12:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Florida State -10, Over/Under: 55.5
Finally, a brand-new era of College Football begins across the pond, as the (No. 10) Florida State Seminoles and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets kick off the 2024 season at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. There are few greater motivations in sports than revenge, which is precisely what Florida State is seeking this Fall. The Seminoles were nothing short of a force of destruction last year, running through the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record before earning their first ACC Championship since 2014. However, the Seminoles lost (Heisman candidate) Jordan Travis to a serious ankle injury in Mid-November, and though they managed to dispose of the likes of Florida (24-15) and Louisville (16-6) without him, his absence ultimately influenced the CFP Selection Committee to omit the undefeated ACC Champions from the Playoff altogether, in favor of one-loss teams such as Texas and Alabama, raising a torrent of vitriol in Tallahassee that can still be heard loudly today. As such, the school is currently embroiled in an ongoing legal battle against the ACC as their attempts to leave the league that they’ve called home since 1992 have been held up by a hefty penalty of $572 million! With that being said, (Head Coach) Mike Norvell enters his fifth season at FSU, where he thinks this current crop of Seminoles can be just as good, if not better than their predecessors, despite losing a whopping TEN starters to the NFL. Norvell has done a tremendous job of recruiting and hitting the Transfer Portal, with the latter coming into play at Quarterback, where D.J. Uiagalelei will be stepping into Travis’ shoes. Of course, Uiagalelei (pictured below) is no stranger to the ACC; the Senior is on his third school in four years, having spent the first three years of his collegiate career at Clemson, before transferring to Oregon State last Fall. Over the course of his well-traveled career, the big fella has thrown for 8,319 yards and fifty-seven touchdowns, while rushing for another 1,132 yards and twenty-one scores to boot. However, there is an ongoing debate that he has yet to reach the lofty ceiling that came with being the top-ranked recruit in the country; Uiagalelei completed just 57.1% of his throws in Corvalis last season, while rushing for a modest 219 yards on 3.2 yards per carry despite having the mobility to be more productive. As far as Norvell is concerned, his skillset, particularly his strong arm (8.2 yards per attempt), should be an ideal match behind the Seminoles’ veteran ground game and experienced Offensive Line. (Tailbacks) Lawrance Toafili and (Alabama Transfer) Roydell Williams each topped over 450 rushing yards and four touchdowns, while the big guys blocking for them in the tranches own a combined 345 starts.
From a betting perspective, Florida State went 13-1 straight-up last season, though just 8-6 against the spread, parlaying to a narrow profit of 1.27 units. With that being said, the Seminoles have been adept at taking care of business and making their bettors money when they’ve left the confines of Doak Campbell Stadium, covering EIGHT of their last ten away games. However, today’s venture to Dublin is about as neutral as it gets, folks, with FSU posting a 9-5 record straight-up in such contests, while recording a 6-8 mark against the spread. Under Norvell’s leadership, this is a program that now 24-23-1 versus the spread, including a 17-16 mark against ACC foes. They’ve also OWEND the Atlantic Coast Conference of late, coming into this campaign with twelve straight victories against league opposition, covering eight of those fixtures along the way. Furthermore, they have been accustomed to sluggish starts when it comes to covering the spread, owning a disappointing 1-6 record in that regard over their last seven contests played in the month of August. Looking at this particular matchup, Florida State leads the all-time series 15-11-1, though have split their two meetings since Norvell arrived in Tallahassee, with the most recent being a 41-16 drubbing of the Yellow Jackets back in 2022. The hosts piled up 642 yards of total offense and logged thirty-two first downs, utterly dominating the visitors despite committing a pair of turnovers and drawing the ire of the officials on thirteen occasions, leading to a loss of 104 yards. As for Uiagalelei, the big fella is 2-0 against Georgia Tech (from his days with Clemson), completing 37-of-57 passes (64.9%) for 336 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for sixty-five yards and another score on twenty-one carries.
Meanwhile, their opponent may have dominated the headlines throughout the offseason, but Georgia Tech should NOT be overlooked, particularly in this season opener in Dublin. The difficult transition away from a decade of running the option is finally in the rearview mirror in Atlanta, as (Head Coach) Brent Key embarks on his second full season with his alma mater aiming higher than simply qualifying for a bowl. At 7-6, the Yellow Jackets finished the campaign with their first winning record since 2016, thanks in large part to fielding the third-ranked offense in the ACC; the bugs averaged 31.1 points (43rd in FBS) on 424.6 total yards, equating to a healthy 6.3 yards per play. (Texas A&M transfer) Haynes King thrived in his first season as the starting Quarterback, leading the conference in passing touchdowns (27), though unfortunately outpaced his competition in interceptions as well (16). The train of thought is that another year together will see the best from King (pictured below), who accounted for 3,729 total yards and thirty-seven scores last Fall, particularly given that his supporting cast is also littered with talent. (Junior Tailback) Jamal Haynes broke out with 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns last season, while (Sophomore Receiver0 Eric Singleton hauled in forty-eight receptions for a team-high 714 yards and six touchdowns. Furthermore, Key, a former O-Line Coach at Alabama, is touting his Offensive Line as one of the best in the nation, with four starters (2 of them All-ACC) back owning 128 combined starts. The question though, will be fixing a defense that was gashed regularly in 2023; Georgia Tech relinquished 29.5 points (97th in FBS) on 437.1 total yards, including 221.3 on the ground at 5.4 yards per carry. In an attempt to assuage these woes, Key hired (Defensive Coordinator) Tyler Santucci from Duke, while five incoming transfers should bolster a unit that returns as many starters. Adding size and athleticism to the Defensive Line was the mandate in the offseason, with said transfers (Jordan van den Berg, Thomas Gore, Jaamen Rochell) arriving from USC, Miami, and Penn State respectively.
From a betting perspective, Georgia Tech went 7-6 straight-up and 8-5 against the spread last season, translating to net profit of 2.27 units. As we draw closer to kickoff, only 30% of all spread-wagers have been placed upon the Yellow Jackets, with roughly 40% of the total amount of money wagered thus far siding with the bugs. Looking back to last Fall, this team was VERY profitable when the odds were against them, with all but one of their eight covers coming as an underdog (7-2 ATS), four of which were by double-digits. Under Key’s direction, this is a program that is now 13-8 versus the spread since taking over midway through the 2022 campaign, including a stellar 10-5 in conference play. The bugs may be 4-5 straight-up at neutral sites over the last ten years, but they have been a shrewd play in their last few neutral-site affairs, particularly when they have been receiving points, covering SEVEN consecutive such games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points, which is the case this afternoon. This trip across the pond also marks the third straight season in which Georgia Tech will be opening at a neutral site, covering against Louisville in a 34-39 thriller (+7) contested at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (which is really a home game when you think about it). Looking at this particular matchup, the Yellow Jackets may be at a disadvantage in the all-time series (11-15-1 SU), but they have managed to take four of the last seven meetings dating back to 2008, including two in Tallahassee. Furthermore, prior to that aforementioned blowout at Doak Campbell from two years ago, they had covered SEVEN consecutive encounters.