12:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Alabama -16.5, Total: 51.5
With the regular season quickly picking up steam, a key interconference battle kicks off today’s slate of action as the (No. 4) Alabama Crimson Tide make a rare trip to Madison to face the Wisconsin Badgers, who would love to further this new regime with a titanic upset. While many programs are in the midst of turning the page from one Head Coach to the next, all Alabama (2-0, 0-0 in SEC) is attempting to do is successfully replace the greatest collegiate football coach of all time. A daunting task, for sure, but the school operated rather quickly in securing the services of (reigning AP Coach of the Year) Kalen DeBoer, who is fresh off taking Washington all the way to the National Final. While very few can compare to the GIANT that is Nick Saban, the 49-year-old has a very strong portfolio that should endear him to the faithful in Tuscaloosa, at least in the beginning of his tenure. DeBoer (pictured below) is 104-12 (.891) all-time between his stops at Sioux Falls, Fresno State, and of course Washington, where he guided the Huskies to their first Pac-12 Championship since 2018 in what served as the curtain call for the historic league. However, it can absolutely be argued that he has an even more talented team on his hands than the one that he led to acclaim a year ago, even with an exodus of players to graduation, the draft, and the transfer portal. With that being said, the Crimson Tide actually have more returning starters this year than they did the last, with seven on offense and six on defense. Remember, last year’s group started slowly with that early home loss against Texas, though gradually improved over the course of the campaign until they knocked off (two-time reigning National Champion) Georgia in the SEC Title Game. This time around, they aren’t breaking in a new Quarterback, as Jalen Milroe returns to continue his growth under the stewardship of DeBoer, one of the most respected offensive minds in the country. A dynamic runner, Milroe was benched at one point in 2023, though returned to take the job and never looked back, completing 65.8% of his passes for 2,834 yards, twenty-three touchdowns and six interceptions. With a more experienced Offensive Line protecting him and a wealth of young talent around him, the Junior has picked up where he left off with 399 yards and five scores on 66.7% passing, logging a healthy 11.1 yards per attempt. And how ironic is that his most recent display came in last weekend’s 42-16 victory over South Florida, the same team he was effectively benched against last September? With Bryant-Denny Stadium serving as the backdrop, Milroe would account for four touchdowns, two passing and two rushing in a matchup that saw the hosts trading touchdowns for field goals throughout much of the afternoon, before ripping off three consecutive touchdowns of 29+ yards within the final six minutes of regulation. Despite committing thirteen penalties for a loss of 120 yards and losing THREE fumbles, the hosts amassed 393 total yards, 194 of which came on the ground, while the Defense under new coordinator, Nick Sheridan relegated the Bulls to 309 yards, including a scant THIRTY-SIX through the air, and a combined 2-of-20 on third and fourth down. However, a second straight week of BIG plays has teased what this team can eventually become under DeBoer’s vision; after hauling in a 43-yard touchdown reception midway through the fourth period, (True Freshman Wideout) Ryan Williams now has THREE receiving scores of 40+ yards already, while (Junior Tailback) Jamarion Miller ripped off his second touchdown run of 30+ yards, the latter encompassing fifty-six yards in Saturday’s romp. The expectations are always sky-high in Tuscaloosa, and while the emergence a new crop of young stars will go a long way towards calming the faithful, much bigger challenges await, and they’ll need to improve their execution in order to meet them.
From a betting perspective, Alabama may be unbeaten straight-up, but they have split their first two games against the spread, easily covering the 34-point spread in the opener against Western Kentucky (63-0) but failing to do the same last weekend versus South Florida (-30.5). Last season, the Crimson Tide were 3-3 ATS away from Tuscaloosa, including 3-2 as a road favorite. Over the course of his coaching career, DeBoer is 26-19-1 versus the spread, including 8-7 when favored on the road, and a ridiculous 11-1-1 against non-conference opponents. Hell, his only straight-up loss in that regard came in last year’s National Title Game! Today’s trip to Camp Randall is ‘Bama’s first venture to BIG Ten territory since 2011, a 27-11 victory at Penn State. The Tide generally handled their business in road openers under Saban, winning NINE such contests in a row, though have failed to cover each of the last five. Looking at this particular matchup, these two programs have only ever met twice on the gridiron, splitting their two encounters. However, the most recent affair came in the 2015 season opener at AT&T Stadium, in which Alabama slowly grinded away Wisconsin in 35-17 victory, outrushing them 238-40. The Crimson Tide have had many stars throughout their illustrious history, though this marked the breakout of Derrick Henry, who would go on to claim the Heisman Memorial Trophy, rushing for 147 yards and three touchdowns on just thirteen carries. Oh, and did we fail to mention that ‘Bama would go on to claim their FOURTH National Championship under Saban that season? Anyways, getting back to this afternoon’s matchup, the disparity in wagers placed upon the spread have been split fairly evenly (48%), but an overwhelming 96% of all of the money being wagered on this game is siding with the visitors. For those searching for a relevant trend, there is one working against the Tide today: they have failed to cover five of their last six games an opponent fresh off a home win by double-digits. On the injury front, (Redshirt Freshman Wideout) Cole Adams and (Sophomore Left Tackle) Kadyn Proctor are each listed as questionable, with the former dealing with an upper body malady and the latter nursing a sore shoulder. Looking ahead, DeBoer will be preaching that his troops don’t get caught looking ahead, as they will enjoy their first bye week before returning to Bryant-Denny Stadium to host (No. 1) Georgia in an affair that will go a long way towards shaping the race for the SEC Title.