8:15 PM EST, PRIME Video – Spread: Jets -6.5, Total: 38.5
Week Three kicks off tonight in the Meadowlands, as bitter division rivals renew acquaintances with the New York Jets playing host to the new-look New England Patriots, beginning a new era under a new head coach for the first time since the turn of the century. Indeed, if following in the footsteps of Tom Brady was difficult for the Patriots (1-1, T-2nd in AFC East), then how do you think they feel about (Head Coach) Jerod Mayo succeeding the legendary Bill Belichick? During his twenty-four years in Foxborough, Belichick owned a ridiculous 387-266 (.687) record, including 30-12 (.714) in the playoffs, en route to claiming SEVENTEEN division crowns, NINE AFC Championships, and SIX Super Bowl Titles. Even with the train falling off the proverbial tracks in the final years of his tenure, the shadow cast by the second-winningest coach in NFL history is long and dark, though it makes sense that the franchise would opt to promote from within, as Mayo (pictured below) knows full well the legacy (and pressure) that he inherits. Indeed, the youngest head coach in the league knows exactly what he’s getting into, having started at Linebacker for Belichick from 2008 to 2015 in which he was selected to a pair of Pro-Bowls and hoisted a Lombardi trophy in 2014. He also spent the last five years as a member of his mentor’s staff, coaching up his former position to aplomb. With that being said, the 38-year-old understood the need for new blood in New England, overhauling the coaching staff that preceded him with SEVENTEEN new assistants, including (Offensive Coordinator) Alex Van Pelt, who was poached from the Browns’ staff. So, with all that in mind, how have the Patriots stood up through the first two weeks of the campaign, you ask? Well, better than most would have expected. Despite being the biggest underdogs of the opening weekend, Mayo & Co pulled a shock upset of the Bengals in a 17-10 affair in Cincinnati, only to follow that up by very nearly doing the same to the Seahawks in a 23-20 defeat that required overtime to crown a victor. The hosts struck first with an 8-play, 60-yard drive on their second possession culminating in a 5-yard touchdown toss from (veteran Quarterback) Jacoby Brissett to (Rookie Receiver) Ja’Lynn Polk. After conceding a long touchdown to the visitors, they responded with a 15-play, 59-yard drive followed by a 9-play, 60-yard possession, though both ended in field goals as they went into intermission trailing 17-13. It wouldn’t be until the fourth quarter until another point was scored, with the Pats breaking through on a short jaunt into the end zone courtesy of (veteran Tailback) Rhamondre Stevenson. However, a blocked 48-yard field goal would loom large, as Seattle tied the score with a field goal of their own, sending the affair to overtime. Winning the coin toss, the home side kept the football but couldn’t do much with it, punting it away to the birds, who slowly marched downfield, setting up the game-winner from thirty-one yards, which was good. In the end, the Patriots kept things close, though could muster just 310 total yards, but dominated time of possession (35:42) thanks to a sizable 185-46 edge in rushing yards, all but eight of coming from the tandem of Stevenson and (fellow Tailback) Antonio Gibson. Jacoby Brissett completed 15-of-27 passes for 149 yards and that strike to Polk, while (veteran Tight End) Hunter Henry carried the passing attack with eight receptions on twelve targets for 109 yards. This is going to have to be the recipe for success moving forward for Mayo, keeping games close by running the ball and playing sound defense. After all, it has now been TWENTY-SIX games since New England has amassed at least 400 total yards in a single game. With more and more games being decided by six points or fewer (42.6% dating back to last season), this is a team that has accounted for thirteen of those 130 such contests.
From a betting perspective, the Patriots may be 1-1 straight-up thus far, but they have yet to lose against the spread through two weeks (1-0-1) and are actually 4-1-2 in that regard in their last seven outings dating back to last December. They have also covered four of their last five ventures away from Gillette Stadium, while owning a 5-3-2 mark versus the spread in their last ten contests as an underdog. As for their relationship on that front with their opponent tonight, New England has 7-3 ATS over the past ten meetings with New York, including 4-1 in their last ten trips to MetLife Stadium, and matching that figure on the last five occasions that they’ve received points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Mayo’s troops 16-4 ATS with revenge against their AFC East brethren coming off a non-division affair, which is the case tonight. They are also 5-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games, which is also the case in this matchup. Looking deeper into this encounter, the public doesn’t appear to be buying into any of those trends, as roughly 43% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with the Patriots, while a smaller share (41%) of all money wagered thus far has followed suit to Foxborough. When they last met, a 17-3 loss in a snowy season finale last January, the offense was utterly lifeless with a scant 119 total yards on just SIX first downs, along with a dreadful 1-of-17 between third and fourth down, and a pair of turnovers to boot. Simply put, that was the antithesis of the Patriot Way, folks. Back for his second tour of duty with the franchise that drafted him way back in 2016, Brissett has technically competed against the Jets four times, but has only seen extensive time on the field in two of those encounters, the first being a 31-30 defeat back in 2022 when he was a member of the Cleveland Browns, where he completed an efficient 22-of-27 passes for 229 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while rushing for another forty-three yards on six carries. The other was another narrow loss (30-28), this time with the Commanders last Fall, in which he came on for an injured Sam Howell to complete 10-of-13 throws for 100 yards and a score. On the injury front, New England has been riddled with injuries in the trenches, as (Defensive Tackle) Christian Barmore, (Center) Jake Andrews, and (young Guard) Cole Strange are all expected to miss significant time. (Veteran Center) David Andrews (hip), (Tackle) Vederian Lowe (knee), (Lineman) Mike Onwenu (wrist), (Guard) Sidy Sow (ankle), and (fellow Guard) Layden Robinson (shoulder) are listed as questionable to participate on this quick turnaround tonight. Furthermore (Defensive End) Deatrich Wise (shoulder), and (Linebacker) Oshane Ximines (knee) are in the same boat. Looking ahead, it doesn’t get any easier for the Pats, who will travel to the west coast to face the (reigning NFC Champion) 49ers, before returning to Foxborough for the first of two meetings with the Dolphins.
