8:15 PM EST, Peacock – Spread: Eagles -3, Total: 48.5
The NFL continues its opening weekend with a first-ever trip to Sao Paulo, Brazil, as the upstart Green Bay Packers and the vengeful Philadelphia Eagles kick off their respective campaigns in a battle of NFC contenders. In sports, it is always rewarding to see a young team “figure it out”, which is what happened to the Packers around Mid-November. In their first season following the departure of (longtime Quarterback) Aaron Rodgers, it was expected to be a down year in Green Bay, as (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur went about renovating his roster to accommodate the loss of an individual who had dominated the franchise for nearly two decades. Indeed, it was a slow start for the cheeseheads, who lost six of their first nine games, including four in a row between weeks four and eight. However, the proverbial light bulb turned on with a narrow 23-20 win over the Chargers, followed by an eye-opening 29-22 upset of the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, which sparked a 6-2 run that propelled them into the playoffs. Not satisfied with simply advancing to the postseason, the pack did everything they could to create chaos, embarrassing the Cowboys in a 48-32 shellacking at AT&T Stadium before very nearly eliminating the top-seeded 49ers a week later. LaFleur’s troops led throughout the affair until San Francisco finally pulled ahead inside of the final two-minute warning, ending their surprising run while simultaneously serving as a look at things to come. So, how did the Packers do it, you ask? Well, it certainly helped that Jordan Love grew into the role of replacing Rodgers after spending the previous three seasons sitting behind the four-time MVP. Needless to say, Love (pictured below) did not disappoint, completing 64.2% of his throws for 4,159 yards on 6.43 net yards per attempt, with thirty-two touchdowns opposed to eleven interceptions, while putting his legs to good use with another 247 rushing yards and four more scores. The franchise was so happy with his growth that they signed him to the richest contract in NFL history (per average salary), worth $220 million over four years, clocking in at an average of $55 million per season. Coinciding with his growth was that of a young Receiving Corps that now appears to be arguably the deepest in the league; Green Bay had six different pass-catchers log over 350 receiving yards, including (young Wideouts) Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs hauling in eight touchdowns apiece. If (third-year Receiver) Christian Watson can avoid the nagging hamstring injury that relegated him to just nine games last Fall and rediscover his breakout form as rookie, then this unit could become one of the most formidable in the NFL, particularly given their youth and potential as every member is aged twenty-five years or younger. It’s clear that LaFleur and (General Manager) Brian Gutekunst sees an opportunity to get further ahead of the curve, which is why they added further reinforcements in the form of (two-time Pro-Bowler) Josh Jacobs, who they signed as a free agent to a four-year, $48 million contract. A year after leading the league with 1,653 rushing yards, Jacobs never looked quite right after holding out through training camp and the preseason, while going on to struggle within a disappointing Raiders’ attack, as his yards per carry fell from a robust 4.9 to a career-low 3.5. Green Bay is banking on the 26-year-old returning to form with a change of scenery and a better supporting cast around him. Keep in mind that LaFleur and Gutekunst were so bullish on Jacobs that they opted to place (longtime Tailback) A.J. Dillon on injured reserve last week due to neck malady, just five months after parting ways with former Pro-Bowler Aaron Jones.
From a betting perspective, the Packers went 11-8 against the spread last season, finishing their postseason run with four consecutive covers, all but one of which coming as an underdog. In fact, Green Bay absolutely THRIVED in this role, with NINE of their covers coming when receiving points from the oddsmakers (9-5 ATS). Hell, LaFleur’s charges were only favored five times last year, though we don’t expect that to be the case in 2024. Looking at this particular contest, the cheeseheads have managed to clip the Eagles’ wings in six of their last ten meetings, covering as many of them along the way. The public are all over the Packers as roughly 74% of all bets placed up the spread are taking said points, though only about 37% of all the money that has changed hands has followed suit, which could prove to be telling. When they last met two years ago, it was a Sunday night affair in Philadelphia in which the aforementioned Love received the first prolonged action of his professional career as the incumbent Rodgers succumbed to injury midway in the game. Despite trailing throughout the contest, Love handled himself well in completing 6-of-9 passes for 113 yards and a stunning 63-yard touchdown strike to Watson, who reeled in four catches for 110 yards on the night, to cut the deficit to seven points midway through the fourth quarter. However, that would be about it for the visitors, who after trading field goals, couldn’t regain possession before time expired. On the injury front, in addition to the long-term absence of Dillon, Green Bay could be without the services of (Offensive Linemen) Andre Dillard (shoulder) and Jordan Morgan (shoulder), along with (Sophomore Tight End) Tucker Kraft, who is nursing a tender pectoral muscle, with all three players listed as questionable. As for (Rookie Tailback) MarShawn Lloyd, who is expected to feature as Jacobs primary alternative, he is also in doubt of making his professional debut due to a lingering hamstring issue dating back to Training Camp. Looking ahead, the Packers return to Lambeau Field next weekend for their home opener against the Colts, before facing off against another AFC South opponent with a trip to Tennessee to follow.
