8:15 PM EST, PRIME Video – Spread: Dolphins -2.5, Total: 49.0
After a stunning opening weekend to the 2024 regular season, Week Two kicks off with a BANG as the Buffalo Bills head to South Beach to battle the Miami Dolphins in an early clash of bitter division rivals. Coming into this season, there was a subtle amount of concern for the Bills (1-0, T-1st in AFC East), who experienced an offseason full of change, parting ways with a number of prominent figures that had factored heavily into their four successive division titles. Indeed, it was something of an exodus in Western New York, as Buffalo saw the likes of (Receivers) Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, (Center) Mitch Morse, (Edge-Rusher) Leonard Floyd, and (veteran Defensive Backs) Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer all skip town. Furthermore, one of their most impactful defenders, (veteran Linebacker) Matt Milano will either miss a chunk of the season or (in the case of the latter) the entire campaign due to injury. As a result, their lengthy reign atop the AFC East has never felt so precarious as (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane attempt to do one of the hardest things in sports: rebuild on the fly while remaining competitive. Just because the Chiefs managed to do that last year and win another Super Bowl doesn’t make it the norm, folks, as (two-time Pro-Bowler) Josh Allen will be counted upon to carry an even larger role of the Offense this Fall. It makes you wonder just how much more that the Bills can realistically ask from their prolific Quarterback, who last season overcame an uneven passing performance in which he tossed twenty-nine touchdowns in comparison to a career-high eighteen interceptions, while serving as the entire red zone attack with FIFTEEN rushing scores, the most of any player at his position last Fall. Well, we saw the good and the bad last weekend, as Buffalo was forced to rally back from a 17-3 deficit to best Arizona in an entertaining 34-28 victory. This one started as poorly as you could imagine for the hosts, who were helpless to stop the visiting redbirds from manufacturing three successive drives of 10+ plays/60+ yards, while Allen (pictured below) was stripped of the football on the fourth play of their opening possession. However, the Bills would eventually find their bearings on both sides of the football. Offensively, they would score on six of their next eight drives of the afternoon, with four resulting in touchdowns courtesy of Allen, who bookended a pair of 11-yard strikes to (offseason acquisition) Mac Hollins and Khalil Shakir with his own jaunts into the end zone. Defensively, McDermott made his adjustments and clipped their opponent’s wings, allowing only eighty yards and a field goal in the second half. When it was all said and done, Buffalo outgained Arizona 352-270 and 23-18 in first downs, rushing for 130 yards on thirty-three carries. Sure, they weren’t great on third down (3-of-9), but they converted on both fourth down attempts, while the Defense sacked Kyler Murray four times, stripped him of the ball once, and stopped the Cardinals on their lone try on fourth down. Allen completed an efficient 18-of-23 passes for 232 yards and rushed for another thirty-nine yards on nine carries, while (emerging Tailback) James Cook amassed 103 yards from scrimmage twenty-two touches. (Rookie Wideout) Keon Coleman also factored into the action, reeling in four receptions for fifty-one yards as Allen distributed the rock to nine different targets. Furthermore, (young Defensive End) Gregory Rousseau logged THREE sacks and that strip of Murray, while (three-time All-Pro) Von Miller had one of his own. Was that performance enough to quiet their skeptics? Probably not, but it was nonetheless an encouraging sign for a team that needed to get off to a strong start.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may have persevered in that opener against the Cardinals, but they ultimately failed to cover the spread (-6.5). Granted, they began last season in the same fashion and managed to string together three consecutive covers before falling into a midseason malaise. Buffalo is 5-5 versus the spread over their last ten games overall, matching that mark in their last ten trips away from Orchard Park and doing so within that same range as an underdog. They are however, 13-2 ATS versus an undefeated opponent in the first four games of the season, including a pristine 7-0 mark as dogs. Furthermore, this is a team that is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six outings played on natural grass, which is the case at Hard Rock Stadium. Looking deeper into this particular matchup, McDermott & Co have won all but one of their last ten encounters with the Dolphins straight-up (6-4 ATS), including each of their meetings from last season, along with four of their five most recent trips to South Florida. In fact, they only affair that they lost was a narrow 21-19 tilt in the sweltering Miami heat of mid-September 2022, in which the visitors miraculously lost a game in which they possessed the football for a whopping 40:40 and owned a +285 advantage in total yardage. Over the course of his career (including playoffs), Allen is 11-2 against the Fins, completing 65.7% of his throws for an average of 285.7 yards on a healthy 7.79 net yards per attempt, with thirty-six touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions, while rushing for another 50.6 yards per game with five more scores. In last year’s trip to Hard Rock, a 21-14 victory in the season finale, the visitors dominated with 473 total yards but were held back by three turnovers courtesy of Allen, who was picked off twice and lost a fumble. With that in mind, he connected on 30-of-38 passes for 359 yards and a pair of touchdowns, rushing for another sixty-seven yards to boot. On the injury front, the 28-year-old did apparently hurt his non-throwing hand, which was seen to be moderately wrapped late in Sundy’s win. He’s listed as questionable, while a slew of other Bills have followed suit, including (Cornerback) Taron Johnson, (Safety) Cole Bishop, (Linebacker) Nicholas Morrow, and (Edge-Rusher) Dawane Smoot. Looking ahead, Buffalo will return to Highmark Stadium to host Jacksonville next weekend, before embarking on a three-game road trip beginning in Baltimore, followed by Houston and New York. The schedule is loaded with ventures away from home, folks, as SIX of the next nine games will be contested outside of Orchard Park.
