8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Cowboys -4.5, Total: 45.5
Week Four kicks off with a renewal of acquaintances between bitter division rivals, as the Dallas Cowboys make their annual pilgrimage to the Meadowlands desperate to get back on track, while the New York Giants look to create some rare momentum following their first victory of the campaign. Three weeks into the 2024 regular season, it is safe to say that this isn’t how the Cowboys (1-2, T-2nd in NFC East) expected it would start, dropping each of their first two games at home in very disappointing fashion. Indeed, after disposing of Cleveland on the road with relative ease in the opener (33-17), Dallas has been outscored 72-44 in the ensuing two contests at AT&T Stadium against the likes of New Orleans and Baltimore. After three consecutive 12-5 campaigns and getting the lucrative contract extensions of (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Dak Prescott and (All-Pro Wideout) CeeDee Lamb over the proverbial finish line before opening weekend, the feeling was that this was a team that had taken care of the distractions that could cloud their focus of bringing the franchise its elusive sixth Lombardi Trophy, which would be their first in nearly three decades. However, after watching the past two weeks unfold, it is hard to envision this group coming remotely close to achieving that goal. So, what in the name of Roger Staubach is going on in Big D, you ask? Well, this appears to be a woefully unbalanced team thus far, with the ground game barely existent, while the defense has been a sieve following the transition from one coordinator to the other. Let’s start on the offensive side of the football, shall we? Apart from Prescott and Lamb (pictured together below) carrying the most prolific passing game in the league at 285.7 yards, the rushing attack simply hasn’t been there. Then again, their decline in this regard has been headed in this direction for a few years now; in 2022, they churned out 135.2 yards per contest (9th Overall), only to drop to 112.9 last season (14th Overall), and now appear to be bottoming out at just 73.7 yards (30th Overall). Playcalling and personnel are to blame here, with a focus on the pass and an exodus of Linemen and Tailbacks compounding matters. As for the defense, replacing (former DC) Dan Quinn with Mike Zimmer seems to have been a big mistake on the part of (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy, who is coaching out the final year of his contract. There is a growing narrative that Zimmer’s ideas are antiquated by today’s standards, with the numbers suggesting so; Dallas has been gashed for 372.7 total yards (28th Overall), including an NFL-worst 185.7 yards versus the run on 5.4 yards per carry (32nd Overall), which has played a sizeable role in their woeful red zone defense (90.0%). Sure, there have been absences here, folks, including that of (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) DaRon Bland and (Defensive Tackle) Mazi Smith, but that doesn’t explain all the flaws that they have displayed at this point. In last weekend’s 28-25 loss to the Ravens, they were manhandled through three quarters, trailing 28-6 before Prescott ignited a rally that ultimately came up frustratingly short. Through three periods of play, the hosts were outgained 349 to 217, shipping four drives of 70+ yards during that span while they could muster more than forty yards just once. When it was all said done, McCarthy’s troops were outrushed 274-51 and as such only possessed the football for 25:15, with the visitors facing just nine third downs on the evening, which should give you an idea as to what kind of game this really was. Hell, if not for a whopping thirteen penalties for 105 lost yards, Baltimore likely wouldn’t have nearly collapsed in the final stanza for a second consecutive week. Prescott totaled 379 yards and three touchdowns (1 rushing) on 28-of-51 passing, though a large sum of that yardage came in the second half, while Lamb hauled in four receptions on seven targets for sixty-seven yards and a lost fumble. (Young Tight End) Jake Ferguson was the most prolific pass-catcher with six catches on eleven targets for ninety-five yards. Defensively, Zimmer’s unit struggled mightily to stop the ground game, let alone contain Lamar Jackson, managing just one QB hit, one hurry, and two pressures, all of which came from (All-Pro Edge-Rusher) Micah Parsons. Needless to say, there is a lot that needs to be figured out and not a lot of time do so, particularly given this short turnaround. Consider this, folks: tonight marks the first time in franchise history in which Dallas will be playing a road game off three days of rest. Every other team in the NFL has done so at least six times.
