7:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: LSU -4.5, Total: 64.5
The holiday weekend continues on the gridiron, folks, as a pair of elite programs looking to replace superstars clash in Sin City, as the (No. 23) USC Trojans look to begin a new era in a new league opposite the (No. 13) LSU Tigers, hoping to take advantage of the shifting landscape within their own conference. Entering the third year of his tenure at USC, (Head Coach) Lincoln Riley now guides his troops into uncharted waters as they get set to embark on their first campaign as a member of the expanded Big Ten. After an uneven final farewell to the Pac-12, it is fair to brand these Trojans as a veritable unknown coming into this Fall. So, what has changed for Southern Cal, you ask? Well, there was a sizeable exodus of talent, particularly on the offensive side of the football, led by 2022 Heisman Quarterback and the number one overall pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft, Caleb Williams. Simply put, it is impossible to replace a talent such as Williams, who in two seasons threw for 8,170 yards and SEVENTY-TWO touchdowns, while rushing for another 524 yards and twenty-one more scores to boot. However, it isn’t just Williams that has left campus, for Riley (pictured below) must replace their top two Tailbacks, their top two leading Receivers, and three starters along the Offensive Line. Granted, this is a coach that is heralded as an offensive mastermind, particularly when it comes to developing Quarterbacks, with three of them going on to claim the Heisman Memorial Trophy (Williams, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray). Up next appears to be (Junior QB) Miller Moss, who finally got an opportunity to shine in the 42-28 drubbing of Louisville in the Holiday Bowl. After seeing limited time in eleven games between 2021 and 2023, Moss lit up the redbirds for 372 yards and SIX touchdowns on 23-of-33 passing, giving us a glimpse as to what we can expect from him this Fall. Now, he isn’t remotely close to being the mobile threat that his predecessor was, which means that the ground game and the O-Line are going to have to carry a larger role this season. With that being said, the Defense is going to have to carry its water too, particularly after a dismal showing that saw (former Defensive Coordinator) Alex Grinch lose his job with two games to go. How bad was USC on this side of the ball, you ask? Let’s just say that they fell well below their standards; despite NINE returning starters, the Trojans inexplicably shipped 34.4 points (121st in FBS) on 432.8 total yards, parlaying to 6.1 yards per play allowed, which is simply unbecoming of a playoff contender. This freefall was a big reason that the team finished the regular season on a 1-5 swoon (42.8 points allowed on 456.3 total yards), which coincidentally led to the first three-game losing streak of Riley’s head coaching career. However, there is reason to believe that Southern Cal will turn things around in this regard. First, the arrival of (new DC) D’Anton Lynn from crosstown rivals, UCLA, is nothing short of a coup. Lynn’s troops held USC to a season low THREE rushing yards in a 38-20 thrashing at the Coliseum. Second, Lynn is bringing with him a pair Defensive Backs, namely John Humphrey and Kamari Ramsey, who were both starters for the Bruins, to help bolster a unit that once again features NINE returning starters.
From a betting perspective, USC finished a disappointing 8-5 last season but were frustratingly worse against the spread with a miserable 4-9 mark. After covering two of their first three games to open the campaign, the Trojans proceeded to drop their next SEVEN contests in that latter regard, five of which as favorites. Since arriving in Los Angeles, Riley is 19-8 straight-up and 12-15 versus the spread, including a 5-3 mark against non-conference opponents, and a 1-2 record at neutral sites. In fact, their win over Louisville in the Holiday Bowl marked their first win on a neutral field in ELEVEN tries. As an underdog, Southern Cal is 4-6 in their last ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers, though have managed to cover each of their last two such games, including that aforementioned bowl (+4.5). Looking at tonight’s matchup, the public doesn’t appear to be convinced of these new-look Trojans, with roughly 40% of all bets placed upon the spread taking the points, with around 37% of all the money wagered on this encounter following suit. These schools haven’t met on the gridiron since 1984, splitting their only two meetings. however, Riley is only 1-3 all-time against SEC opposition, which includes a 28-63 shellacking at the hands of LSU in the 2019 National Semifinal, in which his Oklahoma Sooners shipped 693 total yards, thirty-one first downs, and NINE touchdowns in that Peach Bowl massacre. Looking ahead, Southern Cal will return to the Coliseum next weekend for their home opener against Utah State before getting their official baptism by fire as a member of the Big Ten with a trip to the Big House to battle the ninth-ranked defending National Champions, Michigan.