Meanwhile, as their opponent tonight continued to get better as the season progressed, the Eagles were traveling in the opposite direction as their 2023 campaign ended in disappointment and confusion. After narrowly meeting defeat in Super Bowl LVII, Philadelphia got off to a strong start the following Fall, winning ten of their first eleven games en route to owning the best record in the league entering December. However, their flaws slowly became more apparent with each passing week, as an inconsistent passing game and a deteriorating pass defense led to a stunning 1-5 finish, which culminated in an ugly 9-32 drubbing at Tampa Bay on Wild Card Weekend. So, what in the name of Randall Cunningham happened to these birds, you ask? Well, much of the blame can be laid at the feet of (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni, who clearly fumbled the succession of (Offensive and Defensive Coordinators) Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon, who went on to become the leading men for the Colts and Cardinals respectively. Needless to say, (OC) Brian Johnson and (DC) Sean Desai struggled in their roles, with the former presiding over an attack that had enjoyed a +8-turnover differential under his predecessor decline to a nauseating -10 last year, while the latter was eventually relieved of his duties altogether in December thanks to a porous Secondary that went from being ranked no. one overall in passing yards allowed (179.8) and net yards per attempt (4.9) to next-to-last in aerial yards relinquished (252.7). There have also been reports coming out of the City of Brotherly Love that the relationship with Sirianni and his (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Jalen Hurts had grown sour as well. Runner-up to MVP in 2022, Hurts (pictured below) wasn’t nearly as efficient passing the football last Fall, throwing NINE more interceptions (a career-high 15), while finding himself under far more pressure than he did during the previous campaign. Consider this: the 26-year-old was hurried thirty-nine times and pressured on ninety-nine occasions during that magical run to Super Bowl LVII, while last season saw both figures increase greatly as he was hurried fifty-nine times and pressured on 124 occasions. In an attempt to fix things, Sirianni swung for the fences when he was hiring his assistants, acquiring the services of Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio to fill the playcalling void on each side of the football. Moore, who had previously spent five seasons with (arch-rival) Dallas before calling plays for the Chargers last Fall, crafted some very prolific attacks with the Cowboys, finishing the 2021 campaign ranked first in total yards and points. He’ll have to deal with loss of (longtime Center) Jason Kelce retired after thirteen years with the franchise, but the addition of (former Pro-Bowler) Saquon Barkley should bring even more firepower to the attack. As for Fangio, the venerable tactician has built strong defenses throughout his twenty-three years as a coordinator, having most recently presided over the Dolphins’ tenth-ranked unit. With one of the most talented defensive fronts in the NFL at his disposal, it will be interesting to see Fangio cook in Philadelphia, though it will be necessary that young Defensive Backs such as (Rookies) Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, drafted twenty-second and fortieth overall last Spring, hit the ground running.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles were 7-2-2 against the spread during that aforementioned 10-1 start, but they were easily the least-profitable team in the NFL after that point, failing to cover their final SEVEN outings, including the playoff loss at the Buccaneers. It has been a fairly miserable run for those betting on these birds, particularly when they have been laying points to the opposition; Philadelphia is 0-5-1 versus the spread in their last six games as a favorite, while going 3-6-1 in that regard in their past ten such outings. With that being said, this is a team that has generally started strong under Sirianni’s watch, for in their last five games in the month of September, they are 4-0-1 ATS, which may serve to lift the spirits of bettors. Looking at this particular matchup tonight, only about 26% of all bets placed upon the spread are flying with the Eagles, though the percentage of money tells a different story, with approximately 61% of all money wagered on this front is favoring the birds. Philly is 4-6 ATS in their last ten encounters with Green Bay, though 6-4 in their past ten meetings as a favorite. Hurts is 1-1 all-time versus the cheeseheads, though unbeaten as the starter. In fact, a 16-30 loss at Lambeau Field saw him supplant Carson Wentz as the starter moving forward back in 2020, as he went on to complete 5-of-12 passes for 109 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while rushing for twenty-nine yards on five carries. In that aforementioned 40-33 victory at Lincoln Financial Field, he tormented the Packers’ defense, amassing 310 total yards, including 157 via the run and two passing scores, one of which went to (Pro-Bowl Wideout) A.J. Brown. On the injury front, that troubled Secondary figures to be shorthanded as (veteran Cornerback) James Bradberry is expected to be sidelined until Mid-October due to a lower leg malady, while (former Pro-Bowl Linebacker) Devin White missed the trip to Sau Paulo thanks to a tender ankle. Additionally, (veteran Tight End) Dallas Goedert is listed as questionable with an ailing oblique muscle. Looking ahead, the Eagles return to Philly for a battle of the birds as they host the Falcons, before hitting the road for back-to-back dates with the Saints and Buccaneers, that latter contest serving as a rematch of last January’s fateful Wild Card debacle.