jacksonville remain healthy enough to push them? Will this new era in Tennessee hit the ground running or will they be stalled by growing pains? Never boring, the South is always full of surprises…
Houston Texans
Key Arrivals: Stefon Diggs (WR), Joe Mixon (RB), Cam Akers (RB), Cameron Erving (OG), Danielle Hunter (DE), Azeez Al-Shaair (LB), Jeff Okudah (CB)
Key Departures: Devin Singletary (RB), Sheldon Rankins (DT), Maliek Collins (DT), Jonathan Greenard (Edge), Denzel Perryman (LB), Blake Cashman (LB)
Season Outlook: Arguably the biggest surprise in the NFL last Fall, the Texans went from going 11-38 in the 3 previous seasons to 10-7 and a division title in the first year of a new era in Southern Texas. Simply put, (General Manager) Nick Caserio struck gold on multiple fronts, first in hiring (Head Coach and former Linebacker) DeMeco Ryans to lead the project, before wheeling and dealing his way to the second and third overall picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, selecting the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year, C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson. After splitting their first 6 games, Houston surged to a 7-4 record after their bye week, besting the Colts in an epic 23-19 finale before blowing the doors off the Browns on Wild Card Weekend (45-14). Though they would come up short in Baltimore a week later (34-10), the future appeared to be very bright for a franchise that had endured a very difficult stretch. And it is with that said that Caserio and Ryans went about making their team even more formidable heading into 2024, upgrading the roster with the likes of (4-time Pro-Bowler) Diggs, (productive Tailback) Mixon, and one of the most lethal pass-rushers in the form of Hunter (87.5 career sacks). In 4 seasons in Buffalo, Diggs hauled in 445 receptions for 5,372 yards and 37 touchdowns, while Mixon has logged no fewer than 1,200 yards from scrimmage in each of his last 3 years in Cincinnati. Given the weapons already at his disposal and the return to (Offensive Coordinator) Bobby Slowik, it is fair to suggest that Stroud will be even better than he was during his historic rookie campaign. The 22-year-old completed 63.9% of his throws for an average of 273.9 yards per game (1st Overall) on a healthy 7.03 net yards per attempt with 23 touchdowns opposed to just 5 interceptions. Furthermore, his interception percentage (1.0%), was the lowest of any QB with at least 3 starts last season, which again is nothing short of remarkable when you consider his lack of experience.
Indianapolis Colts
Key Arrivals: Joe Flacco (QB), Raekwon Davis (DT), Laiatu Latu (Edge), Adonai Mitchell (WR)
Key Departures: Gardner Minshew (QB), Zack Moss (RB)
Season Outlook: Another team that was expected to be rebuilding though ended up as a pleasant surprise was the Colts, who if not for a thrilling defeat at the hands of the Texans in the regular season finale, would have qualified for the playoffs. Built largely upon homegrown talent excavated by (General Manager) Chris Ballard, his choice of hiring Shane Steichen as Head Coach proved to be a stroke of genius, as the talented mastermind did a brilliant job of shifting his tactics despite a major setback midway through his first campaign in Indianapolis. (5th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft) Anthony Richardson saw his rookie run ended prematurely due a concussion and a separated shoulder, despite proving to be a dynamic weapon within Steichen’s system; in just 4 games, Richardson threw for 577 yards and rushed for 136 more, accounting for 7 touchdowns along the way. Miraculously, the offense adopted a completely different approach once Minshew took over, with the wily veteran leading the Colts to the cusp of the postseason. Now with Minshew out the door, the club will be counting upon Richardson to realize his lofty potential. In the event that he struggles to remain healthy, Indy went out and added an insurance policy in the form of (former Super Bowl MVP) Flacco, who enjoyed a renaissance of his own in Cleveland late last season. Of course, a return to form from (2021 Rushing Champion) Jonathan Taylor would unlock another level of this attack; the 25-year-old has been hampered by injuries over the past 2 seasons, missing 13 games along the way, with his rushing production decreasing sharply (4.4 yards per carry). Hell, he even demanded a trade prior to last season, though Steichen and Ballard managed to mend fences and keep him in Indianapolis.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Arrivals: Mac Jones (QB), Gabe Davis (WR), Mitch Morse (C), Ronald Darby (CB), Darnell Savage (S), Terrell Edmunds (S), Brian Thomas (WR), Ryan Nielsen (DC)
