7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Bills -5.5, Total: 45.5
A pair of teams traveling in opposite directions clash in primetime, as the winless Jacksonville Jaguars are desperate to get off the schneid as they travel to Western New York to meet the Buffalo Bills, who have thus exceeded expectations through two games. One of the most curious teams in the NFL over the past year and some change, the Jaguars (0-2, T-2nd in 2nd in AFC South) have gotten off to a surprisingly sluggish start, though for those of us who have been watching this team in the last twelve months, this all looks like a continuation of last season’s second-half collapse. After winning their first division crown since 2017 in (Head Coach) Doug Pederson’s first year on the job, Jacksonville was tabbed by many to repeat in 2023, holding serve for the most part with a strong 6-2 start. Unfortunately, they couldn’t keep the momentum rolling as they proceeded to drop six of their final nine games following their bye, as injuries to a slew of key personnel decimated the roster. With an offseason to ponder what wrong and a clean bill of health, the Jags appeared to be primed to bounce back this Fall, but that simply hasn’t been the case. So, what in the name of Mark Brunell is going on down in North Florida, you ask? Well, (young Quarterback) Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the offense haven’t found much of a rhythm, averaging just 15.0 points (26th Overall) on 318.5 total yards (22nd Overall), with a mere 191.0 coming through the air (25th Overall) on 5.78 net yards per attempt (20th Overall). You would think that they wouldn’t have had a problem sustaining drives given their relative success rushing the ball (127.5), yet converting a dismal 26.3% of their third downs (28th Overall) has been the reality. This comes back to Lawrence (pictured below alongside Pederson), who just doesn’t look quite right. The former number one overall pick has completed just 51.0% of throws thus far, while being subject to persistent pressure; the 24-year-old has been sacked seven times and pressured on a career-high 23.0% of his drop-backs, which is 4.9 percentage points higher than last season. On third down, he has connected on just 3-of-14 attempts (21.4%), registering 5.0 yards per attempt. Sure, it hasn’t helped that he’s faced some tough defenses thus far, including that of the Browns, who really did a number on the Jaguars in last weekend’s 18-13 defeat at TIAA Bank Stadium. In what was very much a defensive struggle, the hosts managed to cut the deficit to three points midway through the fourth quarter following a 25-yard field goal courtesy of (Rookie Kicker) Cam Little, though with the ball in his hands and an opportunity to engineer a game-winning drive, Lawrence fell woefully short. Backed up to his 2-yard line with less than two minutes to play, the fourth-year passer was sacked in the end zone for a safety, stretching the visitor’s lead to five points. When it was all said and done, Jacksonville amassed 323 total yards, but held the ball for a brief 25:37 of game time despite rushing for 127 yards. This was a sloppy affair, folks, with nineteen penalties called for 152 combined yards between the two teams, six for fifty-two being charged to the hosts. Lawrence completed just fourteen of thirty passes for 220 yards, suffering four sacks, seven hits, and nine pressures, playing a role in six off-target throws (21.4%). This is also becoming a theme for the QB, who has shipped thirteen bad throws already, equating to an ugly rate of 27.1%, nearly ten points higher than the previous season.
From a betting perspective, the Jaguars may be winless straight-up, but they have managed to split their first two games against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 0.09 units. As we covered earlier, this is a team that has been struggling for quite some time, particularly when it comes to the spread; Jacksonville has covered just two of their last eight outings dating back to last December. Under the leadership of Pederson, they are 20-18 versus the spread, including 7-3 in their past three trips away from Northern Florida. In fact, they have covered SIX of their past seven road games as an underdog, with a 3-0-1 mark ATS when receiving between 3.5-10.0 points away from home. However, the Jags are 1-8 ATS in the month of September when coming a SU/ATS defeat versus a non-division opponent, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, these cats have taken four of the last six meetings dating back to 2015, though it should be noted that the home side has won all but one of those encounters. When they met last Fall, a 25-20 affair in London, the Jaguars (+4.5) raced out to an 11-0 lead that they would not relinquish, thanks in large part to the exploits of Lawrence and Etienne. The former carved up Buffalo’s defense for 315 yards and a touchdown on 25-of-37 passing, while rushing for another thirty-one yards to boot (though he did fumble THREE times), with the latter amassing 184 yards from scrimmage and a pair of scores, including 35-yard jaunt into the end zone late in the fourth quarter to put the game to rest. Jacksonville met very little resistance moving the football, totaling 474 yards of offense on TWENTY-NINE first downs, converting 10-of-18 attempts on third down, and possessing the pigskin for a season-high 38:12. With that in mind, the public doesn’t appear to have a sharp memory as only 27% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with the Jags, though there has been a more even disparity in money (43%) that has changed hands thus far. On the injury front, (Pro-Bowl Tight End) Evan Engram, who strained his hamstring during a pregame warmup before last weekend’s loss to Cleveland, has been ruled out for this contest, while the same can be said for (young Cornerback) Tyson Campbell (hamstring). Furthermore, (veteran Safety) Darnell Savage (quadricep) and (backup Tailback) Tank Bigsby (shoulder) are both listed as questionable. Looking ahead, the Jags will remain on the road for the first of two dates with their AFC South rivals, traveling to Indianapolis to face the Colts before returning to TIAA Bank Stadium a week later to host the Texans, who already hold a sizable lead in the division.
