4:25 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Ravens -1.0, Total: 48.5
A pair of contenders desperate to turn around early struggles clash in North Texas, as the winless Baltimore Ravens look to get back on track against the Dallas Cowboys, who are left to pick up the pieces following an embarrassing home opener. A year after strongarming their way to a stellar 13-4 finish and the number one overall seed in the AFC, the Ravens (0-2, T-3rd in AFC North) were a trendy pick to finish the job and represent the conference in Super Bowl LIX, thanks in large part to the exploits of an elite defense along with (reigning MVP) Lamar Jackson. However, Baltimore has been slow to get out of the proverbial gate, beginning a campaign with back-to-back defeats for the first time since 2015. So, what in the name of Ray Lewis is going on in Charm City, you ask? Well, this is a team that was hit hard in free agency and other avenues, with fourteen different players now suiting up for other franchises, many of which were starters. Veterans such as Jadeveon Clowney, Kevin Zeitler, Geno Stone, Patrick Queen, Gus Edwards, Morgan Moses, John Simpson, and J.K. Dobbins are just a few of the names that flew the coop. Ditto for (former Defensive Coordinator) Mike Macdonald, who was the architect of a unit that ranked first in both points allowed (16.5) and takeaways (31), parlaying that performance into being named Head Coach of the Seahawks. As a result, (longtime Head Coach) John Harbaugh and (General Manager) Eric DeCosta had plenty of holes to fill. (Inside Linebackers Coach) Zach Orr was promoted to defensive playcaller, while the club turned to younger, fresh faces to replace the outgoing flock of veterans. With three new starters on the Offensive Line, all of which are aged twenty-five years or younger, there has been a bit of grace period in terms of building the requisite chemistry and continuity expected in to thrive in the trenches. This was really the only position group that saw extensive action in the preseason, which was a telltale sign that Harbaugh and his coaching staff felt that they needed as much work as possible. With that being said, the offense has had little trouble moving the football, churning out an NFL-best 417.5 yards per game thus far, though they’ve been slightly above average in terms of converting on third down (40.0%, 13th Overall), while coming in below the bar in the red zone (42.9%, 18th Overall). The bigger issue has been the defense and their continued inability to hold onto sizable leads. Under Orr’s direction, they’ve shipped 26.5 points (28th Overall) despite only yielding 306.5 total yards (15th Overall). Again, the issue has been situational football, folks, as this unit has struggled to get off the field on third down (38.1%, 20th Overall), while allowing a touchdown in 50.0% of their opponents’ trips into the red zone (19th Overall). Macdonald did a tremendous job of manufacturing the pass rush and camouflaging coverages during his two years calling plays, and it remains to be seen if Orr can do the same. In last weekend’s stunning 26-23 loss at home to the Raiders, the hosts led 23-13 after a direct snap to (two-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry early in the fourth quarter. However, their inability to close resurfaced as Las Vegas responded with seventeen unanswered points, while the Ravens went three-and-out on their next two possessions, before ultimately running out of time just shy of midfield. It was a mixed bag for Jackson (pictured below), who amassed 247 yards and a touchdown on 21-of-34 passing, though was intercepted late in the third quarter, while being largely contained as runner (45 yards on 5 carries). Henry totaled eighty-four yards and that score on eighteen carries, while (Sophomore Receiver) Zay Flowers saw plenty of work with seven catches on eleven targets for ninety-one yards and a touchdown. Again, it was the capitulation in the second half that did them in though; from the midway point of the third quarter, the blackbirds were outscored 20-7 and outgained 203-135 with a costly interception fueling their downfall. That defeat marked the tenth time in the last five seasons in which Baltimore had lost a game in which they had led by at least six points in the fourth quarter, the most in the NFL during that period. Furthermore, it also marked the ninth time that Harbaugh had lost when leading by ten or more point in the final stanza, the most of any head coach dating back to 1991. In the words of Al Pacino in the classic film Glengarry Glenross, “Always be closing!”
