8:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Kansas State -6.5, Total: 60.5
A clash of wildcats takes center stage tonight in the little apple, as (No. 20) Arizona battles (No. 14) Kansas State in a Friday Night Top 25 showcase from Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas. After spending the previous forty-six years as a happy resident of the Pac-12, Arizona (2-0, 0-0 in BIG XII) is now set to embark on their journey as a member of the BIG XII, serving as a dark horse to contend in the new conference. For those wondering why we may be so bullish on these Wildcats, consider this: ‘Zona is coming off a surprising 10-3 campaign that was full of firsts, including their largest ever victory over a ranked opponent (44-6 vs Washington State), beat consecutive ranked foes for the first time since 2014, and defeated four ranked teams for the first time since 1988, en route to finishing the campaign ranked eleventh in the AP, which was their best since 1989. Furthermore, (with Michigan taking the L last weekend) these felines are owners of the LONGEST active win streak in the country at NINE straight victories. Sure, the architect of much that success, (former Head Coach) Jedd Fisch left Tucson to become the leading man at Washington, but his replacement, Brent Brennan seems well-suited to keep the ball rolling in the desert. Something of a builder himself, Brennan did a commendable job at San Jose State, leading the program to back-to-back bowls and a Mountain West Championship back in 2020. Despite getting a late start at Arizona, he managed to retain the services of many of their biggest stars, including (Sophomore Quarterback) Noah Fifita and (Junior Receiver) Tetairoa McMillan, who are chief among fifteen returning starters. The former served as the catalyst for the ‘Cats seven-game win streak to close the campaign, completing a surgical 72.4% of his throws for 2,869 yards on 8.6 yards per attempt with twenty-five touchdowns in comparison to just six interceptions, while the latter ranked second in the Pac-12 in receiving yards (1,402) earning third-team All-America honors as a result. With two games in the books, it appears that they haven’t lost their touch under the guidance of Brennan and (Offensive Coordinator) Dino Babers, with the attack averaging a robust 41.5 points (25th in FBS) on 494.0 total yards, including 297.5 through the air. McMillan (pictured below) has been AS ADVERTISED, folks, reeling in a dozen receptions for 315 yards and four touchdowns, the latter two figures pacing the NCAA. At a physical 6’5″ and 215 pounds, this guy is a FREAK, who is as adept at winning jump balls as he is maneuvering his way through crowded coverage. Given the concerns that their opponent tonight has on the back end, he could be in for another BIG night in this trip to Manhattan. With that being said, the Wildcats were subject to a hard reality check in last weekend’s 22-10 victory over FCS adversary, Northern Arizona, whom they trailed until midway through the third period. It was a seriously slow start for Brennan’s charges, who could muster 149 yards in the first half, with their six possessions ending with three punts, an interception of Fifita in enemy territory, and a pair of field goals courtesy of (Senior Kicker) Tyler Loop. Thankfully, the second half was a very different story for the hosts, whose Defense absolutely shut down the Lumberjacks, relinquishing just seventy-nine yards of total offense, forcing a pair of turnovers on downs, with a fumble recovery and a safety to boot. The offense found a rhythm too, as Fifta found (Junior Wideout) Jeremiah Patterson for a 17-yard touchdown to retake the lead early in the second half, before (Mississippi transfer) Kedrick Reescano ripped off a 56-yard touchdown run four plays after that aforementioned Safety. In the end, Brennan will be lamenting his side’s lack of tact on third down (0-of-10) along with their overall discipline (10 penalties for 95 yards), but he will also be praising their ability to win an ugly affair in which they passed for 173 yards. Indeed, the ground game was key for the Wildcats, who rushed for 188 yards on twenty-nine carries, led by (San Jose State transfer) Quali Conley with 112 on seventeen rushes.
From a betting perspective, Arizona has yet to cover the spread thus far after doing so in all but two of their games from last season, parlaying to a net loss of two units. Granted, they’ve been sizable favorites in each of these contests, which is a sign of how the perception of this program has changed. Consider this, folks: the Wildcats were favored in seven games in 2023, with only one featuring a spread greater than 12.5 points, which was coincidentally also against Northern Arizona (-28.5). Over the course of his coaching career, Brennan is 44-39-1 against the spread, including 16-12 as a road dog, and 32-22-1 versus conference opponents. With that being said, this is a program that is 7-3 ATS in their last ten trips away from Tucson, while covering SIX consecutive games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Looking at this particular matchup, the public likes ‘Zona in this one, as approximately 80% of all wagers placed upon the spread are taking the points, with 72% of the total amount of money changing hands following suit. Brennan inherits a group that has covered SIX straight games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Unfortunately, they have also failed to cover ELEVEN consecutive contests as a road underdog of fewer than nineteen points against a conference opponent off of back-to-back straight-up victories, which is the case tonight. Historically, this is only the eighth meeting between these two schools, with these desert felines owning a 5-1-1 edge straight-up, though it will be their first meeting since 1978, a 31-0 shutout win in what was ironically their first season as a member of the old Pac-10. On the injury front, (Senior Tailback) Jacory Croskey-Merritt is listed as questionable after missing last weekend’s win over Northern Arizona due to an undisclosed malady. The New Mexico transfer reveled in rushing for 106 yards and a score on thirteen carries against his former school in a 61-39 season opener. Croskey-Merritt came into the campaign as RB1 for the Wildcats after piling up 1,190 yards and seventeen touchdowns for the Lobos last Fall. If he is unable to participate once more, look for the aforementioned tandem of Conley and Reescano to carry the load against a typically stout K-State defensive front. Looking ahead, Arizona will enjoy a bye week before continuing their maiden voyage through the BIG XII against a former Pac-12 foe, (No. 12) Utah, whom they routed in a 42-18 stunner in Tucson last November.
