8:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Nebraska -7.5, Total: 42.5
Resurgent programs meet in a key BIG Ten clash, as the surging (No. 22) Nebraska Cornhuskers play host to the (No. 24) Illinois Fighting Illini under the bright Friday night lights of Memorial Stadium in Lincoln. Entering the fourth season of the Brett Bielema era in Champaign, Illinois (3-0, 0-0 in BIG Ten) look be a much-improved side over the one that slid to a disappointing 5-7 finish last Fall missing out on a bowl for the second time in three years. That outcome was particularly disappointing given how strong they looked in 2022; the Illini got off to a stellar 7-1 start thanks in large part to the top defense in the FBS, yielding a mere 12.9 points per game, en route to claiming an 8-5 record, which was good for their best finish since 2007 and their highest ranking (16) since that same season. Of course, Bielema had to pick up the pieces afterward, as (former Defensive Coordinator) Ryan Walters became Purdue’s leading man, while that fearsome unit that he presided over lost five starters including the entirety of an elite Secondary that featured THREE NFL draft choices. However, the most notable move that he made was the acquisition of (Ole Miss transfer) Luke Altmeyer, who showed glimpses of being the kind of playmaker at quarterback that has rarely been seen in Champaign. Altmeyer (pictured below) completed 64.8% of his throws for 1,883 yards on 7.0 yards per attempt, with thirteen touchdowns opposed to ten interceptions, while rushing for another 282 yards and three more scores on ninety-four carries. It appears that another season in (Offensive Coordinator) Barry Lunney’s system has done him a wealth of good, with the Junior showing improvement as a passer, completing an efficient 69.2% of his passes for 215.7 yards on 8.3 yards per attempt, six touchdowns and most importantly ZERO interceptions. In last weekend’s 30-9 drubbing of Central Michigan at Memorial Stadium, Altmeyer was cool, calm, and collected in amassing 242 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 19-of-29 passing, with (Senior Receiver) Pat Bryant hauling in both scores. The difference in this affair was that while the Illini were scoring touchdowns, (Defensive Coordinator) Aaron Henry’s unit held the Chippewas to just three field goals. Now in his second season with the program, Henry has seen a lot of growth from his charges on this side of the football; after allowing 29.4 points per game last Fall, Illinois has shipped just TWENTY-SIX points over the duration of three games, on 274.7 total yards, including a scant 151.7 yards through the air on 4.89 yards per attempt with NINE takeaways already, six of which are interceptions. (Junior Cornerback) Xavier Scott has snared three interceptions thus far with one returned to the house, while (Outside Linebacker) Gabe Jacas has been raising hell with a sack, three tackles for loss, and a forced fumble. All in all, this team should be better suited to deal with Nebraska than they were in last year’s ugly 20-7 defeat in Champaign (much more on that affair in a bit), though this matchup will represent their first road test as they venture outside the state of Illinois for the first time this season.
From a betting perspective, Illinois may be unbeaten straight-up, but they failed to cover the spread (-21.5) by the narrowest of margins in that victory over Central Michigan, dropping their net profit on the campaign to 0.82 units. Over the course of his coaching career, Bielema is 96-91-3 ATS between his stays with Wisconsin, Arkansas, and the Illini, while owning a middling 20-20 mark in that regard with the latter. They have covered nine out of twelve road games under his watch, while posting a 15-2 mark versus the spread against conference opponents. Furthermore, his troops have covered NINE consecutive contests as road underdogs of two or more points over the last three seasons, which is the case tonight. Keep an eye on the line, folks, as it has risen to ten points from an opening 8.5, for this is a school that has covered FIVE straight games as a road dog of 10.5 or more points. Looking at this series, Illinois has won three of the last four encounters, though saw a three-game winning streak come to an end in last year’s aforementioned 20-7 defeat in Champaign. Needless to say, this was an ugly affair for the home side, who could muster a season-low TWENTY-ONE rushing yards on nineteen carries, equating to a scant 1.1 yards per carry. Apart from a 46-yard touchdown from Altmeyer to Bryant, the offense did very little, with the quarterback completing 29-of-47 passes for 289 yards, that score and an interception. Those forty-seven pass attempts were by far and away the most of his career, as the ground game was nonexistent for the home side. The Illini are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five trips to Lincoln, earning a 26-9 victory when they last set foot on the grounds at Memorial Stadium two years ago. Interestingly, the underdog has covered four of the last five meetings between these schools. As such, the public likes the visitors and the points in this one, as roughly 61% of all bets wagered upon the spread favor Bielema & Co, with a comparable 60% of the total money changing hands siding with the team clad in orange. On the injury front, tight end depth figures to be shallow as (Senior) Carson Goda is dealing with an undisclosed issue that has him listed as questionable, which is notable given that (Eastern Michigan transfer) Cole Rusk is out for the season with a knee injury. Looking ahead, a trip to (No. 10) Penn State awaits in a rematch of last Fall’s ugly 30-13 loss in which Altmeyer tossed FIVE interceptions. After that, it’s the bye week followed by a visit from Walters and Purdue.
