8:20 PM EST, ESPN/ABC – Spread: 49ers -4.0, Total: 43.5
Opening weekend of the 2024 NFL regular season reaches its conclusion out west, as the (reigning NFC Champion) San Francisco 49ers look to pick up the pieces following their second Super Bowl defeat in five years as they host the New York Jets, who in turn hope to stay healthy and contend in the competitive AFC. Despite the veritable maelstrom of hype behind them coming into last season, it would be difficult to envision that campaign transpiring in worse fashion for the Jets, who missed the playoffs yet again thanks to a rash of injuries that ravaged a completely renovated attack. Indeed, after acquiring the services of (4-time MVP) Aaron Rodgers and reconstructing the Offense to suit his needs, New York looked well-suited to breaking a 12-year postseason drought. However, tragedy would strike as Rodgers (pictured below) tore his Achilles THREE plays into the season opener, ending his first season with the franchise shortly after it began. As a result, Gang Green floundered to a 7-10 finish, what with the remaining Quarterback room struggling mightily behind a decimated Offensive Line. How bad was it on this side of the football, you ask? It got ugly, folks, as this unit ranked twenty-ninth in points (15.8), next-to-last in total yards (295.3), thirtieth in passing (198.4), thirty-first in net yards per attempt (4.4), and thirtieth in turnovers (33), along with dead-last in third down percentage (26.0%) and red zone percentage (32.4%). As such, rolling the proverbial dice on Rodgers remaining healthy at the ripe old age of forty is certainly a risk on the part of (Head Coach) Robert Saleh and (General Manager) Joe Douglas, ensuring that just about everyone’s jobs are tethered to the health and success of their aging Quarterback. So, with that in mind, is there any reason to think that this season with play out any different than its predecessor? Well, the Jets have gone to great lengths to bolster an Offensive Line that was mired in a never-ending game of musical chairs due to injury, adding (veteran Tackles) Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, while selecting (Penn State product) Olumuyiwa Fashanu eleventh overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft. At thirty-four and thirty-three years of age, it remains to be seen how much Smith and Moses have left in the tank, though Fashanu was by far and away the best pass-protector in a draft class loaded with premium linemen. Of course, a lot of this is going to come down to Rodgers, who is obviously no guarantee to bounce back in this, his twentieth season in the NFL. Two years ago, it appeared that he was on the decline in Green Bay, showing gradual statistical decay across the board, though the argument to be made is that all he needs to do for this team to be successful is play a more complementary brand of football than he has throughout his illustrious career. After all, the ground game is in good hands with (third-year Tailback) Breece Hall, who amassed 1,585 yards from scrimmage and nine total touchdowns last year, while (young Wideout) Garrett Wilson has now turned in back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns despite less than stellar play at QB. Furthermore, New York has one of the nastiest Defenses in the NFL, which could become dominant if their teammates on the opposite side of the ball could finally carry their weight. Saleh’s Defense ranked twelfth in points allowed (20.9), but third in total yards (292.3), thanks in large part to a stingy pass defense permitting just 168.3 yards (2nd Overall) with nearly as many interceptions (17) as touchdowns shipped (19), and a penchant for stiffening up in the red zone where they yielded a touchdown on 49.0% of their opportunities (7th Overall).
From a betting perspective, the Jets went 6-10-1 against the spread last season, though proved to be arguably the WORST play for bettors over the second half of the campaign. New York failed to cover an untenable NINE of their final eleven games, with outright victories over the likes of the Texans (30-6) and Patriots (17-3) offering any kind of a reprieve. It was clear that once Rodgers went down, all of the faith that the oddsmakers and public had in Gang Green flew off into the atmosphere, as this was a team that was favored on just three occasions last Fall (0-2-1 ATS). Saleh’s charges are 2-7-2 versus the spread in their last ten trips away from MetLife Stadium, while owning a 4-6 ledger in their past ten contests as an underdog. Looking at this particular matchup, the public does appear to be favoring Rodgers & Co, with roughly a 62% share of all bets placed upon tonight’s spread favoring the Jets, while an equivalent percentage of all money wagered on this contest following suit. Though they don’t meet very often, New York hasn’t gained much traction in this series of late, with just two victories in six encounters dating back to the turn of the century. The last time that they left San Francisco with a win came in a 2016, a 23-17 affair in which the visitors were 2.5-point underdogs. As for their most recent tryst, a 31-13 defeat at the Meadowlands back in 2020, the hosts were held to 277 total yards by Saleh’s Defense, a year before the former Defensive Coordinator left the Niners for greener pastures. While this matchup serves as a homecoming for Saleh, who served on San Fran’s coaching staff from 2017 to 2020, it’s also a return for Rodgers, who grew up in Northern California and grew up an unabashed 49ers fan. Over the course of his career, the 10-time Pro-Bowler 6-7 against them, with four of those defeats coming in the playoffs, completing 67.4% of his passes for an average of 255.5 yards per game on 7.14 net yards per attempt, with twenty-five touchdowns opposed to just five interceptions. On the injury front, keep an eye on the Offensive Line, as both Max Mithcell and the aforementioned Smith are listed as questionable with various maladies, along with (young Cornerback) Michael Carter, (Linebacker) Quincy Williams, and (veteran Wideout) Mike Williams, who was added via free agency after spending the previous seven seasons with the Chargers. There is also the ongoing saga surrounding (Edge-Rusher) Hasson Reddick, who was acquired via trade with the Eagles. The former Pro-Bowler has long since demanded a trade since arriving in New York, holding out from all team activities as the franchise looks for a buyer. Looking ahead, the Jets travel to Nashville to face the Titans next weekend before finally returning to the Meadowlands for back-to-back home games against the Patriots and Broncos, setting up what should be three very winnable contests for a team harboring grand aspirations.