Meanwhile, it is now or never for the Dolphins (1-0, T-1st in AFC East), who are desperate to vault past their bitter rival to the top of the division. Miami hasn’t claimed a division crown since 2008 and have thus played the proverbial bridesmaid to Buffalo in three of the past four seasons. There is a prevailing theory that if they can’t get the job done this time around, then this particular group never will, folks, as this prolific, entertaining team needs to evolve into something greater than a fantasy football darling. Speed is the name of the game for these Fins, who boast some of the fastest players in the league at their respective positions on the offensive side of the ball, making them a threat to rip off large swaths of yardage at any given moment. Chief among these playmakers is (five-time All-Pro) Tyreek Hill, who since arriving on South Beach in 2022 has gone to become the most productive and feared pass-catcher in the NFL, totaling 245 receptions, 3,639 yards, and twenty-one touchdowns. Last year alone he led the league with a career-high 1,799 yards and thirteen receiving scores, and it appears that he is well on his way towards doing so once more. In last weekend’s come-from-behind 20-17 victory over the Jaguars, Hill (pictured below) got the hosts back into contention with a shocking 80-yard touchdown, cutting the deficit to three points, which was a gulf that (veteran Kicker) Jason Sanders overcame with two successive field goals. For all the talk of their offense, which accumulated the bulk of their 400 total yards in spurts on Sunday, Miami won this game on the defensive side of the ball. (New Defensive Coordinator) Anthony Weaver earned his stripes in his first game calling plays since arriving from Baltimore, limiting the visitors to 267 total yards, including just 104 in the second half, all but ten of which came on a single drive. However, despite Jacksonville driving ninety-four yards downfield, (emerging Safety) Jevon Holland made the play of the game, punching the ball out of the hands of Travis Etienne as the rusher barreled into the end zone, resulting in a momentum-shifting touchback for the home side. One play later and Hill struck with that aforementioned score. In the past, (Head Coach) Mike McDaniel’s troops would have lost a slower, physical game like this, particularly a matchup in which they weren’t frontrunners. Hell, the eccentric skipper even said so himself in the post-game press conference, making this opening victory a potential shift for the Dolphins. When it was all said and done, Hill racked up 130 yards and that touchdown on seven receptions, though he wasn’t the only player to shred the visiting defense: (third-year Wideout) Jaylen Waddle hauled in each of his five targets for a total of 109 yards, while (electrifying Tailback) De’Von Achane caught seven balls or seventy-six yards to go with his twenty-six rushing yards and a score. Furthermore, (veteran Quarterback) Tua Tagovailoa, who signed a massive four-year, $212.4 million contract extension in the offseason, overcame an uneven start to complete 23-of-37 passes for 338 yards and that strike to Hill. But getting back to the Cheetah, he was reported subdued by police officers (along with veteran teammate, Calais Campbell) on his way to Hard Rock Stadium, though was obviously motivated to make an impact, evidenced by his inspired TD celebration in which he acted as if he was being handcuffed.
From a betting perspective, the Dolphins may have gotten the W last weekend, but they didn’t get the cover as they came just short of that 3.5-point line. Dating back to last season, this is a team that has failed to cover FOUR consecutive contests, with Sunday’s opener being the first in which they’ve been favored by the oddsmakers. Miami is 6-4 against the spread in their last ten games played at Hard Rock, while splitting that same sample set as an underdog. As far as McDaniel goes, he is 10-3 ATS versus division brethren, though all three non-covers have come at the hands of Buffalo. However, as we stated earlier, they haven’t had much luck when it has come to the Bills, with just one victory in their last ten encounters (including playoffs). McDaniel’s troops are 4-6 ATS in those matchups, including a middling 5-5 both at home and as a favorite against Buffalo. In seven career encounters, Tagovailoa is 1-6 all-time versus his division rival, completing 61.1% of his passes for 207.7 yards per game on 6.47 net yards per attempt, with more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (6). All things considered, he was fairly poor in that aforementioned season finale, connecting on 17-of-27 passes for a mere 173 yards (his low for the season), one touchdown and a pair of interceptions. As for Hill, the speedster reeled in seven receptions on thirteen targets for eighty-two yards and a score in that affair, adding to his ledger against the Bills; Hill has sixty-five catches for 757 yards and three touchdowns in ten meetings. On the injury front, (veterans) Bradly Chubb (knee), Odell Beckham Jr (undisclosed), and Isaiah Wynn (quadricep) are all expected to be out of action until sometime in October with various maladies, while Waddle (undisclosed), Achane (ankle), and (fellow Tailback) Raheem Mostert (chest), who led the NFL with EIGHTEEN touchdowns a year ago, are listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s tilt with an assortment of ailments. Looking ahead, the Dolphins will make the longest road trip in the league as they travel to the Pacific Norhtwest to face the seahawks next weekend, before returning home to host the Titans.