10:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: TCU -9.5, Over/Under: 61.5
Week One of the new college football season continues into the weekend, as the TCU Horned Frogs travel westward to battel the Stanford Cardinal, who look to begin a new era in a new conference with their first home victory in over a full year. it would be hard to fathom two more different campaigns than (Head Coach) Sonny Dykes’ first season with TCU and its sequel. In his first year in Fort Worth, the 54-year-old inherited one of the most experienced teams in the country (18 returning starters), enjoyed a series of great breaks, and ended up competing in Playoff, becoming the first team from the state of Texas to do so. The Horned Frogs pulled a monumental upset of Michigan in the National Semifinal (51-45), before ultimately getting rolled by Georgia in the National Final a week later (7-65). Unfortunately, 2023 was a very different story as just ten starters returned and they struggled to catch the breaks that they did a year prior, missing out on the postseason altogether with a disappointing 5-7 finish. So, will the real frogs please stand up? With Oklahoma and Texas off to greener (southeastern) pastures and Utah and Colorado yet acclimate to a new league, there is an argument to be made that TCU is in position to make a play for a Big XII Championship. Unlike last season, Dykes (pictured below) has a wealth of experience coming back to Amon Carter Stadium, with sixteen in total, including NINE on the defensive side of the football. (New Defensive Coordinator) Andy Avalos is shifting the unit to a 4-man front, which should suit the personnel better than the previous 3-3-5 formation employed by his predecessor. The real question is how the offense will perform with a more veteran unit, yet still lingering questions along the Offensive Line. Dykes has just two players in the trenches that started multiple games last season and was forced to look outside the program for transfers. With the line likely needing time to gel, even more will be placed upon the shoulders of (Sophomore Quarterback) Josh Hoover, who experienced his ups and downs last Fall. Replacing (former QB) Max Duggan was always going to be a tall task, as Hoover took over as the starter for an injured Chandler Morris and manned the position for the final six games of the campaign. Though ball security was an issue (9 interceptions), the redshirt freshman handled himself well enough in completing 62.1% of his throws for 2,206 yards and fifteen touchdowns, and now enters 2024 as QB1. If this group can improve upon their disappointing turnover differential (-7), then the Offense should begin to resemble the high-flying attacks that Dykes has presided over throughout his lengthy coaching career.
From a betting perspective, TCU was also 5-7 against the spread, never managing to cover more than two games in a row. Since arriving in Fort Worth back in 2022, Dykes is 15-11-1 versus the spread, including a 4-2-1 mark as a road favorite, and a 5-3 mark against non-conference opponents. In fact, since 2014, Texas Chirstian is 8-0 straight-up and 7-1 ATS in road non-conference contests. While they were 4-4 overall as a favorite last season, this current spread seems be hitting the sweet spot for the Horned Frogs; they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points, which is the case tonight. Speaking of this particular matchup, these amphibians have earned the favor of the public, with approximately 59% of all spread bets riding on the Frogs, while roughly 64% of all the money wagered on this game following suit. Dykes’ troops are unbeaten in three all-time meetings with Stanford, including a thrilling 38-36 victory in their lone trip to the farm back in 2007. However, there is a more recent encounter between these two programs, namely the 2017 Alamo Bowl in which TCU rallied back from an 18-point deficit to steal a 39-37 triumph. Trailing 3-21 midway through the second period thanks in large part to a rash of turnovers, the toads finally got rolling and never stopped, ending the game on a 36-16 run. (Former Quarterback) Kenny Hill accounted for 374 total yards and three touchdowns, with (former Wideout) Jalen Reagor reeling in five catches for 169 yards and a score.
Meanwhile, no program has been more adversely affected by the shifting landscape in college football than Stanford has. Consider this, folks: (former Head Coach) David Shaw posted a stellar 82-26 (.759) record from 2011 to 2018, winning the Pac-12 on three occasions along with a pair of Rose Bowls, only to fall to 14-28 (.333) from 2019 to 2022, with all but ten of those defeats during that period coming by fifteen or more points. So, what the hell happened, you ask? The university had some of the toughest COVID-19 restrictions in the NCAA, while the Transfer Portal has seen an untenable exodus of talent leave the farm, with many of those players departing being graduates. On the flipside, very few talents were incoming due to their lofty academic standards, making it nigh impossible to build a competitive team in today’s game. This was the task that (Head Coach) Troy Taylor took on in his first year with the Cardinal, as he had only SIX returning starters to count upon last Fall, a campaign that saw his troops outscored by 17.1 points per game and outgained by an average margin of 110.1 total yards, with dismal turnover differential of -4 takeaways. Furthermore, the Offensive Line had ZERO returning starters, the Backfield could muster a mere 546 yards rushing, and (Quarterbacks) Ashton Daniels and Justin Lamson struggled to keep the Offense afloat, with the latter operating more as a designated rushing threat. Furthermore, the Defense shipped 37.7 points (132nd in FBS) on 461.7 total yards, the most allowed by the school since 1993. Oh, and have we mentioned that the Pac-12, the league that they had called home 1968, has ceased to exist? In one of the wilder realignment storylines, Stanford has migrated to the Atlantic Coast Conference, where they hope to hit the ground running with roster in a vastly different place than where it was a year ago. Taylor (pictured below) and his coaching staff now know their players and the players know the system, which alone should make for a more competitive group, with EIGHTEEN returning starters, including ten on the offensive side of the football alone. An excellent offensive playcaller from his days at Utah and a proven builder during his time in guiding Sacramento State to a 12-1 finish, we should see what Taylor is capable of in this, his second season in Paolo Alto. However, there are still some series questions that must be answered. First, will Daniels or Lamson separate themselves as the starter? Daniels completed 58.8% of his throws for 2,247 yards, eleven touchdowns and eight interceptions, while rushing for 292 yards and three scores, though did play rather well in a 46-43 thriller at Colorado and 33-42 near upset of (National Runner-Up) Washington. Second, the Offensive Line may be returning intact, but can one of the young Tailbacks establish themselves as RB1? Lastly, will (Defensive Coordinator) Bobby April’s unit improve (particularly in the Secondary) with eight returning starters? Doing so will go a long way towards getting this proud program back on track, while getting a win tonight would be a great way to get the proverbial ball rolling given that they haven’t tasted victory at Stanford Stadium since October 22nd of 2022.
From a betting perspective, Stanford was marginally more successful against the spread, posting a 5-7 record in that regard, though did struggle down the stretch with three consecutive defeats on that front. The Cardinal failed to cover their lone affair as a home favorite, a narrow 23-20 win over Taylor’s former employers at Sacramento State, while going 1-2 ATS versus non-conference competition. This was a team that was an underdog in ten of their twelve games last Fall, owning a 4-6 mark when receiving points from the oddsmakers, with all but one of those contests featuring a spread greater than a dozen points. Hell, since earning an upset of Oregon back in 2021, they are a miserable 1-14 straight-up against FBS opponents (4-11 ATS) when playing at Stanford Stadium. With that being said, they have won and covered each of their last two season openers, while covering their last four outings contested in the month of August, while also having performed well against Big XII opposition, with a 5-1 mark against the spread in six such meetings. Looking at this particular matchup, approximately 41% of the public favors Stanford and the points they are receiving, though just 36% of all money being wagered on tonight’s spread are following suit. Historically, the Cardinal have never beaten the Horned Frogs, but are 2-1 ATS, with the most recent encounter being that aforementioned thriller in the 2017 Alamo Bowl; Stanford blew a 21-3 lead midway through the second quarter, as the two sides would go on to trade blows, combining for seventy-six points, 857 total yards, and five turnovers.