8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Eagles -5.5, Total: 45.5
Week Two comes to a conclusion tonight with a battle of the birds from the City of Brotherly Love, as the Atlanta Falcons are desperate to get back on track after a flat opener, while the Philadelphia Eagles return from Sao Paulo in search of a second consecutive victory to begin the campaign. Coming into this Fall, the Falcons (0-1, T-4th in NFC South) were a trendy pick by many to capture their first division crown since 2016, which coincidentally culminated in their second NFC Championship in franchise history. After suffering a sixth straight losing campaign, which is a first for the club since the late 80s, (General Manager) Terry Fontenot felt his seat getting rather warm, forcing him into action, leading to the dismissal of (former Head Coach) Arthur Smith and the hiring of his replacement, Raheem Morris. Now, Morris is certainly no stranger to the franchise, having served six years as an assistant (2015-2020) before becoming Interim Head Coach for eleven games four years ago. Following three strong seasons as the Rams’ Defensive Coordinator, the 48-year-old finally got his second full-time gig after a 12-year wait; once upon a time, he was the youngest skipper in NFL (33!) leading the Buccaneers from 2009 to 2011. With a new leading man in place, the Falcons then turned their attention to the position that had vexed them in recent seasons: Quarterback. After luring Kirk Cousins to the ATL as a free agent, Fontenot and Morris doubled down in the draft, selecting Michael Penix Jr with the eighth overall pick. The latter was seen as premium insurance policy for Cousins (pictured below) who is coming off a torn Achilles that claimed the final nine outings of the previous campaign. With that being said, the talents of the 4-time Pro-Bowler were seen as essential to unlocking the potential of an attack loaded with young playmakers, again leading many to believe that these dirty birds were finally ready to take flight. So, with all that in mind, how did Atlanta fair in their opener against the Steelers, you ask? Well, not very well, as the offense sputtered mightily in a 18-10 defeat. Despite Morris’ defense not conceding a single touchdown, Cousins & Co couldn’t shake the visible rust against one of the stingier teams in the league; the hosts could muster a mere 226 total yards on fifteen first downs, rushing for eighty-nine yards on twenty-two carries, and possessing the football for 24:24 of game time. It was a rough afternoon at the office for Cousins, who completed 16-of-26 passes for a modest 155 yards, and apart from a 12-yard touchdown toss to (young Tight End) Kyle Pitts, was intercepted twice and sacked on as many occasions. At no point in the game did the 36-year-old ever appear to be settled within the pocket, as he was hit five time and subject to NINE pressures, which equated to be harassed on an untenable 32.1% of his drop backs. (Sophomore Tailback) Bijan Robinson did amass 111 yards from scrimmage on twenty-three touches, though was largely kept in check, while the tandem of Pitts and (third-year Wideout) Drake London could combine for no more than forty-one yards on five receptions. Needless to say, there is plenty to work as (Offensive Coordinator) Zac Robinson continues to find a way to make all of these disparate pieces fit together. The franchise has invested heavily on the offensive side of the football over the past few years, meaning that there is growing pressure for this unit to start producing results, for the excuse of an abridged preseason is finite at best.
From a betting perspective, the Falcons have covered just one of their last seven games dating back to last season as they were favored by four points against the Steelers last weekend. In fact, that was the most points that they laid to an opponent since the season opener from the previous campaign (-3.5). The road has been a difficult place for these birds, who have covered just two of their last ten trips away from Mercedes-Benz Superdome, while proving to be only marginally better when they’ve found themselves receiving points form the oddsmakers (3-7 ATS). Dating back to his interim stint with Atlanta, Morris is a middling 6-6 versus the spread, while if you take his entire portfolio as a head coach into review, he is a miserable 3-12 in that regard against opponents who are .500 or better, while also 7-18 opposite a team fresh off SU/ATS success, with both scenarios being the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Falcons have lost four of their last five encounters with the Eagles dating back to 2016, while failing to cover all but two of their past ten trips to Philadelphia. With that being said, they are 4-1 ATS against them in their last five meetings as an underdog, which is also the case tonight. In their most recent affair, a 32-6 debacle in the 2021 opener, the dirty birds were outgained 434-260 in total yards, struggling mightily to even sustain drives, converting a dismal 3-of-14 on third down and 1-of-3 on fourth. As for Cousins, he has faced Philly quite often, owning a 6-5 record in which he has completed 66.6% of his passes for an average of 303.7 yards on 7.41 net yards per attempt, with twenty-six touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions and four lost fumbles. Of course, we’d be remiss if we didn’t cover his perplexing problems on Monday Night Football. Cousins is a miserable 3-10 in such contests, with nineteen touchdowns and sixteen total turnovers over the course of his career. On the injury front, (veteran Receiver) Rondale Moore will miss the entire season due to a torn ACL suffered back in Training Camp, while (Right Tackle) Kaleb McGary is listed as questionable after nursing a tender groin throughout the week of practice. Looking ahead, things won’t get any easier for the Falcons, who will welcome the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Chiefs next weekend in a primetime affair, before hosting a pair of division battles against the Saints and Buccaneers. With six of their first nine outings at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Atlanta needs to start building some momentum for themselves, for it will likely be much more difficult to do so later in their schedule.