Meanwhile, believe it or not, the Bills (2-0, 1st in AFC East) actually came into this season flying under the radar, which is odd for a team that has now won four consecutive division crowns. Then again, this is a group that was hit hard in the offseason with an exodus of talent leaving West New York, whether it be in free agency or via trade. Indeed, the supporting cast around (two-time Pro-Bowler) Josh Allen was the biggest story, with the likes of (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Stefon Diggs traded away to Houston, while (fellow Receiver) Gabe Davis signing with the Jags as a free agent. However, it appears that not bearing the weight of heavy expectations has been a positive for Buffalo, who have nonetheless raced out to an unbeaten start. So, how have they done it, you ask? Well, (Head Coach) Sean McDermott is winning games in the manner that you would expect a defensive coach to prefer, taking care of the football and forcing turnovers. Despite averaging just 304.5 total yards, the Bills have certainly made the most of it in averaging 32.5 points (3rd Overall) due in large part to logging FOUR takeaways, one of which was a 31-yard interception return in last week’s 31-10 drubbing of the Dolphins. Through two games, Allen (pictured below) has completed a surgical 73.8% of his throws for an average of 185.5 yards on a healthy 8.20 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and no picks (which is HUGE given that he led the NFL in that dubious category a year ago), while continuing to factor heavily into the ground game, particularly in the red zone where he shares the team lead with a pair of scores. The 28-year-old has done an excellent job of sharing the wealth, distributing the ball evenly amongst a retooled receiving corps, with seven different targets hauling in multiple catches, (emerging Wideout) Khalil Shakir being chief among them with eight receptions for ninety-six yards and a touchdown. In that aforementioned midweek trip to South Beach, he and his teammates got off to a quick start, receiving excellent field position following an interception of Tua Tagovailoa, with (young Tailback) James Cook hauling in a 17-yard score from Allen, the first of three touchdowns scored by the third-year RB in the first half alone. For all intents and purposes, Cook cooked Miami, amassing ninety-five yards from scrimmage on just twelve touches, parlaying to a healthy 7.9 yards per touch. As for Allen, he completed an efficient 13-of-19 passes for 139 yards and that early strike to Cook, reaping the benefits of the big plays that his defense made. The visitors racked up three takeaways, including a pair of interceptions from (third-year Cornerback) Ja’Marcus Ingram, who was responsible for the pick-6, while the rest of his unit totaled two sacks, five QB hits, and as many pressures, all the while stopping the Fins on four of their five attempts on fourth down.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be undefeated straight-up, but they’ve thus far split their first two games against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 0.09 units. This is a team really that struggled in that latter regard last season, posting an 8-10-1 record ATS. Under the direction of McDermott, they are 65-55-7 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2017, though they have covered just three of their last seven contests in Orchard Park and four of their last ten as a favorite. In fact, they have failed to cover FIVE straight home games against a sub-.500 opponent. Furthermore, they’ve generally gotten off to strong starts before the weather turns in Western New York, covering EIGHT of their last nine home games in the month of September. They are also 12-2 ATS when coming off a road game, while posting a 16-3 mark off a straight-up win and facing a winless opponent, all in this particular month. Lastly, Buffalo is 8-1 ATS with revenge versus non-divisional opposition with a losing record, which is precisely the case tonight. Speaking of revenge, when these teams last met, Allen & Co came up short in a terribly uneven 25-20 affair across the pond. For those who have lamented the quarterback’s workload, this one could serve as exhibit A; Allen accounted for all but FIFTEEN of his team’s total yardage, completing 27-of-40 passes for 359 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another score. It was certainly a one-dimensional effort for the Bills, who could muster a mere twenty-nine yards on fourteen carries, which is a major reason that they could only possess the ball for 21:48 of game time. It should also be noted that (former Receivers) Diggs and Davis combined for fourteen receptions, 221yards and a touchdown apiece. Looking further into this particular matchup, the public doesn’t appear to care much about that result, as a majority 73% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with the home side, while approximately 57% of all the money thus far has followed suit to Highmark Stadium. On the injury front, (Cornerback) Taron Johnson (arm) and (Linebacker) Terrel Bernard (pectoral) will both miss tonight’s tilt with various ailments. Looking ahead, the road will be Buffalo’s home for the foreseeable future as a three-game road trip awaits, with stops in Baltimore, Houston, and the Jets under the bright lights of Monday Night Football.