8:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: North Carolina -1.5, Over/Under: 50.5
After a brief taste of what is sure to be a brand-new era of college football, the regular season kicks off in full force tonight, as the North Carolina Tar Heels travel to Minneapolis to battle the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the second leg of an annual home-and-home series from Huntington Bank Stadium. After coming into last Fall with plenty of expectations, North Carolina appears to be more of an unknown in 2024 as (Head Coach) Mack Brown enters the sixth season of his second tenure in Chapel Hill. For all intents and purposes, the venerable 72-year-old has done right in restoring the program to a competitive level, posting a 30-22 (.576) record since returning in 2019, including an appearance in the 2022 ACC Championship Game. However, the Tar Heels didn’t handle the pressure of expectations very well last year, rising as high as tenth in the rankings thanks to a 6-0 start, though proceeded to drop four of their final six regular season outings, before getting blown out by West Virginia in the Mayo Bowl (10-30) to finish at 8-5. Gone is (No. 3 Overall Pick in the NFL Draft) Drake Maye, along with FIVE different Offensive Linemen, which means that this typically explosive Offense figures to look rather different. Brown also freshened up the playcalling on both sides of the football, tabbing Chip Lindsey and Geoff Collins as his new Offensive and Defensive Coordinators respectfully. The former has been all over the map, serving in that same capacity at Central Florida, Auburn, Arizona State, and Southern Mississippi, while the latter was Georgia Tech’s Head Coach from 2019 to 2022. Brown has always done a good job of building his coaching staffs, with both of these guys well-suited to their roles, though we won’t pretend that Lindsey doesn’t have the more difficult task ahead of him. First, replacing Maye won’t be easy given how productive his time with the Heels was; in twenty-six games, Maye threw for 7,929 yards and sixty-two touchdowns, while rushing for another 1,147 yards and sixteen more scores. Brown dipped into the Transfer Portal for his successor, selecting (former LSU and Texas A&M Quarterback) Max Johnson to compete with the incumbent Conner Harrell, a redshirt freshman who started the bowl after Maye declared for the draft. With twenty-two starts under his belt, Johnson figures to be the first choice given his experience, though it has been two years since he was a regular starter, tossing twenty-seven touchdowns for LSU. With that being said, Harrell didn’t necessarily turn heads in the postseason defeat to the Mountaineers, completing 18-of-27 passes for 207 yards, a touchdown and a pair of interceptions. while suffering SEVEN sacks. Compounding matters is the aforementioned Offensive Line that returns just ONE starter, owning a combined fifty-nine career starts. If Lindsey can get this group to develop some chemistry early, then UNC’s playmakers can make an impact. (Junior Tailback) Omarion Hampton (pictured below) was voted All-America Second Team last Fall, rushing for 1,504 yards and fifteen touchdowns on a healthy 5.9 yards per carry, while (Senior Tight End) Bryson Nesbit was a semifinalist for the Mackey award, reeling in forty-one receptions, 585 yards, and five scores.
From a betting perspective, North Carolina went 6-7 against the spread last season. After beginning the campaign on a 5-1 run ATS, they failed to cover all but one of their final seven contests, including each of their final four games. During his two tenures at Chapel Hill, Brown is 90-86-3 versus the spread, including 18-21-1 away from Kenan Memorial Stadium and a middling 30-29-1 against non-conference opponents. Since 2020, this is a team that is 10-3 SU (6-6-ATS) versus non-conference opponents, though it should be noted that all three of those defeats have come at the hands of Notre Dame. Furthermore, they have struggled recently on the road, failing to cover each of their last four outings away from home, along with four straight Thursday Night clashes. Looking at this particular matchup, roughly 39% of all bets placed upon the spread favor UNC, while a mere 13% of all of the money wagered has followed suit. With that in mind, these programs have met on the gridiron only once, with that affair favoring the Heels in last year’s 31-13 victory. Brown’s troops raced out to a commanding 21-3 advantage before Minnesota managed to cut into their lead, trailing by eight points early in the third quarter. However, the hosts scored the final ten points of the game, as Maye turned in a solid performance with 414 yards on 29-of-40 passing with a pair of touchdowns and interceptions apiece. Both Hampton and Nesbit caught a score from their former teammate, with the former finishing with sixty-seven yards on fifteen touches, while the latter hauled in four catches for forty-six yards of his own. The Heels outgained the Gophers 519-303, though were rather generous in their run defense, shipping 170 yards on the ground. Looking ahead, UNC returns home for the next three contests, hosting the likes of Charlotte, NC Central, and James Madison before kicking off their ACC schedule at their Tobacco Road rivals, Duke.