Meanwhile, revenge is on the minds of the Eagles (1-0, T-1st in NFC East), who after getting off to a stellar (albeit flawed) 10-1 start last season, entered into a downward spiral, losing five of their final six games before getting utterly embarrassed by the Bucs on Wild Card Weekend (32-9). Wiping away that indignity has been the mandate in Philadelphia since last January, with (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni and (General Manager) Howie Roseman spending the last seven months turning over the coaching staff and bolstering a roster that had sprung more than a few leaks at key positions. On the coaching front, Sirianni replaced both of his Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, becoming just the fourth team in NFL history to open a third consecutive campaign with new skippers at each post. Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio were tabbed for those respective positions, with each individual bringing plenty of positives to Philly; the former crafted one of the league’s most prolific attacks during his tenure with (bitter rivals) Dallas, while the latter has long been one of the most respected defensive minds, often building formidable defenses in his stays with San Francisco, Chicago, and Denver. As for personnel, Sirianni and Roseman swung for the fences with the addition of (2-time Pro-Bowler) Saquon Barkley. The 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year was one of the most versatile ad productive Tailbacks during his six years with the (division rival) Giants, despite often being handcuffed by injuries and less-than-stellar supporting cast. However, he nonetheless surpassed 1,200 yards from scrimmage on four occasions in New York, while totaling 10+ combined touchdowns three times. Returning to the state where he starred on a collegiate level, Barkley (pictured below) figures to be nothing short of a home run signing as he fits seamlessly into the Eagles’ attack. So, with that in mind, how did these new faces handle themselves in last weekend’s opener in Sao Paulo, you ask? Well, it was certainly a sloppy affair in the NFL’s first-ever venture to the southern hemisphere, though Philadelphia managed to emerge victorious all the same in a 34-29 win over Green Bay. Indeed, things started slowly for the birds, as (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Jalen Hurts was intercepted before losing a fumble on their first two drives, though Fangio’s defense limited the damage to a pair of field goals. From there, the offense settled into a rhythm, scoring twenty-four points over their next four possessions to take a 24-19 advantage early in the second half. The two sides would trade touchdowns as Barkley breached the end zone for the third time of the night, before a 21-yard field goal from (veteran Kicker) Jake Elliott extended the lead to five points, which was enough to finish the Packers off. When it was all said and done, the two teams combined for 824 total yards of offense, including 307 yards on the ground and another 517 through the air, along with four turnovers and seventeen penalties for 128 yards lost. As far as debuts go, it would be difficult to imagine a more impressive one for Barkley, who accounted for 132 yards from scrimmage (109 rushing) on twenty-six touches and three scores. Hurts bounced back after those early mistakes completing 20-of-34 passes for 278 yards, two touchdowns and picks apiece, highlighted by a 67-yard strike to (All-Pro Wideout) A.J. Brown shortly after intermission. Defensively, Fangio’s unit were gashed on a number of occasions, but were solid situationally, yielding 3-of-11 on third down and pressuring the opposing quarterbacks on 25.0% of their drop-backs.
From a betting perspective, with that win in Brazil, the Eagles snapped a streak of seven consecutive games without a cover, doing so for the first time since November 26th of 2023. During his time in Philadelphia, Sirianni is 25-29-3 against the spread, including 7-20 in that regard versus opponents with revenge, which is the case tonight. These birds are 1-13 as favorites against a sub-.500 team coming off a spread loss during the month of September. With that being said, Philly has been a bankable play when they enter Monday Night Football with a bit of momentum, for they are 16-2 versus the spread in such games when coming off a SU/ATS victory, which is also the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Eagles have beaten the Falcons in four of the last five encounters, though it should be noted that the underdogs have covered each of the past four meetings. When they last crossed paths in that aforementioned one-sided opener from 2021, Hurts erupted for 264 yards and three touchdowns on an efficient 27-of-35 passing, while rushing for another sixty-two yards on seven carries. (veteran Wideout) DeVonta Smith was one of three Eagles to reel in a score, totaling six receptions for seventy-one yards to lead the visiting side. Getting back to Hurts, the 26-year-old is 4-4 all-time on MNF, completing 65.3% of his throws for an average of 213.9 yards on a healthy 7.26 net yards per attempt, though has tossed more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (7). However, he remains one of the most prolific rushing threats at his position, with that being no less true in this case, racking up another 36.6 yards per game and NINE scores. On the injury front, (Defensive Backs) James Bradberry (lower leg) and Sidney Brown (knee) are expected to be sidelined until next month with various maladies, while (veteran Linebacker) Devin White could make his debut with the team after signing with the team in free agency. The former Pro-Bowler didn’t make the trip to Sao Paulo due to a lingering ankle sprain, which has left him questionable to participate in tonight’s affair. However, the biggest absence will be that of the aforementioned Brown, who has succumbed to a lingering soreness in his hamstring. Looking ahead, the road will be the Eagles’ home for the foreseeable future, for after tonight they will face SEVEN of their next ten opponents away from Lincoln Financial Field, beginning with the Saints and Buccaneers, the latter serving as rematch of last January’s fateful postseason loss.