Our 2024 NFL Division Preview moves on over to the NFC South, where the division once again looks to be wide-open despite the recent dominance of the Buccaneers. With their Quarterback secure, will Tampa secure the fourth consecutive crown? Will a new playcaller unlock the offense in New Orleans? Speaking of unlocking potential, will the arrival of Kirk Cousins allow Atlanta to finally fly? Lastly, will Carolina finally get their @#$% together? Get ready, folks…
Atlanta Falcons
Key Arrivals: Kirk Cousins (QB), Raheem Morris (HC), Darnell Mooney (WR), Michael Penix (QB),
Key Departures: Desmond Ridder (QB), Taylor Heinicke (QB), Jonnu Smith (TE), Bud Dupree (Edge), Calais Campbell (DE), Jeff Okudah (CB), Cordarrelle Patterson (WR), Arthur Smith (HC), Ryan Neilsen (DC)
Season Outlook: After three successive 7-10 campaigns, the Falcons ended the Arthur Smith era in Atlanta, ultimately turning the page towards Morris, who finally gets a Head Coach gig after a 12-year wait. Once upon a time, Tampa hired the wide-eyed skipper at the age of 33, though in hindsight it was likely a case of too much, too soon for Morris, who was eventually dismissed after 3 years in charge. However, in the time that elapsed he appears to have made plenty of friends within the Falcons’ organization, having spent 6 seasons with the franchise in various roles before taking over as interim coach in 2020. From there, Morris enjoyed 3 stellar years in Los Angeles as the Ram’s Defensive Coordinator, winning a Super Bowl in 2021. Now at 47-years-old, he returns to the Dirty-Dirty with designs on maximizing the talent on the roster, which is certainly intriguing. Chosen early in consecutive drafts, the triumvirate of (Tight End) Kyle Pitts, (Wideout) Drake London, and (Tailback) Bijan Robinson are dripping with talent and potential, though were ultimately held back from the ongoing experiment at Quarterback, which was nothing short of a disaster. And it is with that said that Morris and (General Manager) Terry Fontenot made waves in the offseason, first signing Cousins in free agency before shocking everyone in the draft with the selection of Penix at eighth overall. Despite being a considerable upgrade, the former is an interesting case; a 4-time Pro-Bowler, Cousins turns 36-years-old in a week and is coming off a torn Achilles, though has looked strong in training camp. As for Penix, the rookie is coming off a pair of outrageously productive campaigns at Washington, the most recent leading the Huskies to the National Championship Game. Both QBs are very much pocket passers who fit the West Coast Offense that Morris and (Offensive Coordinator) Zac Robinson are importing from Los Angeles. Given that Cousins signed a 4-year, $180 million deal to come to Atlanta, it is unlikely that there is anything remotely close to a competition brewing for the starting job, though if he struggles to regain his form post injury, his young lefthanded deputy will be primed to take over.
Carolina Panthers
Key Arrivals: Dave Canales (HC), Diontae Johnson (WR), Damien Lewis (OG), D.J. Wonnum (Edge), Jadeveon Clowney (DE), A’Shawn Robinson (DT), Jordan Fuller (S)
Key Departures: Brian Burns (DE), Frankie Luvu (LB), Donte Jackson (CB), Vonn Bell (S), D.J. Chark (WR), Hayden Hurst (TE), Bradley Bozeman (C)
Season Outlook: It is hard to fathom the past 18 months going worse for the Panthers as a team and as an organization. First, they build up a wealth of hype by hiring the venerable Frank Reich to be their Head Coach, before trading up to the number one overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, where they selected Bryce Young to be their Franchise Quarterback. However, the team would go on to lose their first 6 games, with all but 2 of them coming by 10+ points, eventually leading to the shocking dismissal of Reich. From there, they finished with the worst record in the NFL (2-15), a miserable stretch in which (Owner) David Tepper continuously embarrassed both himself and his team. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the worst of it, folks, for trading up to number one a year ago meant that Carolina would not reap the benefits of doing so via their lousy record, with Chicago picking in their stead. Compounding matters is the fear that the Panthers sold the proverbial farm and picked the wrong QB in a draft in which the very next passer taken (C.J. Stroud) was a revelation, while being unable to choose any of the stellar talents that were available had they managed to keep their pick this past Spring. Needless to say, it is a mess in Charlotte, which now falls to (new Head Coach) Dave Canales to clean up and build something upon the ashes. A longtime assistant in Seattle before rising to prominence as the Buccaneers’ Offense Coordinator last Fall, the 43-year-old has a strong CV when it comes to developing the passing game, which should be a welcome sight for Young, who endured a miserable rookie campaign; the 23-year-old completed just 59.8% of his throws for an average of 179.8 yards per game on a scant 4.07 net yards per attempt, with 11 touchdowns opposed to 10 interceptions. The more pressing matter was that he was sacked 62 times in 16 starts, which is very concerning for a QB standing 5-10 and slight of frame. Thankfully, Canales managed to maintain the services of (Defensive Coordinator) Ejiro Evero, who was courted by many other teams during the league’s annual hiring cycle; as poor as the overall team was, the Panthers shipped the 4th-fewest total yards in the NFL (293.9), though were ultimately stunted by a mere 11 takeaways (32nd Overall).