Meanwhile, always the bridesmaid but never the bride, the 49ers once again enter a campaign having come oh, so close to claiming Super Bowl Glory. Since 2019, San Francisco has appeared in FOUR out of five NFC Championship Games and gone on to compete in two Super Bowls, though have come up short on both occasions. Apart from simply being the most recent, this last one must hurt the most for the Niners, who really did let the Chiefs off the hook in last February’s 25-22 overtime loss. (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan’s troops lost a pair of fumbles and had an extra point blocked, while the venerable skipper made a number of questionable decisions late in the affair, leaving way too much time left on the clock after drilling a 53-yard field goal to take a 19-16 lead in the fourth quarter, before winning the coin toss and opting to possess the football, which resulted in settling for yet another field goal. Of course, the rest is history as Kansas City marched right downfield and breached the end zone, ending another postseason in defeat for San Fran. So, how is this group picking up the pieces in lieu of taking another crack at claiming a sixth Lombardi Trophy, you ask? Well Shanahan and (General Manager) John Lynch have spent the vast majority of the offseason keeping their talent inhouse, which means they’ve been haggling contracts with their stars. A year after negotiating lucrative new deals for the likes of (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Deebo Samuel, (2022 Defensive Player of the Year) Nick Bosa, and (reigning Offensive Player of the Year) Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers have been back at it again focusing on extensions for (young Receiver) Brandon Aiyuk and (veteran Tackle) Trent Williams, who have both held out of all activities throughout camp. According to reports, the former was nearly dealt away on several occasions, though finally acquiesced and put pen to paper on the original deal that had been offered, a four-year, $120 million deal with $76 million in total guarantees. Aiyuk (pictured below) turned in a career campaign last Fall, reeling in seventy-five receptions for 1,342 yards on a healthy 17.9 yards per catch and seven touchdowns. As for Williams, the 36-year-old agreed to a restructured three-year, $82.66 million deal with nearly the entire sum guaranteed at signing. For a roster that has become increasingly top-heavy, it is important that San Francisco manages to keep these guys in place, for you never quite know when your window of opportunity is going to close. Speaking of opportunities, (third-year Quarterback) Brock Purdy is the one that makes this all possible from a financial perspective, for no team in the NFL is spending less money at the game’s most expensive position. Consider this, their opponent tonight is paying Rodgers $17.16 million this season (which is very cheap by today’s standards), costing roughly 6.72% of their salary cap, while the Niners are in turn paying Purdy just over $1 million, parlaying to a mere 0.39% of the team’s cap. With two seasons left on his rookie deal, Shanahan and Lynch can spread that wealth in other areas of need before having to make the hard decision to keep him long term and pay him a contract more in line with his position.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers went 9-10-1 against the spread last season, earning the distinction of being the only team in the league to be favored in literally EVERY SINGLE GAME that they competed in. After getting off to a stellar 4-0-1 start versus the spread, San Francisco really became a hard play for bettors, as they only managed to cover five of their final fifteen contests, which equates to a win percentage of just .333. With that being said, a lot of that had to do with the fact that they were oftentimes heavy favorites, facing spreads of greater than seven points on NINE occasions. Furthermore, they have failed to cover SEVEN straight games when favored at home. However, it is a different story tonight, as Shanahan’s charges are 5-1 ATS in their last six outings as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points. Looking at this particular matchup, the public aren’t buying that though, as only 38% of all bets placed upon tonight’s spread are residing with the reigning NFC Champions, with just as much of all the money wagered up this opener following suit. The 49ers have won eight of the last ten meetings dating back to 1986, including all but one of the four that have taken place in Northern California. Admittedly, it has been four years since these teams have met on the gridiron, with Shanahan fielding a very different side from that affair. Neither McCaffrey nor Purdy were members of the roster at that point, while Samuel and Bosa each missed the game due to injury. Aiyuk, who was a rookie making his first career start, hauled in two receptions for twenty-one yards, while (Pro-Bowl Linebacker) Fred Warner led the team with a dozen tackles. Shanahan’s system was in full effect though, as the visiting Niners trampled Gang Green to the tune of 182 rushing yards and two scores on twenty-nine carries, helping them to convert a healthy 7-of-13 third downs and possess the football for 32:13. On the injury front, given that they didn’t deploy really any of their starters throughout the preseason, there are a wealth of players listed as questionable for tonight’s opener, including McCaffrey, Warner, and (veteran Edge Rusher) Leonard Floyd, who was added in free agency from (division rival) Los Angeles. However, (veteran Linebacker) Dre Greenlaw (Achilles), (starting Guard) Jon Feliciano (knee), (young Cornerback) Ambry Thomas (forearm), and (playmaking Safety) Talanoa Hufanga (knee) are all expected to miss the action due to various ailments. Furthermore, (rookie Wideout) Ricky Pearsall, who they selected thirty-fourth overall in last Spring’s Draft, won’t see the field for at least a few weeks after being shot in an attempted robbery last week. Looking ahead, the Niners will hit the road for visits at the Vikings and Rams, before returning to Levi’s Stadium for a showdown with the Patriots.