Meanwhile, awaiting them in the Little Apple is another breed of feline, as Kansas State (2-0, 0-0 in BIG XII) also comes into this affair unbeaten though thankful to be so after rallying to victory last weekend. After blowing out Tennessee-Martin in their opener (41-6), a tricky venture to Tulane proved to be far more perilous than anyone could have predicted as the Wildcats needed a pair of late touchdowns, including a clutch 15-yard fumble return to the house in order to finally seal the deal. Indeed, (Head Coach) Chirs Klieman must have been relieved to have dodged such a bullet, though the performance of his charges on both sides of the football left a lot to be desired. Offensively, the visitors began to find their rhythm in the second half, as (Sophomore Quarterback) Avery Johnson found (Junior Tailback) D.J. Giddens for a 45-yard touchdown to tie the score at 20-20, with (fellow Tailback) Dylan Edwards breaking free for a 13-yard touchdown to square things away once again midway through the final stanza. Then, with the hosts threatening once again, (Sophomore Linebacker) Austin Romaine punched the ball loose at the 25-yard line with (Freshman Safety) Jack Fabris recovering it and returning it fifteen yards for the go-ahead score. However, it wasn’t over, folks, as the Green Wave drove down the field and very nearly breached the end zone if not for a costly Offensive Passs Interference. Two plays later, (fellow Safety) V.J. called game with an interception in the end zone. When it was all said and done, K-State shipped 491 total yards, including 342 through the air, though managed to turn the tables with those two titanic takeaways. As for their own Offense, it is clear that (new OC) Conor Riley still has plenty of work to do with a unit that returns just four starters from last year’s prolific attack; despite amassing 396 yards, the visiting side struggled to find a steady rhythm, converting just 2-of-10 third downs, while also drawing seven penalties for a loss of fifty-five yards. This figures to be the story for much of the early stages of this season, as Johnson (pictured below) takes the reins from Will Howard, who transferred to Ohio State. The highest-ranked QB recruit to ever come to Kansas State, this kid made an impact when he was given the opportunity to do so last Fall, evidenced by his ninety rushing yards and FIVE touchdowns in a 38-21 victory at Texas Tech, while turning in a stellar performance in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, amassing 249 yards (71 rushing) and three total scores in the 28-19 triumph over North Carolina State. Through two games thus far, Johnson has proven to be far more efficient throwing the ball, completing 65.9% of his passes for 334 yards on 7.6 yards per attempt, with four touchdowns opposed to one interception, while rushing for seventy-seven yards on a healthy 7.0 yards per carry. It will be interesting to see how continues to develop behind a veteran Offensive Line that remains largely intact, owning a combined 116 FBS starts between them prior to the opener. How quickly they manage to gel will ultimately determine if they can reach double-digit wins for a second time in three years, while figuring to be one of the contenders in this new-look BIG XII.
From a betting perspective, Kansas State has also yet to cover the spread this Fall despite their perfect attendance straight-up, parlaying to a net loss of two units. The Wildcats were favored against both of their first two opponents, failing to cover a 37.5-point spread against UTM, while 9.5 points proved to be a bridge too far in last weekend’s rally in New Orleans. Under the leadership of Klieman, this is a program that is a stellar 41-24 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2019, including a 16-8 mark as a home favorite, and a 30-16 record versus conference opponents. In fact, KSU was 6-1 last season when favored in Manhattan, and 11-2 on that front over the last two seasons. Looking at this particular matchup, the public doesn’t appear to be very convinced with what they’ve seen from these cats thus far, as roughly 20% of all bets placed upon the spread is siding with these violet felines, while approximately 28% of all the money wagered at this point has followed suit to the little apple. Of course, there isn’t much history to go on in this affair, given that they haven’t crossed paths in forty-six years, with Kansas State only ever besting Arizona once, which came back in 1969, a 42-27 shootout in Tucson. As we stated earlier, tonight’s encounter will mark the first time ever that they will be hosting their newly minted conference neighbors. Looking ahead, the Wildcats will continue their trek through this renovated BIG XII, with a trip to BYU on tap for next weekend, followed by a return to Snyder Family Stadium where they will host (No. 13) Oklahoma State, who are fresh off dodging their own bullet, a 39-31 nailbiter against Arkansas that required double overtime to decide a victor.