New Orleans Saints
Key Arrivals: Chase Young (Edge), Willie Gay (LB), Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB), Taliese Fuaga (OT), Klint Kubiak (OC)
Key Departures: Andrus Peat (OT), James Hurst (OG), Marcus Maye (S), Jameis Winston (QB), Michael Thomas (WR), Jimmy Garaham (TE), Cameron Erving (OG), Pete Carmichael (OC)
Season Outlook: Coming into last Fall, the Saints were expected to win what appeared to be a very weak division, particularly after acquiring the services of (veteran Quarterback) Derek Carr in free agency. A 4-time Pro-Bowler, Carr was expected to stabilize the position after New Orleans had struggled mightily to replace Drew Brees, and while he was certainly steady if unspectacular in his first season in the Big Easy, it wasn’t enough to propel his team to the postseason. With that being said, (Head Coach) Dennis Allen has a bit of a conundrum on his hands, for on paper this team is the most talented in the division, though they rarely appeared to be greater than the sum of their parts. Despite drafting Carr back in 2014, Allen’s familiarity with his QB didn’t lead to smooth sailing on the offensive side of the football, which according to the numbers was middle of the pack; New Orleans ranked 9th in points (23.6), fourteenth in total yards (351.0), eleventh in passing yards (248.5), fifteenth on third down (38.7%), and eighteenth in the red zone (53.3%). Furthermore, they benefitted greatly from +11 turnover differential, which was heavily padded by their 4-1 finish down the stretch against some weaker competition in which they owned a +7 margin in takeaways. The issue was a lack of balance, which is in all likelihood why Allen opted to part ways with (longtime Offensive Coordinator) Carmichael, in favor of Kubiak, who spent last year coordinating the passing game for the 49ers. Will a change in playcalling jumpstart the run game and allow Carr to flourish within a more complementary passing attack? For that matter, how much does (veteran Tailback) Alvin Kamara have left in the tank? The 4-time Pro-Bowler rushed for a career-low 694 yards last Fall, dipping under 4.0 yards per carry for the second time in 3 seasons, though remained a factor in the short passing game with 400+ receiving yards for the seventh consecutive campaign.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Arrivals: Randy Gregory (Edge), Jordan Whitehead (S), Liam Coen (OC), Graham Barton (OG)
Key Departures: Shaquil Barrett (Edge), Devin White (LB), Carlton Davis (CB), Ryan Neal (S), Dave Canales (OC)
Season Outlook: In their first season following Tom Brady’s retirement, expectations were fairly mild for the Buccaneers, who were undergoing a youth reset along the roster, though nonetheless managed to secure their third consecutive division title. (Veteran Quarterback) Baker Mayfield thrived on the Gulf Coast, serving as the trigger man for a vertical passing attack led by the ageless Mike Evans, who in addition to posting his record tenth consecutive 1,000-yard season to begin a career, led the NFL with 13 receiving scores. (Head Coach) Todd Bowles also did a masterful job of directing his defense, which relinquished the seventh-fewest points in the league (19.1), vaulting Tampa Bay to not only an NFC South Title, but an upset of the Eagles on Wild Card Weekend followed by a narrow defeat at the Lions a week later. As a result, Mayfield earned a 4-year, $100 million contract (though only half is guaranteed, with $40 million guaranteed at signing), confirming his status as QB1. However, there are clear challenges that lay ahead of these Bucs this Fall. First and foremost, Bowles will be on his third different Offensive Coordinator in as many seasons, as the aforementioned Canales left to become the Head Coach of the Panthers. The playcaller was a major component for Mayfield’s success as the passing game carried the overall attack. With that being said, no offense was more unbalanced than Tampa’s, ranking dead-last in rushing yards (88.8) and yards per carry (3.4), which has been the case for 2 years now. Replacing Canales is Coen, who comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree in Los Angeles, where the 38-year-old bookended a year as OC with a pair of seasons serving in that same role at the University of Kentucky. Bowles and (General Manager) Jason Licht selected Graham Barton with their first-round pick last Spring, which should go a long way towards establishing a stronger ground game.