7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Florida State -16.5, Total: 50.0
Labor Day Weekend comes to a close with a holiday special from the Sunshine State, as the (No. 10) Florida State Seminoles look to get back on track in their return home from a disastrous trip to Dublin, welcoming the new-look Boston College Eagles, who are in turn beginning a new era under a familiar face. After a surprising 7-6 finish in which they enjoyed their best record in five years, Boston College was dealt an unexpected blow when (Head Coach) Jeff Hafley opted to leave the program that he had presided over for four seasons, taking a job as the Green Bay Packers’ Defensive Coordinator. Needless to say, it isn’t often that you see a collegiate head coach willingly step down in favor of being an assistant in the NFL, but Hafley was pretty frank in citing the shifting landscape of the collegiate level for his decision, with NIL and the Transfer Portal making it all the more difficult to compete on both the gridiron and the recruiting trail. While we are sure that there are plenty of coaches who feel the same way, his decision did leave the Eagles in a bind, suddenly needing a new skipper much later in the process. Enter Bill O’Brien. The 54-year-old Boston native stepped up to the plate and took the job after spending last season as Offensive Coordinator for the New England Patriots. Needless to say, O’Brien (pictured below) has nothing short of an interesting CV. Having coached under the likes of Bill Belichick in New England and Nick Saban at Alabama, this guy has a wealth of experience working directly under the two most decorated coaches of their respective levels, while also leading successful teams of his own, be it at Penn State (2012-2013), where he rebuilt the program following the Sandusky scandal, or with the Houston Texans (2014-2020). Thankfully, O’Brien is inheriting a good group to build upon, with seventeen returning starters, including NINE on the offensive side of the football. Much of BC’s success last Fall came on the ground (198.8 yards per game), as a veteran Offensive Line opened up a wealth of lanes for the rushing attack to exploit, though it was (Junior Quarterback) Thomas Castellanos who made the biggest impact. After transferring from Central Florida, Castellanos quickly overtook the incumbent Emmitt Morehead and never looked back, leading the team with 1,113 rushing yards and thirteen scores. Granted, he still has a way to go as a passer, having completed just 57.3% of his throws for 2,248 yards, fifteen touchdowns and fourteen interceptions, but the feeling is that O’Brien (a solid playcaller and developer of QBs) can iron out those wrinkles. Defensively, (longtime NFL DC) Tim Lewis is charged with building upon a unit that was gashed for an untenable 188.0 yards per contest on 5.3 yards per carry last season, though with eight returning starters there is again a strong foundation to build upon.
From a betting perspective, Boston College was 5-8 against the spread last Fall, including 3-2 as a road underdog, and 3-5 versus ACC opposition. Unfortunately, the Eagles managed to cover just two of their final six games, though did beat SMU outright in the Fenway Bowl (+12!!!). As for O’Brien, during his two seasons at Penn State, he was 15-9 straight-up, 14-10 against the spread, 4-3 as a road dog, and 9-7 versus conference foes. Looking at tonight’s matchup, BC has lost all but one of their last ten meetings with FSU straight-up, along with each of their last SIX trips to Tallahassee (2-4 ATS). Recency bias appears to be at hand here, folks, as about 52% of all the bets placed upon the spread have favored the birds, though a clear majority (70%) of all the money wagered has followed suit. When they last encountered each other at Doak Campbell Stadium, the visitors trailed 31-0 at halftime en route to a 44-14 defeat (+18). With that being said, they very nearly knocked off the Seminoles in last September’s 31-29 affair, in which the aforementioned Castellanos made a name for himself with 305 passing yards and another ninety-five yards of the rushing variety. The hosts trailed by twenty-one points early in the third period, only to rally back to cut the deficit to two points, but a pair of unsuccessful two-point conversions ultimately sealed their fate. On the injury front, BC will be without the services of (Junior Tailback) Alex Broome this season as he is recovering from a torn ACL suffered towards the end of Spring Camp. He rushed for 288 yards and a touchdown on sixty carries last year and was expected to play a larger role in the Offense under O’Brien. Instead, look for (Kansas State transfer) Treshaun Ward to be RB1 after rushing for 643 yards and five scores in Manhattan last season. Looking ahead, the Eagles will return to Chestnut Hill for their home opener against Duquesne next weekend, before hitting the road for what figures to be a very tough draw against (No. 11) Missouri.