Key Departures: Calvin Ridley (WR), Darious Williams (CB), Rayshawn Jenkins (S), Zay Jones (WR), Mike Caldwell (DC)
Season Outlook: Thought by many to be the clear favorites to repeat as division champions, the Jaguars ended 2023 as one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL. Despite an 8-3 start to the campaign, Jacksonville utterly collapsed down the stretch, losing all but 1 of their final 6 contests en route to narrowly missing the playoffs. Multiple injuries to (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Trevor Lawrence derailed their progress, as the 24-year-old suffered ankle and shoulder maladies that clearly influenced his ability to throw the football and evade the pass-rush. During this stretch, Lawrence completed 62.3% of his throws for an average of 254.0 yards per game, though could muster just 6.1 net yards per attempt, with 10 total touchdowns and as many turnovers and sacks. Turnovers were a persistent issue throughout the season for (Head Coach) Doug Pederson & Co, with a whopping 30 of them (28th Overall) wiping out the good will of 27 takeaways (8th Overall). Furthermore, the pass defense was rather porous, yielding 239.8 yards per game (26th Overall) and 27 touchdowns (25th Overall), which is why Pederson and General Manager) Trent Baalke ultimately decided to shake things up with the dismissal of Caldwell and the hiring of Nielsen, who had spent the previous year in that same role with the Falcons after a half-decade serving in various roles with the Saints. 4 of the Jags’ first 6 picks in last Spring’s NFL Draft were on the defensive side of the football, while the likes of Darby, Savage, and Edmunds were brought in to add different kind of veteran aesthetic to the Secondary. As a whole, this is a team that certainly has the talent to win the division and compete for greater things, though it remains to be seen if their youth will once again betray them.
Tennessee Titans
Key Arrivals: L’Jarius Sneed (CB), Calvin Ridley (WR), Tony Pollard (RB), Tyler Boyd (WR), Quandre Diggs (CB), Chidobe Awuzie (CB), Jamal Adams (S), Brian Callahan (HC)
Key Departures: Mike Vrabel (HC), Derrick Henry (RB), Ryan Tannehill (QB), Andre Dillard (OT), Teair Tart (DT), Azeez Al-Shaair (LB), Sean Murphy-Bunting (CB)
Season Outlook: While their rivals will likely be vying for the playoffs, it is the beginning of a new era in Nashville, where the Titans decided to turn the page following a 6-11 finish, their second consecutive losing campaign, and worst since 2015. After his first season on the job (General Manager) Ran Carthon opted to part ways with a number of prominent figures in Tennessee, including the triumvirate of Vrabel, Henry, and Tannehill, who were largely responsible for the success that the franchise enjoyed from 2019 to 2021 (32-17, 2 division titles). Replacing Vrabel in Callahan, who had spent the last 5 seasons as the Offensive Coordinator for the Bengals, presiding over an explosive attack littered with homegrown talent. That will be his task this Fall, as he looks to further the development of (Sophomore QB) Will Levis, while fleshing out the supporting cast around him, with the versatile weapons such as Ridley, Pollard, and Boyd, the latter of which was with him in Cincinnati. Furthermore, the Secondary will be receiving a massive shot in the arm after logging an NFL-low 6 interceptions; (2-time Super Bowl Champion) L’Jarius Sneed arrived via trade with the Chiefs, while (veteran Defensive Backs) Chidobe Awuzie, Quandre Diggs, and Jamal Adams could give this unit an altogether different look on the back end. Furthermore, it should be noted that Callahan is bringing his father, Bill, along with him. One of the most respected Offensive Line coaches in league history, the elder Callahan will be charged with rebuilding this once fearsome group in the trenches. The Titans ranked 28th on third down (33.5%) and 26th in the red zone (47.9%), while shipping the fourth-most sacks in the NFL (64). For the second year in a row, Carthon used his first-round pick on an Offensive Lineman, following the selection of Pete Skoronski with that of the massive J.C. Latham, whose physicality should make him an immediate asset in the run game.