Meanwhile, after toiling through a down year, Minnesota looks to get back to the level that saw them competing for a place in the Big Ten Championship Game. However, given the new additions to the conference, that will be much easier said than done as (Head Coach) P.J. Fleck looks to guide the Golden Gophers through a treacherous new terrain. As we all know, the league has grown to accommodate a whopping EIGHTEEN teams, welcoming the additions of the former Pac-12 contingent of USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, which figure to make it that much more difficult to create headway in conference that already features a number of playoff hopefuls. After banking consecutive 9-4 campaigns, Fleck’s troops floundered to a 6-7 finish last Fall thanks in large part to a dismal attack that ranked as one of the worst of the skipper’s seven years in Minneapolis. The Offense averaged just 20.9 points (110th in FBS) on 300.9 total yards, translating to 4.8 yards per play, while suffering a turnover differential of -2 along the way. To fix matters, Fleck hit the Transfer Portal in an effort to find a new Quarterback, settling upon (New Hampshire transfer) Max Brosmer, a finalist for the Walton Payton award, which is the equivalent of the FCS Heisman. Brosmer completed 64.0% of his throws for 3,459 yards, twenty-nine touchdowns and just five interceptions for the Wildcats last Fall, and with thirty-six starts under his belt, should hit the ground the running at Huntington Bank Stadium. Thankfully, he’ll have a strong supporting cast around him, including an experienced Offensive Line containing four returning starters, and a dynamic Backfield littered with weapons. Chief among them is (Sophomore Tailback) Darius Taylor (pictured below), who as a true freshman rushed for 799 yards and five touchdowns on a healthy 5.8 yards per carry. With all that being said, it was equally important that Fleck get his Defense sorted out too, particularly after that unit fell hard on its face in 2023; after shipping fewer than 18.0 points per game in the previous two campaigns, the Gophers yielded 26.7 points (70th in FBS) on 368.4 total yards, parlaying to 5.9 yards per play, which is waaaaay too generous to compete in a league like the Big Ten. Replacing the outgoing Joe Rossi at Defensive Coordinator is Corey Hetherman, who rose to prominence during a stint at James Madison, where he was named FCS Assistant Coach of the Year in 2021. Unlike last season, there is a bevy of returning starters on this side of the football (8 in total), including their top two sack artists, (Defensive Linemen) Danny Striggow and Jah Joyner, who combined for 13.5 sacks and three forced fumbles.
From a betting perspective, Minnesota was a disappointing 4-9 against the spread last season, beginning the campaign on a dismal 1-5 run before ending it in similar fashion (1-4 ATS). During his seven years in Minneapolis, Fleck is 43-38-3 versus the spread, including 7-7-1 as a home underdog, and 14-8-1 against non-conference competition. Keep an eye on that line before tonight’s kickoff, for if it happens to remain in place, then the Gophers become a shrewd play; this is a team that is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 points. Looking at this particular matchup, Minnesota is clearly favored by the public, with approximately 61% of all bets placed upon the spread siding with the hosts, while a commanding 87% of all money wagered has followed suit. With that in mind, the public are betting on this affair being far more competitive than its predecessor. When these teams met last Fall in Chapel Hill, the Gophers simply couldn’t keep up with the firepower of the hosts, shipping a 46-yard touchdown strike in the first quarter, before falling behind 21-3 just before halftime. Fleck’s troops rallied back to cut the deficit to eight points in the third frame but could draw no closer than that. While there weren’t many positives to be found in this contest, the aforementioned Taylor enjoyed a breakout performance with 138 rushing yards and a touchdown on twenty-two carries. Unfortunately, the same couldn’t be said of the passing game, which could muster just 133 yards on 11-of-30 attempts between the likes of Athan Kaliakmanis and Cole Kramer, who each tossed an interception. If the new addition of Brosmer can acclimate to the FBS level quickly, then tonight’s fixture in Minneapolis figures to be a very different matchup. Looking ahead, The Gophers don’t play a true road game until September 28th when they travel to Ann Arbor to battel the reigning National Champions, as they host Rhode Island, Nevada, and (No. 25) Iowa beforehand.