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys are both 1-2 straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 1.09 units. During his tenure in Dallas, McCarthy is 40-34 versus the spread, including just three covers in their last ten games overall, and five of their past ten ventures away from Arlington. With that being said, he is 6-0 as a road favorite when coming off a SU/ATS defeat, which is the case tonight. Furthermore, this is a team that is 22-5 ATS versus division opponents coming off the role of an underdog, including 10-4 when said game is contested away from AT&T Stadium. Lastly, Big D is a commanding 25-3 as division favorites of two or more points. Looking at this particular matchup, the Cowboys have absolutely OWNED the Giants, posting an all-time series advantage of 75-47-2 SU, including NINE victories in their last ten encounters (7-3 ATS). McCarthy’s troops swept the season series last Fall by an aggregate score of 89-17, including a lopsided 40-0 shutout in the season opener at MetLife Stadium. Dallas has taken seven of the past ten affairs in the Meadowlands straight-up, including a current streak of three straight covers. Tonight’s line opened at 4.5 points, only to be driven up to 6.0 by the public, with approximately 83% of all wagers placed upon the spread and roughly 90% of the overall money siding with Big D. Over the course of his career, Prescott has definitely had Big Blue’s number, winning twelve out of fourteen meetings, completing 64.3% of his throws for an average of 263.9 yards per game on a healthy 7.78 net yards per attempt, with twenty-seven touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions, adding a pair of rushing scores to boot. He’s also been strong in these midweek affairs (10-5), owning a completion percentage of 68.1%, with 4,031 yards on 7.12 net yards per attempt, twenty-nine total touchdowns and thirteen turnovers. On the injury front, we touched upon Bland’s absence as he has been placed on Injured Reserve and will miss at least one more week of action due to that foot, though the defense could also be without the services of (veteran Defensive End) DeMarcus Lawrence, who has been limited throughout the truncated week of practice due to shoulder/back soreness. This isn’t good news for a defensive front that has been eviscerated in recent weeks, with (fellow Linemen) Jordan Phillips and the aforementioned Smith slowed by various maladies as well. Looking ahead, the Cowboys will rekindle a classic rivalry from the 1970s next weekend as they travel to Western Pennsylvania to battle the Steelers, harkening back to their classic encounters in Super Bowls X and XIII.
Meanwhile, if you want proof that all 1-2 records are not the same, then look no further than the Giants (1-2, T-2nd in NFC East), who are trending upward after earning their first victory of the campaign last weekend. After getting embarrassed in their home opener against the (unbeaten) Vikings (28-6), they very nearly scored their first dub in their annual pilgrimage to Landover, losing a narrow 21-18 affair to the Commanders. Indeed, New York would have been in position to win a sixth straight game at FedEx Field, but were ultimately thwarted due to an untimely injury to (veteran Kicker) Graham Gano, which had had a seriously adverse effect on the affair; without a reliable kicker, the visitors were forced to trot out their punter, Jamie Gillan, to attempt an extra point, which he promptly missed, which in turn was enough for (Head Coach) Brian Daboll, who opted to go for two-point conversions following each of their next two touchdowns, along with a pair of fourth downs despite being in what under normal circumstances would have been reasonable field goal range. By our estimate, they left six points on the board, which would have been enough to win. Rather than rage at their misfortune, Big Blue took out their frustrations a week later on the Browns in a 21-15 victory that wasn’t as close as that final score would indicate. The Giants dominated long stretches of this one, folks, leading 21-7 until the hosts managed a consolation touchdown in the fourth quarter. The visitors held a 340-217 edge in total yards, and a 112-69 advantage on the ground, which allowed them to possess the football for a commanding 33:56. Granted, this was a sloppy game for both sides, who each lost a pair of fumbles and could convert just 4-of-14 third downs. However, there were two major takeaways from this trip to Northern Ohio. First, the defense, now directed by (Defensive Coordinator) Shane Bowen, really strutted their stuff, relinquishing the franchise’s fewest yards since 2021, and living rent free in the opposing