8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Chiefs -3, Total: 46.5
The NFL has returned as the 2024 Regular Season kicks off with a rematch of last January’s AFC Championship Game, as the (two-time reigning Super Bowl Champion) Kansas City Chiefs begin their search for an unprecedented THIRD consecutive Lombardi Trophy, as they welcome the Baltimore Ravens, who have nothing but sweet revenge on their minds. Indeed, it was a bitter end for the Ravens, who after completing a dominant finish to the regular season in which they matched a franchise record with fourteen victories keyed by the exploits of (2023 MVP) Lamar Jackson and the top-ranked defense in the league, met an inglorious end in a listless 10-17 loss at home to the Chiefs in the Conference Championship. Baltimore had won SEVEN straight games (in which they played their starters) coming into that affair, with the Offense reaching new heights thanks to the playcalling of (new OC) Todd Monken, and an opportunistic Defense forcing a staggering SIXTEEN turnovers. Seriously, (Head Coach) John Harbaugh’s troops were manhandling their opponents, wiping the floor with a slew of playoff teams including the 49ers and Dolphins by a combined FIFTY-ONE points in successive weeks. However, all of that good will was thrown out the window against Kansas City, who shut down the blackbirds’ vaunted rushing attack to the tune of eighty-one yards on a scant sixteen carries. It was truly odd to see a unit that led the NFL in both rushing attempts (31.8) and yards (156.5) change their approach so abruptly, which played right into the hands of the visitors, who consistently kept them in third-and-long throughout the afternoon, forcing three turnovers along the way. It was definitely a hard day at the office for Jackson, who struggled mightily to find a rhythm, completing 20-of-37 passes for 272 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while also rushing for another fifty-four yards and losing a fumble. The two-time MVP was subject to intense pressure as well, taking four sacks, seven hits, and ten total pressures. So, what has changed for the Ravens since then, you ask? Well, (former Defensive Coordinator) Mike Macdonald is off to Seattle to become their new head coach, and has thus been replaced by Zach Orr, who spent the last two seasons coaching Inside Linebackers. A new face has also arrived in the Backfield, where (two-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry looks to extend his stellar career, leaving the Titans after eight years of service. It will be interesting to see what Henry (pictured below) has left in the tank at the age of thirty, having led the league in carries four times over the past five years. Harbaugh has largely utilized a committee approach in the Backfield, though the four-time Pro-Bowler will see the bulk of the carries; Henry rushed for 1,167 yards and twelve touchdowns in 2023, despite his 280 carries being his fewest in a campaign in which he played at least fifteen games. While he and Jackson will likely keep opponents up at night, there is the question of a largely rebuilt Offensive Line, which will feature THREE new starters, including the entire right ride of the quintet. The franchise will be counting on many young Linemen, such as (rookies) Andrew Vorhees and Roger Rosengarten to come of age quickly. Harbaugh deployed his starting line throughout the preseason, which is a sign that they need to get proper game reps as they get set to open the schedule against a team that controlled the line of scrimmage in their previous matchup.
From a betting perspective, the Ravens were 12-7 against the spread last season, equating to a net profit of 3.91 units. One of the most consistent teams in the league last Fall, Baltimore went the entire campaign without failing to cover back-to-back games. Furthermore, they really made their money on the road, where they have covered eight of their last ten outings away from M&T Bank Stadium, while replicating that mark in their past ten affairs as an underdog. It should also be noted that the blackbirds are typically reliable in their season openers, as Harbaugh & Co are 7-1 versus the spread in their last eight week one contests. Looking at this particular matchup, the public is favoring the Ravens, as roughly 77% of all bets placed upon the spread reside with Baltimore, though a more even distribution of the total money being wagered can be found with approximately 53% following suit. They have won only once in their last six meetings with the Chiefs, though have covered half of them. However, these birds are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Arrowhead, while covering THREE consecutive encounters in which they have been receiving points from the oddsmakers. Over the course of his career, Jackson has crossed paths with Kansas City on five occasions, winning just once; the three-time Pro-Bowler has completed just 55.6% of his throws for an average of 204.4 yards on 5.89 net tards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while rushing for another 71.4 yards per game, three more scores and as many lost fumbles. Henry, on the other hand has enjoyed much more success against them, rushing for 112.0 yards per contest on a healthy 5.6 yards per carry with eight touchdowns. On the injury front, a number of players are listed as questionable coming into this opener, including (Center) Tyler Linderbaum, (Pro-Bowl Tight End) Mark Andrews, and (All-Pro Safety) Kyle Hamilton, with the latter dealing with a sore hip. Hamilton erupted in his second season with the team, logging eighty-one tackles, ten tackles for loss, a forced fumble, four interceptions, thirteen defended passes, and a touchdown return. Looking ahead, the Ravens will be returning to M&T Bank Stadium next Sunday for their home opener against the Raiders, before embarking on a three-game gauntlet at the Cowboys, versus the Bills, and at the Bengals.