Meanwhile, (Head Coach) Bran Kelly is in an eerily similar situation at LSU, as he too begins his third year with the program. As is the case with his counterpart from Southern Cal, the 62-year-old must replace a wealth of playmakers on the offensive side of the football, including not one, not two, but THREE first-round draft choices. Chief among them is reigning Heisman winner and the second overall choice in last Spring’s NFL Draft, Jayden Daniels, who was one of the most prolific Quarterbacks in college football history. Seriously, folks, this is a guy that became the first player ever to throw for 12,000 yards and rush for another 3,000 in a career, while racking up 3,812 passing yards and 1,134 rushing along with FIFTY total touchdowns last year alone. Furthermore, his two favored targets, (All-American Receivers) Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas were absolute FREAKS, with the former racking up the most receiving yards in school history (1,569) and the latter leading the SEC with seventeen touchdown catches. Former Offensive Coordinator, Mike Denbrock is gone too, which means that Kelly (pictured below) is really starting over on offense. So, what have the Tigers done to fill these voids, you ask? Well, (Junior QB) Garrett Nussmeier has been in Baton Rouge for a while now, and he is expected to take the reins of the attack, having appeared in eighteen games from 2021 to 2023, including a start in the 2022 SEC Championship Game (294 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and was the MVP of January’s 35-31 triumph over Wisconsin in the Reliaquest Bowl (395 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT). While he certainly isn’t the rushing threat that Daniels was, Nussmeier is smart and should benefit from the playcalling and rapport with (Co-OC) Joe Sloan, who was his position coach last season. However, there are major issues on the opposite side of the football, as LSU did NOT meet their standards on Defense either, yielding 28.0 points per game (82nd in FBS) on 416.6 total yards, including 255.6 against the pass. Truthfully, they were even worse in SEC play, shipping 33.0 points on 442.7 total yards, which equated to a +41.0 yards above their opponents’ season averages. To solve the problem, Kelly cleaned house and made (new Defensive Coordinator) Blake Baker the highest-paid assistant coach in the country after two stellar seasons serving in that same role at Missouri. Those tigers of a different stripe relinquished fewer than 340.0 total yards per game in each of his two years in Columbia, and with six returning starters and what will hopefully be a healthier Secondary, this unit should be in for some serious growth. We can’t overstate just how important that last bit is, folks, for the Bayou Bengals had no luck in that regard last Fall. Kelly came into the campaign adding FIVE transfers at Cornerback, only to see them drop like flies with each passing week; they lost one of them in the preseason and another eight games in, while two more were consistently in and out of the lineup due to various maladies. As a result, a unit that was frequently one of the best in the nation turned in a nightmarish run of 63.8% passing, 255.6 yards per game on a generous 7.9 yards per attempt, and twenty-three touchdowns opposed to ten interceptions. This season, three of four starters return, along with the addition of (Texas A&M transfer) Jardin Gilbert, wo started ten games for the Aggies back in 2021.
From a betting perspective, LSU may have gone 10-3 straight-up last Fall, but they were 7-5-1 against the spread, rallying back from a poor start with six covers in their last eight contests. Since arriving in Baton Rouge, Kelly is 20-7 SU and 15-11-1 ATS, including 7-3 in that latter regard against non-conference opponents, and a disappointing 1-4 versus the spread in neutral site affairs. The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games when favored by the oddsmakers. However, they haven’t been accustomed to quick starts in quite a while, suffering defeat in their season opener in each of the last four campaigns, including the past two which have come against Florida State; the first encounter was a 23-24 thriller at Caesars Superdome that ended in controversial fashion, while last year’s 24-45 blowout in Orlando saw the Bayou Bengals outscored 7-31 in the second half. Looking at tonight’s matchup, the public clearly favors LSU with approximately 60% of all bets placed upon the spread favoring Kelly & Co, while an even greater share (63%) of all money wagered has followed suit. This is only the third all-time meeting between these proud programs, with each side winning on the other’s home turf. This is first venture out west for the Tigers since the 2021 season opener, which resulted in a 27-38 loss at UCLA in the Rose Bowl. As for Kelly, he is well acquainted with USC, owning a stellar 8-3 record from his days at Notre Dame. On the injury front, the Receiving Corps could be shorthanded as Chris Hilton and Jelani Watkins are both listed as questionable with ankle and foot ailments. The former hauled in thirteen receptions for 225 yards and a pair of touchdowns last Fall and was expected to be one of the prime replacements for Nabers and Thomas. Looking ahead, LSU returns to Death Valley for their home opener against Nicholls State, before entering into their first SEC clash at South Carolina.