7:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Tennessee -7.5, Total: 57.5
Bluebloods cross paths tonight for the first time in nearly a decade, as the (No. 15) Oklahoma Sooners get set to embark on their first-ever league affair as a member of the SEC, playing host to the (No. 6) Tennessee Volunteers in a matchup that will serve as a bittersweet homecoming for their head coach. Indeed, well before he arrived to lead this revival at Tennessee (3-0, 0-0 in SEC) and before he even became a coach, Josh Heupel enjoyed quite a run in Norman, where he quarterbacked his opponent tonight to a National Championship in 2000, while also finishing as the runner-up in Heisman balloting. From there, he worked his way up the coaching ranks with stops at Arizona (2005), Oklahoma (2006-2014), Utah State (2015), and Missouri (2016-2017), before getting his first head gig at Central Florida, where he rose to prominence in leading the Golden Knights to a birth in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl. Two years later, the Volunteers came calling, which has turned into a great marriage for both sides. Prior to his arrival, this was a program very much in disarray, coming off a brutal 3-7 campaign in which his predecessor was fired following an internal investigation that revealed a slew of recruiting violations. In fact, the Vols had enjoyed just five winning seasons between 2008 and 2020, posting a disappointing 36-70 (.339) record in conference play. Since then, Heupel is 30-12 (.714) in Knoxville, including 14-10 (.583) against SEC competition, with three bowls and back-to-back ranked finishes to his credit. With three wins in the books by a margin of 178 points, there is reason to believe that this current group could be his best yet. A big part of that is the emergence of (Redshirt Freshman) Nico Iamaleava, who is easily the most hyped quarterback on campus since Peyton Manning. Standing 6′-6″ with a strong arm and good mobility, Iamaleava (pictured below) has lived up to the lofty expectations thus far, completing an efficient 71.6% of his throws for 698 yards on a whopping 10.4 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions, rushing for another score and 102 more yards to boot. Surrounded by a wealth of talent and protected by one of the best Offensive Lines in the country, we wouldn’t be surprised if his name is among the list of finalists for the Heisman trophy. This unit caught fire early in last weekend’s 71-0 shutout of Kent State, scoring SIXTY-FIVE points in the first half alone. The hosts held HUGE advantages in a slew of categories, including total yards (740-112), first downs (32-8), and rushing yards (456-54), led by (Junior Tailback) Dylan Sampson, who barreled into the end zone on FOUR occasions, alongside (Redshirt Freshman) Deshawn Bishop ripped off a pair of scores of his own, with the tandem rushing for 100+ yards apiece. Iamaleava threw just sixteen passes (completing ten) for 173 yards and a touchdown, as his backups, Jake Merklinger and Gaston Moore played in the second half. It will be interesting to see if they are able to continue this momentum in their first true road venture of the campaign, particularly from a defensive perspective. (Defensive Coordinator) Tim Banks had just five returning starters, including a completely new Secondary to begin the season, but they have nonetheless performed well in yielding just THIRTEEN total points thus far, despite one interception to their name. Again, the Sooners represent a much steeper challenge than the competition that they’ve faced to this point, so tonight’s affair should go a long way towards revealing how far they have really come.
From a betting perspective, Tennessee is both 3-0 straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 2.73 units. Dating back to last season, this is a team that has covered each of their last four contests, though they are just 5-5 in that regard in their last ten trips away from Neyland Stadium. Since arriving in Knoxville, Heupel is 26-16 ATS, including 5-3 as a road favorite, and 11-13 versus conference opponents. The Volunteers have been a great play when favored by the oddsmakers, covering EIGHT of their last ten such outings, though are a middling 3-3 in their past six games as road favorites. In four all-time meetings, the Vols have beaten the Sooners just once, which also happened to be the first encounter between the schools, a 17-0 shutout way back in 1939. The last time that they hit the road to Norman, was back in 2014, when Tennessee trailed 27-10 late before a 100-yard interception return ended the game in emphatic fashion. With Oklahoma now in the SEC, it should be noted that Heupel has lost four straight games against ranked league adversaries by an average margin of 21.0 points. Furthermore, if they happen to struggle against the Sooners’ defense, it should also be noted that his teams are a dreadful 1-12 SU/ATS when they’ve been relegated below thirty points. Ironically, that would be the final season in which Heupel served as Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator, as (longtime Head Coach) Bob Stoops wanted to shift to a spread offense, while his lieutenant preferred to continue employing the air raid scheme. The playcaller would be relieved of his duties at the conclusion of the campaign. On the injury front, the Volunteers could be without (Sophomore Tailback) Cameron Seldon, who despite being expected to step into a larger role, has fallen down the depth chart after missing the last two games with an undisclosed malady. Looking ahead, Heupel & Co will enjoy the first of two bye weeks, before traveling to Fayetteville to face Arkansas on October 5th.
