8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Lions -3.5, Total: 50.5
The first Sunday of the 2024 NFL regular season comes to a close with yet another playoff rematch, as the Detroit Lions once again play host to the Los Angeles Rams from Ford Field, the sight of their thrilling Wild Card affair from last January. In many ways, last season served as a renaissance for the Rams, who bounced back after turning in one of the most disappointing championship defenses in league history. After securing the franchise’s second Lombardi Trophy (and first since returning to the City of Angels), Los Angeles stumbled to a miserable 5-12 finish as a swath of injuries ravaged the roster, sidelining a plethora of talented playmakers. As a result, nobody really knew what to expect from (Head Coach) Sean McVay’s troops last Fall, which suited them just fine; the team overcame a slow 3-6 start to win seven of their final eight games following the bye week, qualifying for the playoffs where they met their demise at the hands of Detroit, who narrowly evaded a late rally in that 24-23 thriller (more on this one, later). So, how did McVay & Co manage such a turnaround, you ask? Well, it is awfully ironic that after years of cashing in their draft picks as if they were trading cards, McVay and (General Manager) Les Snead rebuilt the roster the old-fashioned way: drafting and developing talent. Simply put, a slew of rookies made an impact for the Rams last season, with (Center) Steve Avila, (Linebacker) Byron Young, and (Defensive Tackle) Kobie Turner all starting right away, while (unheralded Wideout) Puka Nacua emerged as a revelation with a staggering 105 receptions (an NFL record for a rookie), 1,486 yards, and six touchdowns. Furthermore, (Sophomore Tailback) Kyren Williams came on like gangbusters after the bye, rushing for 688 of his 1,144 yards from week twelve to week seventeen, a stretch in which Los Angeles went 5-1. It seemed that this emergence of youth really benefitted the likes of (veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford and (2021 Receiving Champion) Cooper Kupp after a season in which both stars were decimated due to injury. Stafford responded with only his second ever Pro-Bowl campaign, completing 62.6% of his throws for 3,965 yards on 6.82 net yards per attempt, twenty-four touchdowns and eleven interceptions. As for Kupp (pictured below with Nacua), he turned in fifty-nine receptions for 737 yards and five scores after missing the first four games due to a lingering hamstring strain. Coming into this season, the plan is for the young guys to continue to develop while also keeping the veterans youthful and energetic. With that being said, there have been some significant departures that McVay must tend to. First and foremost, (three-time Defensive Player of the Year) Aaron Donald retired leaving in his wake a massive hole in the middle of the defense. Second, (Defensive Coordinator) Raheem Morris left Los Angeles to be the leading man for the Falcons, depriving that unit of yet another influential figure. Granted, McVay is certainly no stranger to replacing assistant coaches, but the void left by Donald’s exodus can’t be as easily filled. Even at 32-years-old he managed to remain a disruptive force in the trenches with eight sacks, sixteen tackles for loss, twenty-three QB hits, and thirty-one pressures. (New Defensive Coordinator) Chris Shula, who was promoted from Linebackers/Pass-Rush Coach, will be counting upon the duo of Young and Turner, who combined for seventeen sacks and sixteen tackles for loss, along with a pair of Defensive Linemen from Florida State, Jared Verse and Braden Fiske, who were selected in the first and second rounds of last Spring’s NFL Draft, to raise hell following Donald’s departure.
From a betting perspective, the Rams were a stellar 11-6-1 against the spread last season, covering seven of their final eight games, including that narrow loss at Ford Field in which they were 3.5-point underdogs. On the whole of the campaign, Los Angeles was 5-3-1 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, while also proving to be road warriors to boot, with SEVEN covers in their last ten trips away from SoFi Field. Furthermore, the month of September has been rather kind to McVay’s charges, who are 3-1-1 versus the spread in their past five tilts during the opening month of the campaign, including a 2-0-1 run last Fall. Looking at this particular matchup, roughly 67% of all bets placed upon the spread are taking the points, while a nearly equivalent percentage (65%) of all money changing hands has followed suit to Southern California. Interestingly, the home team has won eight of the last ten meetings, though it should be noted that Los Angeles was the only side that managed to win on the other’s turf, doing so twice, while the underdog is 6-4 ATS during that stretch. Of course, their most recent encounter continued this trend; after falling behind 14-3, the visitors slowly chipped away at the deficit, as Stafford connected with Nacua and (fellow Receiver) TuTu Atwell for a pair of long touchdowns, while back-to-back field goals pulled them within a single point midway through the fourth quarter. However, the Rams could draw no closer as their final drive fell short at the host’s 44-yard line, with the defense unable to get the ball back on the ensuing possession. In his first game back in the city that he had called home for the first twelve years of his career, Stafford completed 25-of-36 passes for 367 yards and those two scores, while Nacua erupted for 181 yards and a 50-yard touchdown on eight catches. Tonight’s return to Detroit marks the third time that Stafford has competed against the franchise that drafted him first overall back in 2009, with the only other meeting being a 28-19 victory in Los Angeles where he torched his former employers for 334 yards and three touchdowns. On the injury front, we’ve known that Nacua has been dealing with an ailing knee since the middle of training camp and has been held out of action ever since as a precaution. Joining him on the list of questionable to participate are (Offensive Linemen) Rob Havenstein (ankle) and Jonah Jackson (shoulder), the latter a free agent addition from the Lions, while Alaric Jackson (suspension) and (Tight End) Tyler Higbee (knee) will miss at least the first four games of the schedule. Looking ahead, the Rams face three of their first four games on the road, as they travel to the desert to battle the Cardinals next weekend, before hosting the (reigning NFC Champion) 49ers afterward.
