8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Texans -6, Total: 45.5
A clash of talented young quarterbacks takes the spotlight on this second Sunday of the 2024 campaign, as the new-look Chicago Bears attempt to remain perfect in this trip to South Texas to face the loaded Houston Texans, who have designs on competing for AFC supremacy. It is difficult to remember a franchise being the subject of such good fortune as the Bears (1-0, T-1st in NFC North), who in the span of two years have completely remade their team into a group that looks like it could challenge for a playoff spot sooner rather than later. Just two years ago, Chicago finished with the worst record in the NFL and as a result earned the number one overall pick in the 2023 Draft. However, realizing that their weaknesses were far greater than simply taking the highest-rated prospect at quarterback, the tandem of (Head Coach) Matt Eberflus and (General Manager) Ryan Poles opted to shift out of that position altogether, trading places with the Panthers in exchange for (dynamic Wideout) D.J. Moore and Carolina’s first-round pick in the following draft. Nobody could have known just how important that pick would be, as the black cats floundered to a 2-15 finish, the worst mark in the league. The Bears on the other hand, rallied back from a disappointing start to post a 7-10 ledger, all too happy to pick first overall in last April’s Draft, selecting (2022 Heisman winner) Caleb Williams. For a team that has been starved for a franchise QB for decades, the acquisition of Williams (pictured below) feels transformative on many levels; the 22-year-old’s talents should ensure that Chicago becomes and remains successful for years to come, while the commercial buzz surrounding his personality should bring plenty of attention to the Windy City in a way that the area hasn’t seen in ages. Oh, and he has attracted plenty of talent too; Eberflus and Poles added (former Pro-Bowl Wideout) Keenan Allen via trade while signing (veteran Tailback) D’Andre Swift and (two-time All-Pro Safety) Kevin Byard in Free Agency and continued to stockpile offensive talent later in that same draft, selecting (All-American Receiver) Rome Odunze ninth overall. So, with all these new pieces at their disposal, how did they handle themselves in last weekend’s season opener against the Titans, you ask? Well, it was a very mixed bag to say the least. For all intents and purposes, Williams looked every bit like a rookie passer making his first career start, as the offense could muster only 148 total yards on eleven first downs in the 24-17 victory. The young gun struggled for a mere ninety-three yards on 14-of-29 passing, while picking up another fifteen yards on five carries with a pair of sacks and a fumble. Thankfully, the defense and special teams bailed him and the rest of the attack out. Trailing 17-3 coming out of halftime, Eberflus’ troops got back into the affair as (veteran Safety) Jonathan Owens returned a blocked punt twenty-one yards to the house to cut the deficit to seven points. Then, after a pair of long field goals from (veteran Kicker) Cairo Santos, (young Cornerback) Tyrique Stevenson intercepted an inexplicable pass attempt from Will Levis, returning it forty-three yards for a touchdown, with Williams tossing a two-point conversion to Swift to extend their lead to seven points. In the end, it was a performance that would remind many of the faithful at Soldier Field of the glory years and the Monsters of the Midway as they overcame their offensive struggles with three takeaways and a pair of touchdowns, along with three sacks, ten QB hits, fifteen pressures, and eight tackles for loss. Indeed, if it wasn’t for their exploits, then Williams wouldn’t have become the first quarterback selected first overall to prove victorious in his debut start since David Carr did it all the way back in 2002. Prior to that, such individuals making their first start were a dismal 3-20-1 dating back to 1983.
From a betting perspective, the Bears have covered the spread in seven of their last ten games dating back to last season (7-2-1 ATS), including last weekend’s rally to overtake the Titans, whom they were favored against by a flat four points. With that being said, they are 4-6 versus the spread in their last ten trips away from Soldier Field and have covered just one of their last six contests in the month of September. Furthermore, they are 4-12 in such affairs away from home in that particular month, including 0-5 versus an opponent coming off a win, which is the case tonight. Under Eberflus’ leadership, this is a team that is 14-18-3 ATS. Chicago has covered just one of their last seven outings following a home game against a non-conference opponent, which is also the case tonight. Looking deeper into this particular matchup, the Bears are just 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Texans, despite winning each of the past two encounters straight-up. When they crossed paths back in 2022, a 23-20 victory in the Windy City, the hosts (-3) earned the W on the strength of three field goals from Santos, whose 30-yarder as time expired decided the contest. In a sloppy tilt that featured a total of four interceptions thrown by the respective quarterbacks, it would be (unheralded Tailback) Khalil Herbert who stole the show, erupting for 157 rushing yards and a pair of scores on twenty carries. At the moment, it appears that the public is all over Chicago, with a whopping 81% of all bets wagered on the spread thus far riding with Williams & Co, despite their being a MAJOR disparity with the volume of overall money changing hands (just 9%). On the injury front, Allen (heel), Odunze (knee), and (veteran Defensive End) DeMarcus Walker (foot) are all listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Bears will remain on the road for a trip to Indianapolis next weekend, which will serve as a reunion of sorts for Eberflus, who rose to prominence as the Colts’ Defensive Coordinator from 2018 to 2021. From there, they’ll return to Soldier Field for a three-game homestand beginning with a visit from the Rams.
