7:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Texas A&M -3.5, Total: 46.5
It’s a Top 25 clash at College Station, as the (No. 20) Texas A&M Aggies look to begin a new era against one of the true bluebloods of the sport, the (No. 7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who have reloaded and are thus primed for a trip to the Playoff. Entering his third season as Head Coach, Marcus Freeman appears to be repeating the same formula for success that brought Notre Dame a 10-3 finish last year, their seventh 10-win campaign in a decade. Last Fall, the Fighting Irish dipped into the Transfer Portal for a solution at Quarterback, hoping to unlock the potential of an experienced roster, enticing (former Wake Forest QB) Sam Hartman to come to South Bend. Needless to say, Hartman was successful in his lone campaign with the Irish, completing 63.5% of his throws for 2,689 yards, twenty-four touchdowns and eight interceptions, so much so that Freeman opted to go shopping in the ACC once again to find his replacement, Riley Leonard. In three seasons at Duke, Leonard (pictured below) threw for 4,450 yards and twenty-four touchdowns, while rushing for another 1,224 yards and nineteen more scores, though was dogged by injuries last Fall and was relegated to just seven games. In fact, Freeman and his coaching staff got an opportunity to see him firsthand in last year’s narrow 21-14 victory over the Blue Devils. Trailing 13-0 midway through the third quarter, Leonard engineered a pair of touchdown drives to take the lead in the final stanza, before (former Tailback) Audric Estime ripped off a clutch 30-yard jaunt to the end zone with just 0:31 left to play in regulation, followed by the go-ahead two-point conversion. Leonard completed 12-of-27 passes for just 134 yards, a touchdown and an interception, but carried the ground game for the visiting side, rushing for eighty-eight yards on the night. Given that Estime and three starters from the Offensive Line (including First Team All-American Left Tackle Joe Alt), adding an experienced mobile Quarterback is a shrewd move on Freeman’s behalf. Furthermore, (new Offensive Coordinator) Mike Denbrock figures to be a welcome addition for both coach and quarterback; the veteran playcaller worked with Freeman at Cincinnati from 2017 to 2021, before spending last season helping mold (LSU QB) into a Heisman winner. If that isn’t enough, Leonard he should be happy to find himself surrounded by more talent than he ever had in Durham, as plenty of weapons remain in the Backfield and the Receiving Corps, while the Defense returns a whopping NINE starters, including (Second Team All-America Nose Tackle) Howard Cross. Notre Dame allowed just 15.9 points (7th in FBS) on a mere 276.3 total yards, equating to 4.4 yards per play, backed by a healthy turnover differential of +7.
From a betting perspective, Notre Dame was 9-3-1 against the spread last Fall, finishing the campaign with three consecutive covers including a 40-8 drubbing of Oregon State in the Sun Bowl (-6). Under Freeman’s leadership, this is a team that is 16-10-1 versus the spread over the last two seasons, owning a 3-1 mark as a road underdog, and a 13-6-1 record against Power-5 opponents. In fact, the Fighting Irish have covered FIVE of their last six outings as a road dog, which is precisely where they find themselves tonight. Looking at this particular matchup roughly 41% of all bets placed upon the spread have aligned with the golden-domers, though the disparity in money being wagered has proven even less balanced as approximately 8% of the public finances have followed suit. Tonight’s showdown in College Station marks only the sixth all-time meeting between these programs, and their first since 2001, a 3-24 defeat in the heart of the Lone Star State. For enquiring minds, the favorite has won and covered the two regular season encounters, while the favored side is 4-1 overall straight-up and 3-2 against the spread. The Irish have won three of the five affairs, with the most recent coming at South Bend in 2000. On the injury front, keep an eye on the Offensive Line, folks, for (Redshirt Freshman) Charles Jagusah, who was penciled in to replace the aforementioned Alt on the left flank, will miss the entirety of the campaign after suffering an upper body injury in early August. (Sophomore Tackle) Aamil Wagner is likely to shift over from the right side, having started seven games last Fall. With that in mind, did we mention that Leonard has a set of wheels on him?