Meanwhile, the Lions have finally gone from the eternal hunters to being the hunted after winning their first NFC North crown since 1993. Indeed, decades largely marred by futility, ineptitude, and mediocrity were flushed down the toilet as Detroit plowed their way to a 12-5 finish, their highest win total since 1991. Furthermore, (Head Coach) Dan Campbell & Co managed to not only win their first playoff game in thirty-two years, but they also advanced all the way to their first NFC Championship Game since 1991, very nearly upsetting the Niners in a 34-31 thriller in which they led 24-7 at halftime. All of the growth and maturity that they exhibited down the stretch of the previous campaign continued last Fall, as a balanced and explosive attack was buoyed by an aggressive Defense that frequently shut down their opponent’s ground game. (Veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff continued to revel in his new lease on life in the Motor City, completing an efficient 67.3% of his throws for 4,575 yards on 6.89 net yards per attempt, with thirty touchdowns opposed to twelve interceptions, while a largely homegrown supporting cast developed at an accelerated rate. Rookies such as (Tailback) Jahmyr Gibbs and (Tight End) Sam LaPorta made an immediate impact with the former amassing 1,261 yards from scrimmage and eleven touchdowns, while the latter hauled in an NFL rookie record TEN scoring receptions at his position. Now they question is this: where do the Lions go from here? A trendy pick to reach their first-ever Super Bowl in franchise history, there are still some questions that this talented and entertaining group must answer. First, with the surprising return of (Offensive Coordinator) Ben Johnson, is there yet another level that the Offense and namely Goff (pictured below) can tap into? Detroit ranked fifth in points (27.1), third in total yards (406.8), second in passing (270.9), fifth in rushing (135.9), and third in the red zone (64.1%) last season, with a lot of the credit going to Johnson’s playcalling. Simply put, we don’t know how Campbell managed to retain his services, but this is an absolute coup for the team, as Johnson practically had his choice of franchises to headline this Fall. The other question is if the Defense can undergo a similarly swift growth as their teammates on the opposite side of the ball have. (Defensive Coordinator) Aaron Glenn also had plenty of suitors during the hiring cycle, yet he too opted to remain in Michigan, looking to elevate a unit that was very strong against the run, ranking second in that department (88.8), though not so much versus the pass. The Lions shipped 247.4 yards per game through the air (27th Overall) on an all-too generous 6.7 net yards per attempt (29th Overall), which played into their red zone struggles (66.0%, also 29th Overall). (Third-year Defensive End) Aidan Hutchinson flourished with 11.5 sacks, fourteen tackles for loss, thirty-three QB hits, and sixty-two pressures, while (Safeties) Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph combined for seven interceptions and twenty-four defended passes, but the Cornerbacks were frequently picked on. Campbell and (General Manager) Brad Holmes targeted this position in the offseason, adding (slot man extraordinaire) Amik Robertson in free agency along with Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. This team isn’t far from being complete, folks, which is what it will take to truly bring a Lombardi Trophy to the Motor City.
From a betting perspective, the Lions were a stellar 14-6 versus the spread last season, ending the campaign in a similar manner to how they began, covering SEVEN of their final nine outings, including their narrow defeat in the NFC Championship Game in which they were 7.5-point underdogs. Detroit was favored SIXTEEN times last year, which is a clear sign of how they have managed to change the perception of the franchise, mustering an 11-5 record against the spread in such games. In fact, this is a team that has covered four consecutive games in which they have been favored by 3.5-10.0 points, which is the case tonight. Campbell’s charges have also made a habit of getting off to strong starts as far as the spread is concerned, owning a commanding 7-1 mark in their last eight contests during the month of September. Looking at this particular matchup, the public doesn’t appear to see it the same way, as only about 33% of all bets placed upon the spread believe that the Lions will cover, while approximately 35% of all wagers in this regard have followed suit. As we covered earlier, the home team has ruled this series of late, with Detroit winning four of the last six meetings, all of which coming at Ford Field. Of course, last January’s triumph on Wild Card Weekend served as their first home playoff victory in over three decades. The hosts raced out to an early 14-3 lead thanks to rushing touchdowns from (veteran Tailback) David Montgomery and the aforementioned Gibbs, while Goff responded after a Rams touchdown with one of his own to LaPorta. That would be about it for the NFC North Champions, who would punt on three of their next four possessions. However, after receiving the ball with an opportunity to run out the clock late in the fourth quarter and clinging to a one-point lead, the home side managed to do just that as Goff found (All-Pro Receiver) Amon-Ra St. Brown for a clutch 11-yard completion on the latter side of the two-minute warning, allowing he and his teammates to run out the clock. Goff put in a strong performance against his former employers, completing 22-of-27 passes for 277 yards and a touchdown, while the tandem of Montgomery and Gibbs rushed for seventy-nine yards on twenty-five carries, with St. Brown reeling in seven catches for 110 yards. On the injury front, keep an eye on both Gibbs and Laporta, as both players are listed as questionable to participate tonight with both stars dealing with lingering hamstring strains. Furthermore, (All-Pro Tackle) Penei Sewell is nursing a tender ankle, while (veteran Defensive Tackle) D.J. Reader, a free agent added from Cincinnati, has been slowed by a strained quadricep. Oh, and those young Cornerbacks figure to see plenty of action thanks to the absence of Emmanuel Moseley, who is expected to be sidelined until October due to a partially torn pectoral muscle. And if that wasn’t bad enough, (veteran Kicker) Michael Badgely will miss the entire campaign with a torn hamstring, leaving Jake Bates, an undrafted rookie from Arkansas, to fill the void. Looking ahead, the Lions will host the Buccaneers next weekend in a rematch of their postseason affair from the division round, before finally hitting the road to face the Cardinals in a trip to the big toaster oven.