Meanwhile, there is always pressure to perform when you represent the Big Apple, but that pressure seems to be exponentially greater for the Jets (1-1, T-2nd in AFC East), who feature a slew of prominent figures who are on the proverbial hot seat this Fall. After last year’s trainwreck culminated in the franchise’s THIRTEENTH consecutive season without a playoff appearance, which is the longest current drought in the NFL, Gang Green went about ensuring that a repeat of that dumpster fire doesn’t happen again. Of course, we all know that New York lost (veteran Quarterback) Aaron Rodgers just three plays into the season, with an injury-ravaged Offensive Line making it nigh impossible for the offense to ever find their footing. So, with Rodgers (pictured below) turning forty-one in December, (General Manager) Joe Douglas and (Head Coach) Robert Saleh went about bolstering his protection plan, acquiring the services of (veteran Tackles) Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, while selecting (Penn State product) Olumiyiwa Fashanu eleventh overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft. However, there is still plenty of rust to remove from the four-time MVP, who never really got an opportunity to build a rapport with his supporting cast. As a result, this is a group that is still very much a work in progress. In the season opener in Santa Clara, the visitors struggled to move the football against the Niners, amassing just 266 total yards on fourteen first downs, possessing the football for just 21:20 and committing a pair of turnovers along the way. For his part, Rodgers looked every bit like a quarterback that hadn’t played in a calendar year, mustering just 167 yards, a touchdown, and an interception on 13-of-21 passes. Granted, the reigning NFC Champions are capable of doing that to anyone, with the schedule thankfully letting up a bit in last weekend’s trip to Nashville, where visitors bested the Titans in a 24-17 affair. Despite posting a similar volume of yardage (265), Saleh’s troops were more balanced offensively, rushing for 101 yards on twenty-four carries, allowing Rodgers to play in a more complementary fashion with 176 yards, two scores, and most importantly ZERO turnovers as the Jets’ defense got after Will Levis, logging and interception and strip-sack-fumble to turn the tide. However, this one was far from easy, folks, as New York was forced to fend off a late drive all the way down to their 14-yard line, with (young Safety) Tony Adams batting down a would-be equalizing touchdown in the middle of the end zone. In the end, we saw glimpses of the budding chemistry between Rodgers and (third-year Wideout) Garrett Wilson, who hauled in fifty-seven yards on four receptions, while (versatile Tailback) Breece Hall amassed 114 yards from scrimmage and a receiving score on twenty-one touches. Furthermore, (Rookie Tailback) Braelon Allen, the youngest player in the NFL, ripped off a 20-yard rushing touchdown late in the fourth quarter to put his side ahead for good. Defensively, (Sophomore Edge-Rusher) Will McDonald enjoyed a coming out party against Tennessee, sacking Levis three times, including the fumble that helped break the deadlock between the teams. It was far from a clean victory, but this is what these Jets are going to have to do in order to stack victories in the competitive AFC, particularly against what is statistically one of the weakest schedules in the league.
From a betting perspective, the Jets are 1-1 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 0.09 units. Dating back to last season, this is a team that has covered a mere THREE of their last thirteen games (3-9-1), though it should be noted that they spent much of that campaign an utterly decimated group. Upon kicking off their home opener, it should be noted that they have rarely enjoyed much home field advantage at MetLife Stadium, covering only one of their last five games in the Meadowlands, while being favored by the oddsmakers hasn’t served them much better (1-3-1 ATS). Under Saleh’s leadership, they are 21-31-1 versus the spread, including a miserable 4-14 when coming off a non-division affair and facing an opponent fresh off a straight-up loss, which is precisely the case tonight. Furthermore, they are 2-15 ATS versus an opponent coming off a non-division matchup, which is also the case tonight. Oh, and if that’s not enough, Thursday nights have been particularly vexing for Gang Green, who have failed to cover SIX consecutive midweek contests. Diving deeper into this series with their bitter rivals from Foxborough, New York managed to snap a 16-game losing streak to the Pats in that aforementioned 17-3 victory at Gillette Stadium. Hell, the Jets haven’t managed to defeat New England in front of their own fans since 2015. To give you an idea just how long ago that was in football terms, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick still had two more Super Bowls to win together, Todd Bowles was in his first season leading the franchise, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was the starting quarterback for a team that actually won ten games (they haven’t had a winning season or a 3,000-yard passer since). With all that being said, you kind of have to throw all those trends out of the proverbial window given how poor the quarterback play was for Gang Green. Sure, Rodgers has yet to prove that he’s anywhere near the surgical assassin that he was for nearly two decades in Green Bay, but even with diminished powers he has to be an upgrade over his long list of predecessors, right? As far as this matchup goes, the public seems to think so, with roughly 57% of all wagers placed up the spread taking the favorites, while 59% of the green has followed suit to the team clad in green. On the injury front, (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Haason Reddick continues to hold out and forfeit game checks after being traded to New York, while (fellow Edge-Rusher) Jermaine Johnson tore his Achilles and will miss the rest of the season. Furthermore, the defense could be without both (veteran Linebacker) C.J. Mosely (foot) and (young Cornerback) Michael Carter (ankle), who are listed as questionable for this quick turnaround. Looking ahead, the Jets will remain at MetLife to welcome the Broncos, before hitting the road for a trip to Minneapolis to face the surprising Vikings.