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin (2-0, 0-0 in BIG Ten) is in a similar situation to their opponent tonight, though further along in the process as (Head Coach) Luke Fickell continues to evolve the program in this, his second season at the helm. Indeed, the 51-year-old has quite a task on his hands in Madison, where he is endeavoring to modernize a team that had been built in the same fashion for the bulk of three decades. What does that mean, you ask? Fickell (pictured below) has brought the spread offense to Camp Randall, with (Offensive Coordinator) Phil Longo implementing the scheme that he deployed to prolific effect during his stays calling plays at North Carolina (2019-2022) and Mississippi (2017-2018) before that. Of course, you need personnel to reflect that system, which is where the 2021 Coach of the Year finds himself. If there is a man to do it, then who better than Fickell? 62-15 (.805) since 2018, this guy owns the fifth-most victories among his contemporaries during that period, now looking to enact a revolution at a program that has amassed TWENTY-TWO consecutive winning seasons, by far and away the longest active streak in the nation. After a lukewarm 7-5 finish to his first year on the job, Fickell has fifteen returning starters, while a bevy of transfers have migrated to Madison, chief among them (Miami transfer) Tyler Van Dyke at Quarterback. Needless to say, it has been an uneven collegiate career for the Senior, who after bursting on the scene at Coral Gables as a Redshirt Frosh in 2021, struggled with injuries over the course of the ensuing two campaigns, tossing twenty-nine touchdowns opposed to seventeen interceptions. Learning and executing Longo’s offense has certainly been a process thus far, as the Badgers have averaged 27.5 points (87th in FBS) on 386.5 total yards thus far, with the veteran QB completing 60.3% of his passes for 406 yards on just 6.4 yards per attempt, with a single touchdown to his name. Needless to say, you expect a little more than this against the likes of Western Michigan (28-14) and South Dakota (27-13), the latter of which was a second unconvincing performance. After building a 17-3 lead at halftime, the hosts stumbled out of intermission while their opponent seized the moment, cutting the deficit to just four points towards the end of the third quarter. Wisconsin extended their lead with a 50-yard field goal courtesy of (Sophomore Kicker) Nathanial Vakos, though it wouldn’t be until midway through the final stanza before the faithful at Camp Randall could breathe easily as (Senior Tailback) Chez Mellusi capped an 11-play, 85-yard drive with a 1-yard jaunt into the end zone. When it was all said and done, the home side amassed 385 total yards on twenty-three first downs, rushing for 171 yards along the way on forty-one carries. Mellusi led the way with sixty yards and a pair of scores on sixteen rushes, while (Redshirt Freshman) Cade Yacamelli looked far more explosive with seventy-three yards on just eight carries. As for Van Dyke, he completed 17-of-27 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown. Thankfully, the Defense led by (DC) Mike Tressel has been well ahead of their teammates on the opposite side of the ball, squatting on South Dakota, who could muster just 237 total yards, thirteen first downs, and 2-of-11 on third down. On the season, this unit has relegated their opponents to 13.5 points (43rd in FBS) on 249.0 total yards, parlaying to a mere 4.8 yards per play. Of course, a visit from the fourth-ranked Crimson Tide represents a STEEP growth in competition for both the Offense and the Defense, which should serve as a proper measuring stick for just how far along this team is before they embark on what is shaping up to be a difficult BIG Ten schedule.
From a betting perspective, Wisconsin may also be unbeaten straight-up, but they have yet to find any success against the spread, failing to cover either of their first two games, parlaying to a net loss of as many units. Granted, they were fairly sizable favorites in each contest, laying 17.5 points to Western Michigan and 24.0 to South Dakota. With that being said, that won’t be the case tonight as the Badgers find themselves receiving points from the oddsmakers for just the third time under Fickell’s stewardship; they are 2-0 versus the spread in the previous two instances at Ohio State (+15) and against LSU in the Reliaquest Bowl (+10). Over the course of his coaching career, Fickell is 52-50-1 ATS, including 4-1 as a home underdog, and 21-17 in non-conference affairs. Historically, Wisconsin and Alabama have split their only two all-time meetings, with this being the first time that Madison has served as the backdrop since 15-0 victory all the way back in 1928! In fact, this afternoon’s tilt marks the first time that a resident of the SEC has paid them a visit since 1971 (LSU). As we covered earlier, the most recent crossing of paths between these two programs came over a decade ago in that 2015 season opener, in which the Badgers were outgained by 234 total yards (-198 rushing!!!), shipping twenty-one unanswered points as 12-point underdog on a neutral field. Looking at today’s matchup, the public seem to favor the hosts (and the points), with roughly 52% of all bets placed upon the spread taking Fickell & Co, though the majority of the money says otherwise with approximately 4% of green following suit. As for a relevant trend for today’s visit from the Tide, the Badgers have covered EIGHT straight games as an underdog of fewer than nineteen points when coming off a straight-up win against a non-conference opponent. However, they have also failed to cover SIX consecutive contests after yielding fewer than fourteen points, which is also the case this afternoon. On the injury front, (Sophomore Receiver) Quincey Burroughs is out for the season with an undisclosed malady, while (Senior Tailback) Tawee Walker and (Freshman Tight End) Rob Booker are both listed as questionable and could tax the depth at their respective positions thanks to undisclosed ailments of their own. Looking ahead, Wisconsin will also enjoy a bye week after this contest, though will be making the long trip to Los Angeles to battle (No. 11) USC as the Trojans continue to their maiden venture into the BIG Ten.