Meanwhile, after spending twenty-eight years in the BIG XII, Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0 in SEC) now begins their first venture into the treacherous waters of the Southeast Conference, where they will face what appears to be the toughest schedule in the country. Indeed, the Sooners will battle (No. 1) Texas, (No. 4) Alabama, (No. 5) Mississippi, (No. 16) LSU, and (No. 7) Missouri in the weeks that await following tonight’s visit from Tennessee, which will be one of just THREE conference home games. Seriously, that is FIVE of the top seven ranked teams in the country, folks, with all but two of them contested away from Norman. Indeed, this is quite the challenge for (Head Coach) Brent Venables, who is looking to build off a strong second season in which his charges improved by four games. However, their designs on storming the SEC took a major hit in the postseason when (former Quarterback) Dillon Gabriel opted to transfer to Oregon, forcing Venables and his staff to get (Sophomore) Jackson Arnold ready to go. Gabriel was nothing short of prolific in lone season at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, leading the conference in completion percentage (69.3%), passing yards (3,660), and touchdowns (30). However, the lure of (former Offensive Coordinator) Jeff Lebby and a reported $10 million proved to be too much for Venables to thwart. As for Arnold (pictured below), he got his first start in the 38-24 bowl loss to Arizona, completing 26-of-45 passes for 361 yards, a pair of touchdowns but also three interceptions. A year later and it is clear that he and the offense are a work in progress; Oklahoma has averaged 33.7 points (50th in FBS) on 325.3 total yards, which both represent significant decline from the previous campaign. In a narrow 16-12 nailbiter against Houston two weeks ago, the Sooners could muster just 249 total yards, their lowest output since October of 2022, with Arnold accounting for 202 yards from scrimmage, while the rushing attack was held to a scant seventy-five yards despite twenty-nine carries. And herein lies the issue, folks: the Offensive Line owns 114 career starts, but none of them actually played for at OU last Fall, meaning that they have yet to develop the chemistry needed to churn out yards wholesale as they have done so often in the past. Granted, they were better in last weekend’s 34-19 victory over Tulane, though still needed a late push to comfortably put the visitors away. After the Green Wave returned an interception of Arnold twenty-two yards to the house, cutting the deficit to five points, the young quarterback took matters into his own hands, driving the hosts downfield and responding with a 24-yard jaunt into the end zone. When it was all said and done, Oklahoma pummeled their opponent on the ground, with 182 yards and three scores on forty-five carries, NINETY-SEVEN of which coming from Arnold, who rushed for another score to boot, along with 169 yards and a touchdown on 18-of-29 passing. Venables can only hope that these first three games have been enough of a test for his young Quarterback before the schedule becomes hellish in the coming weeks.
From a betting perspective, Oklahoma may be 3-0 straight-up, but they are 2-1 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 0.82 units. Dating back to last season, they have covered four of their last ten outings overall, though are 7-3 versus the spread in their past ten games contested in Norman. During Venables’ tenure, this is a program that is 15-31-1 ATS, including 7-10-1 versus conference opposition. However, tonight’s affair will mark the first time in TWENTY-SEVEN years in which the Sooners have been a home underdog, with the last example being a date with Texas Tech back in 1998. In fact, to give you an idea just how rare this contest happens to be, the school hasn’t been a home dog of more than four points since 1978. Welcome to the SEC, indeed…. Furthermore, OU has failed to cover SIX straight home games in which they received points from the oddsmakers, while going 0-4-1 in their last five outings after amassing fewer than 170 passing yards in the previous game, which is the case tonight. Oh, and here is perhaps the most damning trend of all: they haven’t covered FIVE of their last six meetings against the competition residing in their new conference, which only underscores the issue with that daunting schedule that we mentioned earlier. Looking at this particular matchup, Oklahoma owns a 3-1 record in the all-time series, winning their most recent encounter, a 31-24 classic at Neyland Stadium back in 2015. Trailing 17-3 at halftime, (former QB) Baker Mayfield authored a whirlwind comeback with fourteen unanswered points in the fourth quarter to force overtime, where his third touchdown of the day sealed the deal in the second extra period. Looking ahead, the Sooners will head to the Plains to battle Auburn before getting ready to face off against their bitter rivals, the top-ranked Texas Longhorns, in the latest edition of the Red River Rivalry.