Meanwhile, the more things change the more they appear to stay the same, as the Chiefs open yet another campaign looking to defend a Lombardi Trophy. Last February, Kansas City bested San Francisco in a thrilling overtime affair to earn their THIRD Super Bowl Title in five years, and now have designs on something that hasn’t been done in the Super Bowl era: win THREE consecutive championships. What made this recent triumph so remarkable is that last year’s team wasn’t anywhere close to their best, certainly in comparison to the 2019 and 2022 incarnations that went on to claim Super Bowl glory. No, that particular group was one in transition, as (Head Coach) Andy Reid and (General Manager) Brett Veach managed to thread the needle in turning over various positions of the roster (including the Receiving Corps and Offensive Line), while catching fire down the stretch to finish with an eighth straight AFC West crown, before knocking off the Dolphins, Bills, Ravens, and Niners in the postseason despite being an underdog in each of latter three contests. Hell, they even finished with one of the worst turnover differentials in the league (-11), which is such an outlier in comparison to other Super Bowl Champions. Of course, it certainly helps having a Quarterback like Patrick Mahomes at the helm, for the two-time MVP is capable of covering up a lot of weaknesses. After winning his second MVP in 2022, Mahomes (pictured below) wasn’t as statistically dominant last Fall, throwing for 4,183 yards, twenty-seven touchdowns, and fourteen interceptions, but he was nonetheless essential to their success. The 28-year-old was forced to manage games in a different manner than ever before, what with a young O-Line and a platoon of pass-catchers that were plagued by drops. That shouldn’t be the case this season, as Reid and Veach have gone out of their way to bolster his supporting cast, adding vertical threats in the form of (former Raven and Cardinal) Marquis “Hollywood” Brown and (Rookie Wideout) Xavier Worthy, while recently bringing back (veteran Receiver) JuJu Smith-Schuster, who led the Receiving Corps in catches (78) and yards (933) during their championship run of 2022. Coupled with (Sophomore Wideout) Rashee Rice, who hauled in seventy-nine receptions for 938 yards and seven touchdowns and the ageless (perennial All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce and Mahomes very well have the most dynamic group that he’s thrown to since he burst onto the scene back in 2018. With all this talk of Offense, it should be noted that the Defense played a MAJOR role in the Chiefs’ success last season, with (longtime Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo continuing to fine tune a unit that has become one of the best in the NFL. Kansas City ranked second in both points allowed (17.3) and total defense (289.7), tenth on third down (37.1%), and eighth in the red zone (50.0%). This Fall, they’ll need to replace (veteran Cornerback) L’Jarius Sneed and (playmaking Linebacker) Willie Gay Jr, but as we have seen in recent years, this franchise has done a tremendous job of drafting and developing talent to take over when needed.
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs finished the previous campaign with a 13-7-1 record against the spread, equating to a net profit of 4.82 units. It was certainly an interesting season for a team that began the schedule with a 7-4 mark on that front, only to fail to cover each of their next four outings. Thankfully, Reid’s troops righted the ship with SIX consecutive covers, four of which coming as an underdog. Tonight however, they are favored by the oddsmakers, which hasn’t been the most rewarding spot for them of late, with a 4-5-1 record versus the spread over their last ten contests in which they’ve laid points. Looking at this particular matchup, the public appears to be fading Kansas City, with approximately 24% of all bets wagered on the spread residing with the team clad in red, while roughly 36% of all the money wagered thus far following suit. The reigning champs are 5-1 in their last six encounters with Baltimore, though are square at 3-3 ATS, including 0-2 in that regard in the last two games featured at Arrowhead. In fact, the underdog has covered each of the last FIVE meetings, which includes all of them that Mahomes has participated in. Speaking of Mahomes, in five career meetings has completed an efficient 72.7% of his passes for an average of 344.0 yards on a healthy 8.26 net yards per attempt, with thirteen touchdowns opposed to just two interceptions, while rushing for another score to boot. He was nothing short of surgical in that aforementioned 17-10 AFC Championship victory, connecting on 30-of-39 throws for 249 yards and a touchdown. On the injury front, Brown suffered shoulder injury during training camp and will likely miss the first four-to-six games, while the likes of (All-Pro Defensive Tackle) Chris Jones and (Offensive Linemen) Wanya Morris and Jawaan Taylor are listed as questionable due to various maladies. As for Rice, the young Wideout has been waiting for the hammer to drop from the NFL due to a high speed hit-and-run that took place in Dallas back in late March. However, with his court date not occurring until December, it appears that he will be avoiding league justice and thus be available tonight’s opener. Looking ahead, the Chiefs will host the Bengals in a rematch of the 2021 and 2022 AFC Championship Games, before hitting the road to battle the Falcons and Chargers.