12:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Texas -7.5, Total: 42.5
Week Two kicks off with a bang, folks, as a pair of playoff participants clash at the Big House, as the (No. 3) Texas Longhorns and the (No. 10) Michigan Wolverines meet on the gridiron for only the second time in their long, storied histories. One of the most common narratives when it comes to classic college powerhouses, particularly those who create some buzz for themselves after lying dormant for a period of time, is if they are back. Well, ladies and gentlemen, we believe that it is finally safe to say that Texas (1-0, 0-0 in SEC) is officially BACK. In three short seasons, (Head Coach) Steve Sarkisian has guided the Longhorns to five wins, then eight victories, and most recently twelve, resulting in their first Big XII Championship since 2009 and a trip to the playoff, which was also a first for the program. Indeed, it appears that the school couldn’t have plotted things out any better. After all, they hired Sarkisian, who at the time was plying his trade as Alabama’s award-winning Offensive Coordinator, with designs on rebuilding the ‘Horns into a program that could not only compete in the SEC (where they now call home), but for national championships as well. Coach Sark has done a masterful job of recruiting and tapping into the Transfer Portal, where the school’s deep pockets have afforded them plenty of flexibility to maneuver on the NIL front. After leading a veteran-laden team to the National Semifinal, where they fell just short to Washington, the 50-year-old once again has a very experienced team returning to Austin, consisting of FIFTEEN starters from last year’s squad, including the bulk of the Offensive Line, the majority of the Defense, and most notably (Junior Quarterback) Quinn Ewers. Simply put, 2023 was a magical campaign for the Ohio State transfer, who completed an efficient 69.0% of his throws for 3,479 yards on 8.8 yards per attempt, twenty-two touchdowns and six interceptions, while rushing for five more scores to boot. The coaching staff is so confident in his ability to command the attack that Ewers (pictured below) has quelled any discourse of handing the reins over to (prized recruit) Arch Manning. Case in point: the experienced trigger man was as advertised in last weekend 52-0 blowout of Colorado State in the opener from Darryl K Royal Stadium, needing only three quarters of action to rack up 260 yards and three touchdowns on 20-of-27 passing. Granted, Manning came in and handled himself well with ninety-five yards and a score of his own in mop-up duty, but if there was one takeaway to be had from Saturday’s shutout, it is that this is Ewers’ team through and through. The hosts eviscerated the Rams to the tune of 545 total yards on twenty-six first downs, including 190 of the rushing variety on forty-one carries, with the Backfield tandem of (Tailbacks) Jayden Blue and his highly touted sidekick, Jerrick Gibson accounting for 124 yards on a mighty healthy 5.9 yards per carry. Defensively, Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit held CSU to a mere 192 total yards, including a scant seventy-four through the air and a pair of interceptions.
From a betting perspective, Texas is perfect both straight-up and against the spread after one week of action, easily covering the line (-35) in that aforementioned blowout of Colorado State. The Longhorns may be 5-5 ATS over their last ten games overall, but they happen to have covered all but one of their last five outings dating back to last season. Under Sarkisian’s leadership, this is a program that is 21-19 versus the spread since his arrival in 2021, including 5-5 as a road favorite, and 6-5 against non-conference competition. With that being said, the Big Ten has been a different issue altogether for the ‘Horns, who have failed to cover FIVE consecutive encounters with denizens from that particular league. Looking at this particular matchup, the public thinks the Horns will indeed hook the Wolverines, with roughly 80% of all bets placed upon this afternoon’s spread wearing burnt orange, while approximately 70% of all money wagered following suit. Of course, the faithful down in Austin will have fond memories of their only ever meeting with Michigan; twenty years ago, Texas proved victorious in an utterly thrilling Rose Bowl, a 38-37 affair that featured four lead changes, 796 total yards of offense, and NINE touchdowns. This affair was made famous by the exploits of (former Quarterback) Vince Young, who turned in a performance for the ages, amassing 372 total yards and five touchdowns, including a staggering 192 yards and FOUR scores on the ground, one of which was a 60-yard dash into the end zone. That triumph proved to be essential to the program’s success moving forward, capping off an 11-1 campaign and serving as the catalyst towards claiming their first National Championship since 1970 a year later. In this, their first true road venture of the season, it should be noted that the Longhorns have won each of their past seven such contests (5-2 ATS), including that stunning 34-24 upset of (No. 3) Alabama in Tuscaloosa nearly a year ago to the day. Coach Sark’s outfit rolled up 454 total yards on the Crimson Tide, featuring a sublime Ewers who completed 24-of-38 passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns. Looking ahead, Texas will return to Austin for three consecutive home games against the likes of UTSA, Louisiana-Monroe, and their SEC debut versus Mississippi State followed by a well-placed bye week before renewing hostilities with (No. 15) Oklahoma in the latest installment of the Red River Rivalry.