backfield with EIGHT sacks, SIXTEEN hits of the Quarterback, and SEVENTEEN pressures. (Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle) Dexter Lawrence accounted for two sacks and four of said pressures, as NINE different players factored into that sack total. However, the other takeaway was more noteworthy, as (Rookie Wideout) Malik Nabers has officially arrived. Drafted sixth overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft, there have been sizable expectations heaped upon the shoulders of the LSU product, who has more or less lived up to the hype thus far. Nabers (pictured below) has reeled in twenty-three receptions on thirty-seven targets for 271 yards and three touchdowns, two of which coming in last weekend’s victory. With the game squared away at 7-7 late in the second quarter, the 21-year-old hauled in a short touchdown pass from (veteran Quarterback) Daniel Jones to break the deadlock. Surprisingly, the Browns would fumble the ball away five plays later, setting up yet another opportunity for Jones to find his new weapon, hitting Nabers in the corner of the end zone just before halftime. Needless to say, this is a welcome turn of events for an offense that is showing signs of awakening from a long sleep. Daboll and (General Manager) Joe Schoen have gone to great lengths to improve the supporting cast around Jones, bolstering the Offensive Line and adding playmakers in the passing game. Make no mistake, this is a decisive campaign for not just Jones, but likely for Daboll and Schoen as well, so the emergence of Nabers can only be met with satisfaction and optimism. After all, this is a franchise that has made the playoffs just twice since winning Super Bowl XLVI, while going thirteen years without a division crown, the longest current run of the four teams within the NFC East.
From a betting perspective, the Giants are also 1-2 straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 1.09 units thus far. Under the leadership of Daboll, this is a team that is 23-15-1 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2022, including 7-3 in their last ten games overall, 6-1 against an opponent coming off back-to-back SU losses, 9-2 versus an opponent fresh off a SU non-division defeat, and 6-3-1 in their past ten outings contested at MetLife Stadium. With that last bit in mind, New York has covered FOUR straight contests as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 points, which is the case tonight. Granted, Big Blue closed out last season with a stunning FIVE outright victories as a dog, though is just 1-2 in such a role this Fall. Furthermore, this is a team that is 10-2 ATS as a dog against division opposition when coming off a road win, which is also the case tonight. However, that hasn’t necessarily extended to their rivalry with Dallas, whom they are 1-4 against when receiving points in the Meadowlands. In fact, the Giants have failed to cover THIRTEEN of their last fourteen meetings with the Cowboys, a miserable stretch that has seen four different head coaches try and fail for them. Of course, Jones has been the whipping boy in many of those affairs, with the 27-year-old owning a 1-7 record in this rivalry, completing 58.8% of his throws for an average of just 163.0 yards on a dismal 5.29 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns in comparison to TEN total turnovers. This has been his biggest issue, folks, for since he was drafted back in 2019, no quarterback in the NFL has been responsible for more giveaways than Jones, with FORTY-TWO interceptions and TWENTY-FOUR lost fumbles staining his ledger. Interestingly, forty-two of those turnovers have occurred at MetLife Stadium, where he owns a career 27-28 TD-INT ratio (opposed to 39-14 on the road), while six turnovers have happened on Thursdays where he has yet to win in five starts. As we covered earlier, the public seems to be keenly aware of his plight, which is likely why only 17% of all wagers placed upon the spread are taking the points tonight, with an even lesser share of all money (10%) siding with the hosts. On the injury front, the aforementioned Gano has landed on Injured Reserve due to a strained hamstring, while (Center) Andrew Schlottman (lower leg) and Gunner Olszewski (groin) are sitting beside him with various maladies. Furthermore, Lawrence has been dealing with a nagging foot, while (veteran Cornerback) Adoree’ Jackson (calf) and (young Wideout) Darius Slayton (thumb) are all listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s contest. Looking ahead, the Giants will make the long trip across country to face the unbeaten Seahawks, before returning home to host the winless Bengals in two weeks.