Meanwhile, one of most overused narratives in sports is “are they back?”, which applies to just about every former powerhouse program once they manage to build some noteworthy buzz for themselves. This, of course, brings us to Nebraska (3-0, 0-0 in BIG Ten), who are off to their best start since 2016, which was coincidentally the last time that they managed to even qualify for a bowl. Indeed, the Cornhuskers have been lost in the proverbial wilderness for quite some time now, owning a 28-52 record (.350) from 2017 to 2023, including a dismal 19-43 run (.306) in league play. However, there is reason to believe that the children of the corn have finally awakened from their slumber, folks, with the presence of two figures serving as the catalysts for their rebirth. First and foremost, (Head Coach) Matt Rhule is once again doing serious work in his second season on the job. Those of you who are familiar with Rhule’s work, will know that teams crafted by this habitual builder have consistently shown considerable growth in year #2. Between his previous stops at Temple and Baylor, along with this current run with the Huskers, the 49-year-old was 8-28 (.222) in his first year on the job with those respective schools, only to turn things around dramatically with a 47-23 (.671) mark in the following campaign. Needless to say, this guy knows what he’s doing, with the fact that he has managed to retain a wealth of talent in Nebraska (17 returning starters), while also enticing higher-profile recruits to arrive speaking volumes. And this, brings us to our other point, as Rhule managed to secure the signature of (True Freshman) Dylan Raiola, the second-ranked quarterback prospect in the country. As a result, the Cornhuskers finally have a passing game, which has led to many more points in Lincoln. Last season, the offense averaged a mere 18.0 points (123rd in FBS) on 313.8 total yards, including a scant 135.9 through the air on 6.23 yards per attempt, completing a pedestrian 52.1% along the way. Enter Raiola (pictured below), who has ignited the aerial attack, 223.3 yards per game on a healthier 8.4 yards per attempt and a far more efficient 73.8% passing, with five touchdowns opposed to one interception, leading to 34.0 points per game (45th in FBS). After avenging last season’s loss to Colorado, the Huskers dismantled Northern Iowa in last weekend’s 34-3 romp, which saw the hosts outgain their opponent 423-301 in total yards, including 281-162 through the air. Raiola completed 17-of-23 throws for 247 and a pair of touchdowns, though did suffer his first interception of his collegiate career. (Oregon transfer) Donte Dowdell and (Sophomore Tailback) each racked up 50+ rushing yards, while the latter hauled in three receptions for another forty-three yards, while (Texas transfer) Isaiah Neyor hauled in his second score of the campaign. Defensively, (second-year DC) Tony White continues his shift to a 3-3-5 base defense, which has yet to allow more than ten points this Fall, (with Senior Linebacker) John Bullock totaling nine tackles and a sack, while (Junior Safety) Malcolm Hartzog snagged his second interception of the season.
From a betting perspective, Nebraska is both 3-0 straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to net profit of 2.73 units. After covering the spread just three times last Fall, this is a team that has already matched that mark in nine fewer games. Over the course of his collegiate coaching career, Rhule is a stellar 63-42 ATS, including 16-16 as a home favorite, and 46-26 in conference play. Going back to his success after his first year on the job, the 2019 BIG XII Coach of the Year is now 44-22 ATS all-time following year #1, which equates to a win percentage of .666! So far in his time in Lincoln, he is 7-8 ATS, including 5-3 when favored at home and 3-6 versus BIG Ten opponents. The Cornhuskers are 5-5 versus the spread in their last ten games played at Memorial Stadium, while equaling that record in their past ten outings as favorite. Furthermore, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four contests after allowing fewer than twenty points, which is the case tonight, though are 0-3-1 in their past four conference affairs. With all that being said, this is a school that is a miserable 1-11 ATS versus opponents with revenge, which is the case in this matchup, as the Huskers went into Champaign and smothered the Illini last Fall. All-time, Nebraska leads the series 13-6-1, which includes NINE victories in their last thirteen meetings (7-6 ATS), though last year’s triumph snapped a three-game losing streak. With a combined five turnovers committed by the two teams, it was the visitor’s ground game that served as their vehicle to victory, outrushing the home side 158-21. The public doesn’t seem to remember much of that one, folks, as approximately 38% of all wagers placed upon the spread are favoring the Cornhuskers, with the money telling a similar story, as roughly 39% of all the green changing hands is betting on red. Looking ahead, Rhule & Co will leave Lincoln for the first time next weekend as they travel to West Lafayette for a date with Purdue, before returning to Memorial Stadium for their homecoming game against Rutgers.