Meanwhile, the Jimbo Fisher era at Texas A&M has come to an end, folks, with the university shelling out a massive $77.5 million, the largest buyout in college football history, to push the Head Coach out the proverbial door. Needless to say, that is quite a story unto itself, as the Aggies managed to pry Fisher away from Florida State (whom he led to a National Championship in 2013) in an attempt to vault the program into the realm of the elite. However, those dreams were never realized, as A&M fell well short of expectations over the last few seasons, earning a 20-17 record from 2021 to 2023. So, with plenty of egg on their face, what did the school do you ask? Well, they made a very inspired hire in luring (Head Coach) Mike Elko back to College Station. Of course, Elko (pictured below) spent four years as Fisher’s Defensive Coordinator before moving onto Duke where he whipped the Blue Devils into shape, earning a solid 16-9 record in two years. Needless to say, it is NOT easy to win in Durham for a variety of reasons, though the 47-year-old nonetheless earned his share of accolades, including a Military Bowl victory in 2022 and ACC Coach of the Year honors in that same year. If you’ve been reading this far, then you’ll no doubt have put two and two together that Elko was the aforementioned Leonard’s HC during their time together with the Blue Devils with the two individuals serving as the biggest components to their surprising success. However, the question is how quickly this guy can turn around a program that has fallen off the rails in recent years, albeit in arguably the most treacherous conference in the country? Granted, as poorly as they had finished under his predecessor, this is a team still flush with talent after a series of elite recruiting classes, which should come into focus this Fall with a staggering NINE returning starters on each side of the football. Elko should be positively giddy over the group that he is inheriting on the defensive side of the football, though the situation at Quarterback is a bit of different animal. A big reason that Texas A&M floundered last Fall was due to the revolving door at the game’s most important position, with not one, not two, not three, but FOUR different QBs getting the starting nod. After winning the job in the Spring, (Sophomore) Conner Weigman lasted just three games before suffering a season-ending malady, throwing the incumbent Max Johnson into the fray, who started the next five contests before succumbing to a long-term injury of his own. (Fresno State transfer) Jaylen Henderson was next up with four straight starts including the Texas Bowl, where he was knocked out action the game’s first play, leaving (True Freshman) Marcel Reed to play the rest of the way in what would become a 23-31 defeat to Oklahoma State. With Johnson off to North Carolina, Weigman should for all intents and purposes begin the campaign as the starter, though if he for some reason can’t stay healthy or performs below Elko’s standards, both Henderson and Reed possess starting experience.
From a betting perspective, Texas A&M went 5-6-2 against the spread last season, though were downright dreadful over the second half of the campaign, covering just ONE of their final eight outings (1-6-1 ATS). During his two seasons at Duke, Elko was 16-9 versus the spread, including 7-2 as a home favorite, and 6-3 against non-conference opponents. As disappointing as they last few seasons have turned out for the Aggies, they have done well in their openers, winning each of their last six contests to kick off the year. Furthermore, they’ve been even more successful in their home openers, winning each of their last ELEVEN such games at Kyle Field, sporting a stellar 7-4 mark against the spread along the way. Looking at this particular matchup, the public appears to be echoing that sentiment, as roughly 59% of all bets wagered upon the spread are siding with A&M, while an overwhelming 92% of all the money changing hands on this matchup following suit. As we stated earlier, tonight’s affair marks the first meeting between these programs since the beginning of the century, with Texas A&M snapping a three-game losing streak that dated back to 1993. Coincidentally, that encounter also took place at College Station, a 24-3 drubbing in which the hosts relegated the Irish to a scant 191 total yards with three takeaways. On the injury front, the Backfield took a hit with the loss of (Sophomore Tailback) Rueben Owens, who amassed 494 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns. A lower body malady means that (Juniors) Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels will carry the load for the Aggies’ rushing attack.