From a betting perspective, the Ravens are winless both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 2.0 units. Dating back to last season, this is a team that has failed to cover four of their last five outings, though it should be noted that two of those losses came at the hands of the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Chiefs. Now in his seventeenth season in Baltimore, Harbaugh is a stellar 146-125 versus the spread, and it should be noted that it has been since the conclusion of the 2022 campaign that he his troops have failed to cover three games in a row. They have however, been road warriors, winning and covering seven of their last ten games away from M&T Bank Stadium, while covering each of their last seven outings on the road when coming off a straight-up defeat as a favorite, which is the case today. Furthermore, they are 8-0 in their last eight contests when fresh off a SU/ATS loss and are facing a team that is .500 or better. There are also some trends regarding Jackson that need to be addressed. The 27-year-old is 13-5 SU and 15-2-1 ATS over the course of his career either as a favorite or underdog of fewer than three points, including a staggering 9-0-1 run over the last ten such affairs. Oh, and he has absolutely OWNED the NFC since he was drafted back in 2018, posting a 20-3 SU record against such opponents. Looking at this particular matchup, the Ravens are 5-1 all-time against the Cowboys, including 1-1 in Arlington. When these teams last met back in 2020, Baltimore hammered an injury-riddled side in a 34-17 victory, with a dominant performance from Jackson, who completed 12-of-17 passes for 107 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another ninety-four yards and one more score on thirteen carries. The public clearly remembers this, as approximately 66% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with the visitors, though the total money changing hands tells a different story (40%). On the injury front, (Left Tackle) Ronnie Stanley (ankle), (Edge-Rusher) Kyle Van Noy (eye/groin), (Safety) Kyle Hamilton (back), and (Cornerback) Nate Wiggins (neck) are all listed as questionable to participate in this trip to Dallas. Looking ahead, it’s not getting any easier for the Ravens, who will return to the big crabcake to host the Bills next weekend in primetime, before hitting the road once more to battle an equally desperate division rival, the Bengals.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys (1-1 T-1st in NFC East) are also coming off a disappointing home opener, though we’ll get back to that debacle in Arlington in just a bit. Coming into this campaign, the pressure was once again on Dallas to do what they haven’t managed to do in nearly three decades: win the franchise’s sixth Lombardi Trophy. Despite their success in the regular season (three consecutive 12-win campaigns), (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy has yet to parlay that into postseason success; Big D has come up rather small in the playoffs during this stretch, posting a 1-3 record in advancing no further than an appearance in the Divisional Round two years ago. To the surprise of many, McCarthy has been afforded the opportunity to coach for the duration of his contract, which creates the dreaded lame duck scenario for the 60-year-old. After all, (longtime Owner) Jerry Jones opened up the check book and paid out LUCRATIVE contracts to the star tandem of (All-Pro Wideout) CeeDee Lamb and (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Dak Prescott, totaling a whopping $376 million over the next four years, including $331 guaranteed. As for McCarthy? Only the good ol’ vote of confidence. So, with all that in mind, how have the Cowboys responded, you ask? Well, they absolutely THRASHED the Browns in a 33-17 affair in Northern Ohio, with the new-look defense now under the direction of (Defensive Coordinator) Mike Zimmer relegating the hosts to a scant 230 total yards with a pair of takeaways. Unfortunately, the good times did NOT continue as they returned home to AT&T Stadium where they hosted a Saints side that utterly eviscerated them in last weekend’s 44-19 defeat. Needless to say, this was a stunning performance as New Orleans scored touchdowns on their first SIX possessions, outgaining the hosts 380-272. Zimmer’s unit was gashed for a slew of huge plays, including touchdowns of seventy and fifty-seven yards, while also falling victim to lengthy drives of 10+ plays/70 yards. Apart from a 65-yard touchdown strike midway through the second quarter, the duo of Prescott and Lamb (pictured together below) was kept largely in check, with the former completing 27-of-39 passes for 293 yards and a pair of interceptions and three sacks, while the latter reeled in four catches on seven targets for ninety yards. When it was all said done, Dallas had shipped an untenable 432 total yards on twenty-four first downs, including 190 on the ground, while only forcing eight third down opportunities, which should give you an idea on what kind of day it was for Zimmer’s troops. The biggest issue was that they really struggled to apply pressure to Derek Carr, who despite being pressured on nine occasions was unfazed in hitting the turf just once. With the absence of (All-Pro Cornerback) DaRon Band (9 interceptions and 5 pick-6’s last year) due to injury and (former All-Pro Corner) Trevon Diggs working his way back from a torn ACL, the Secondary has been susceptible to big plays downfield, while it also certainly hasn’t helped that they have been a sieve in the red zone through these two games, yielding touchdowns on six of their opponents’ seven opportunities (85.7%)
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys are both 1-1 straight-up and against the spread, for a net loss of 0.09 units, with just two covers in their last eight games dating back to last season. With last Sunday’s defeat, they have now failed to cover three consecutive contests at AT&T Stadium since 2023, which is their longest such streak since McCarthy’s first year in charge (2020). Speaking of the big fella, since he arrived in Arlington, his troops are 40-33 versus the spread, though have struggled mightily as an underdog, posting a 1-6 record in their last seven outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. However, Dallas has been very strong against AFC opposition early in the season, covering SIXTEEN of their last twenty-two interconference affairs played in the month of September, including NINE out of eleven as a dog. Furthermore, they have generally bounced back well after a loss as SU/ATS favorites, with seven straight covers in such scenarios, which is the case this evening. With that being said, the ‘Boys are also 3-16 ATS when coming off a non-conference home game and facing an opponent fresh off a SU/ATS loss, which is also the case today. Oh, McCarthy & Co have failed to over four in a row after shipping 35+ points. Looking at this particular matchup, the Cowboys are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in six all-time meetings with the Ravens, including the most recent, being that aforementioned 34-17 defeat at M&T Bank Stadium back in 2020. Of course, McCarthy’s first season in Big D was a disappointment ravaged by injuries, with this affair being no different, as Prescott was sidelined for the bulk of the campaign after breaking his ankle in Week Five. Interestingly, the public seems to be leaving away from Dallas, with roughly 36% of all wagers placed upon the spread taking the points in what is essentially a pick ’em. The money though, tells a different story, folks, with approximately 58% of all money changing hands siding with America’s Team. On the injury front, Bland won’t be back in action until next month, while the interior of the Defensive Line could be a lot lighter with (Tackles) Mazi Smith (back) and Jordan Phillips (wrist) both listed as questionable to participate in this evening’s tilt. Looking ahead, it will be a short turnaround for the Cowboys, who will be making their annual pilgrimage to the Meadowlands to battle their (bitter rivals) the Giants next Thursday, before keeping their show on the road for an encounter with the Steelers, rekindling a classic interconference rivalry from the 70’s.