Meanwhile, the Texans (1-0, T-1st in AFC South) are where their opponent tonight wants to be. It was just two years ago in which this franchise slumped to their third consecutive losing campaign, thus earning the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. While the Bears and Panthers exchanged picks, (General Manager) Nick Caserio and (newly minted Head Coach) DeMeco Ryans were happy to stand pat and select whichever quarterback fell into their laps. Fortunately for everyone in the organization, that happened to be (Offensive Rookie of the Year) C.J. Stroud. Simply put, the Ohio State product was nothing short of a revelation in his first season in the NFL, completing 63.9% of his passes for a rookie record 273.9 yards per game on 7.03 net yards per attempt, with twenty-three touchdowns opposed to just five interceptions. Furthermore, he became the youngest starting quarterback to ever win a playoff game, as Houston went on to claim their first division crown since 2019. Rather than sit back and be content with emphatically ending a three-year drought, the franchise continued to build upon their success in the offseason, as Caserio imported a wealth of veteran talent to raise the potential for a team that many are predicting to be a dark horse contender within the AFC. (Wideout) Stefon Diggs, (Edge-Rusher) Danielle Hunter, and (Tailback) Joe Mixon have a combined NINE Pro-Bowls between them, giving Ryans a far more balanced team on both sides of the ball than before. So, with all that in mind, how did the Texans fair in their opener last weekend at the Colts, you ask? Well, this one was arguably the most entertaining affair of the weekend, folks, as the visitors outlasted Indy in a 29-27 victory. Despite moving downfield with relative ease, Houston had to settle for a pair of field goals from (veteran Kicker) Ka’imi Fairbairn, before Stroud (pictured below) found Diggs for a short strike into the end zone to take a 12-7 lead into halftime. Later, clinging to a two-point lead, the Offense managed to run out the clock as Stroud hit (third-year Wideout) Nico Collins for a clutch 12-yard completion earning a new set of downs just before the two-minute warning. From there, Mixon called game with a nine-yard run on third-and-three, effectively ending the affair. When it was all said and done, the Texans amassed 417 total yards, outgaining the home side by 114 yards, with a whopping 213 yards coming on the ground, 159 yards courtesy of Mixon. Simply put, this is a welcome turn for a team that struggled to run the ball with consistency last Fall, ranking twenty-second overall (96.9). As a result, they possessed the rock for a commanding 40:00 of game time, aided by 7-of-14 conversions on third down and 2-of-2 on fourth. Stroud completed 24-of-32 passes for 234 yards and a pair of scores, with (third-year Wideout) Nico Collins leading the way with 117 receiving yards on six catches. Apart from falling victim to a pair of long touchdown passes, traveling sixty and fifty-four yards respectively, Ryans’ Defense looked strong, holding Anthony Richardson to just nine completions, with an interception, and a pair of sacks.
From a betting perspective, (dating back to last season) the Texans have failed to cover back-to-back games for the first time since late November of 2023, as they narrowly missed the spread last weekend (-3). Houston is a middling 5-5 versus the spread over their last ten outings overall, matching that mark within that same range of games contested at NRG Stadium. With that being said, it appears that they haven’t quite acclimated to life as a favorite, for this is a team that has covered just three of their past ten games when favored by the oddsmakers. Under Ryans’ leadership, they are 10-10 ATS, though are a stellar 7-1 versus an opponent who are above .500 and coming off a meeting with a non-divisional foe, which is the case tonight. However, they are also 1-5 under his direction when favored after facing a team not from the AFC South. Furthermore, they are 8-1 ATS in the month of September when at home versus an opponent coming off a straight-up win of seven or fewer points, which is once again the case tonight. Looking deeper into this particular matchup, the Texans are 3-2 all-time against the Bears straight-up, though 3-1-1 as far as the spread is concerned, with that aforementioned 23-20 defeat at Soldier Field serving as the most recent encounter. Davis Mills, who currently serves as Stroud’s backup, was the starter that afternoon, completing 20-of-32 passes for 245 yards with a touchdown, though was intercepted twice, with the latter proving rather consequential as it led to the game-winning field goal for the hosts. On the other hand, (emerging Safety) Jalen Pitre enjoyed quite a performance with a pair of interceptions and a recovered fumble in just his third career start. As we stated earlier, the public doesn’t appear to fancy Houston very much, at least in terms of the percentage of bets (19%) being placed upon the spread, which they clearly think is too large. However, the overall money being wagered tells a much a different story, with a staggering 91% of all green changing hands happening to be of another mind altogether. On the injury front, (Tight End) Dalton Schultz (ankle) and (Safety) M.J. Stewart (knee) are listed as questionable with various maladies, while (Tackle) Cameron Irving (undisclosed), (Linebacker) Christian Harris (calf), and (Cornerback) Jeff Okudah (hip) will all be out of action until mid-October with ailments of their own. Looking ahead, the Texans will travel to Minneapolis for a date with the Vikings next weekend, before returning home to host the Jaguars and Bills in successive weeks.