Meanwhile, for the first time since enjoying a share of the 1997 National Championship, Michigan (1-0, 0-0 in Big Ten) enters a campaign with that distinction, though this time they are the undisputed holders of said crown. Indeed, last season was the culmination of many years of building in Ann Arbor, as the Wolverines vanquished their eternal rivals Ohio State for a third straight year en route to claiming their third consecutive Big Ten Title, advancing to the playoff in as many years. After meeting defeat in the previous two National Semifinals, the maize & blue outlasted Alabama in a 27-20 overtime thriller before battering Washington in a 34-13 coronation, bringing the program their TENTH National Championship. However, a lot has changed in Ann Arbor since the confetti fell from the rafters at NRG Stadium, as you may be hard-pressed to recognize this current incarnation of the Wolverines. First and foremost, (longtime Head Coach) Jim Harbaugh finally left his alma mater, becoming the Los Angeles Chargers’ leading man a few weeks after that triumph, ending a successful tenure in which Michigan returned to prominence with a stellar 89-25 (.781) record over the course of nine seasons. Replacing him is the man who did so on an interim basis three times last Fall, as Sherrone Moore takes over the program after spending the previous six years working his way up the coaching staff. Co-Offensive Coordinator and Offensive Line Coach from 2021 to 2022, Moore took over lone playcalling duties last season, directing a unit that averaged 35.9 points per game (14th in FBS) on 382.7 total yards, including 169.1 on the ground where they oftentimes bludgeoned opponents into submission. He showed glimpses of his ability to motivate and lead the team with three victories in place of a suspended Harbaugh to close the regular season, including a 30-24 triumph over the (No. 2) Buckeyes to book their trip to the conference championship game. With that being said, we will now see what kind of builder he can be, for there is A LOT of work to be done in terms of replenishing a roster that lost FIFTEEN starters, including THIRTEEN that were selected in last Spring’s NFL Draft. Seriously, folks, Michigan has just TWO returning starters on the offensive side of the football, with the likes of J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum, Roman Wilson, and Zak Zinter all plying the trade on Sundays from now on. As such, all eyes were on how this unit would perform in last weekend’s 30-10 opener against Fresno State, with the results looking much to be desired. The hosts could muster just 269 total yards of offense, with only three field goals to hold them over between their opening drive (which ended in a touchdown) and the latter stages of the fourth quarter, where (former walk-on) Davis Warren tossed an 18-yard score to (Junior Tight End) Colston Loveland to stretch a tenuous lead from six points to thirteen. Thankfully, a Defense that is still well-stocked with talent and experience, stepped in to kill the game off, as (Junior Cornerback) Will Johnson (pictured below) intercepted the Bulldogs’ Mikey Keene and returned it eighty-six yards to the house, to relief of the assembled faithful at the Big House. Warren finished the affair with 118 yards, that score and an interception on 15-of-25 passes, while his backup, (fellow Junior) Alex Orji found (Senior Tailback) Donovan Edwards for a short touchdown on the opening possession of the game. Edwards could only muster twenty-seven yards on eleven carries behind a completely rebuilt O-Line, while Loveland accounted for all but thirty-four of his team’s yards through the air. Needless to say, this group will need to show a lot more growth if they are to pose problems for the Longhorns this afternoon.
From a betting perspective, Michigan may have won their opening weekend matchup against Fresno State, but the bettors don’t want to hear any of that trivial nonsense as they failed to cover the affair by TWO points. Indeed, the Wolverines opened their title reign as 21-point favorites at home, but came up just shy of enjoying what would have been their fifth consecutive cover dating back to last season. With Moore leading the charge in place of a suspended Harbaugh last Fall, his troops were undefeated straight-up despite splitting those fixtures versus the spread. Dating back to 2023, the maize & blue are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games overall, 4-5-1 over their past ten games at the Big House, while owning a 4-6 mark versus non-conference opponents. In fact, this the program’s first regular season non-conference encounter with a Power-4 opponent in three years, with that most recent instance coming against (newly minted Big Ten resident) Washington, a 31-10 drubbing at Michigan Stadium. Furthermore, this is a program that turned the corner against ranked opposition, riding a streak of five straight covers in that regard. However, today’s showdown in Ann Arbor will see them in a rare spot, folks, as the Wolverines opened as underdogs in their own home. Needless to say, this was a rarity under the Harbaugh administration, which featured only THREE such affairs dating back to 2019, two of which coming against Ohio State teams ranked second on both occasions, resulting in a mark of 1-2 ATS. Looking deeper into this particular contest, the public doesn’t have much faith in the reigning National Champions, as roughly 18% of all bets placed upon the spread favor Moore & Co, while approximately 28% of all the money wagered thus far has followed suit. As we stated earlier, this is only the second all-time meeting between these bluebloods, with that memorable 38-37 Rose Bowl epic serving as the lone predecessor. On the injury front, (Senior Safety) Rod Moore will miss most of this season after tearing his ACL towards the end of the previous campaign, while the new-look Receiving Corps could be without the services of (Sophomore Wideout) Joe Taylor due to an undisclosed issue and is thus listed as questionable. Looking ahead, Michigan will remain in Ann Arbor for the next three weeks as they host Arkansas State for Homecoming, before kicking off conference play against another newly minted Big Ten side, (No. 13) USC followed by a visit from Minnesota.