Meanwhile, after brooding all Summer over how they were robbed by the CFP Selection Committe, it would be hard to fathom a worse start to the current campaign for Florida State (0-1, 0-1 in ACC), whose trip to Dublin last weekend was NOT an enjoyable one. A year ago, the Seminoles completed an undefeated regular season culminating in their first ACC Championship in nearly a decade, though were nonetheless excluded from the Playoff in favor of teams sporting one loss. Granted, the fact that (Head Coach) Mike Norvell & Co were down to a third-string Quarterback certainly influenced these events, but one can’t help by empathize with the plight of a team that had been so good. From there, the school became embroiled in an ugly legal battle with the Atlantic Coast Conference, who have demanded a sum of $570 million to leave the league that they’ve called home since 1992, believing that a move to the SEC would bring greater funds and a clearer pathway to the Playoff. With that being said, the ‘Noles had an opportunity to finally get back to simply playing football, what with plenty of new faces as ten of their number were selected in last Spring’s NFL Draft. Norvell hit the portal hard, with a slew of the incoming talents led by (Senior Quarterback) D.J. Uiagalelei, making his debut for his third different school in five seasons (he previously plied his trade at Clemson and Oregon State). Unfortunately, the opener in Dublin didn’t go according to plan, for after marching downfield to take an 8-0 lead on their first possession, the Offense stalled over and over again while the Defense struggled to get off the field against a punishing Georgia Tech attack. Disjointed would best describe Uiagalelei’s (pictured below) debut for FSU, as he completed 19-of-27 passes for just 193 yards. As a team, the Seminoles could muster only 291 total yards on twenty first downs, rushing for ninety-eight yards on thirty-one carries, while shipping 336 yards, 190 of which coming via the run. Trailing 14-21 for much of the second half, Norvell’s troops finally tied the score following a 15-play drive late in the fourth period that bled over eight minutes off the clock, though they could not get the ball back afterward, as the Yellow Jackets eventually drilled a 44-yard field goal as time expired to pull the upset. Now, the question begs: where does Florida State go from here? Suffering one loss is by no means a disqualifier for the Playoff, particularly after the field has been expanded to twelve teams, but you can’t help but feel their dismay given the ACC’s standing in comparison to greater conference’s such as the SEC and Big Ten. Simply put, if they wish to get revenge for last year’s indignity, then the Seminoles cannot afford to lose again, certainly not in league play with the likes of Clemson and Miami waiting before non-conference dates with (at) Notre Dame and Florida.
From a betting perspective, Florida State has now lost each of their last two games dating back to their 3-63 drubbing at the hands of Georgia in January’s Orange Bowl, while covering the spread in just two of their last seven outings overall. Since arriving in Tallahassee, Norvell is 31-18 (.632) straight-up, but a middling 24-24-1 against the spread, including 8-11 in that regard as a home favorite, and 17-17 versus ACC competition. Furthermore, being a big favorite hasn’t been kind to them at all, as the Seminoles have failed to cover each of their last four games when favored by more than 10.5 points, which is the case tonight at Doak Campbell Stadium. Looking at tonight’s matchup, FSU owns a 15-5 all-time lead in the series against Boston College, covering six of the last eight meetings, though that wasn’t the case in last Fall’s narrow 31-29 victory in Chestnut Hill. Favored by 26.5 points, the visitors nearly wasted a 31-10 lead after scoring back-to-back touchdowns early in the second half. The Eagles ended the afternoon scoring NINETEEN unanswered points, aided by a 19-yard fumble return to the house, though it wouldn’t be enough to overcome the Seminoles. This wasn’t a strong performance for the defense by any means, as they shipped 457 total yards, including a whopping 400 to the aforementioned Castellanos, who gave them fits throughout the affair. With that in mind, it appears that the public clearly recalls this particular contest, as roughly 44% of all bets placed upon the spread have sided with FSU, while approximately 27% of all the money changing hands has followed suit to Tallahassee. On the injury front, (Sophomore Wideout) Hykeem Williams will be out of action for another week due to an undisclosed injury, limiting the depth of a young Receiving Corps that has undergone a lot of change from last season. Looking ahead, the Seminoles will enjoy what could turn out to be a sorely needed bye week (if they happen to suffer another defeat), before hosting Memphis and California in the latter’s official welcome to the ACC.