7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Miami -17.5, Total: 54.0
Conference play begins in earnest for bitter foes in this primetime showdown from South Beach, as the struggling Virginia Tech Hokies look to make a statement with an upset of the surging (No. 7) Miami Hurricanes, who are off to their best start in seven years. Coming into this Fall, there was plenty of optimism that Virginia Tech (2-2, 0-0 in ACC) had turned the corner following a strong finish to the 2023 campaign, the second under (Head Coach) Brent Pry. After spending the previous decade cultivating the defense at Penn State, the 54-year-old was primed to step into a head coaching position of his own, with the Hokies tabbing him to turn around a proud program that fell on hard times under his predecessor; Va Tech suffered three losing seasons during the four-year span that preceded his arrival. Following a 3-8 finish in his first run through Blacksburg, Pry’s troops went on to win six of their final nine contests after a sluggish 1-3 start to earn a spot in the Military Bowl, where they hammered Tulane in a 41-20 affair, which was their first bowl triumph since 2016. Armed with nineteen returning starters, including everyone on the offensive side of the football, there was talk of these turkeys perhaps evolving into a dark horse challenger within the Atlantic Coast Conference. Unfortunately, that simply hasn’t been the case as they have only managed a split through four games. So, what in the name of Frank Beamer is going on at Lane Stadium, you ask? Well, this is a team that has yet to really find their rhythm offensively or defensively. (Junior Quarterback) Kyron Drones was a dynamic dual-threat last season, throwing for 2,085 yards, seventeen touchdowns and just three interceptions, while also serving as the team’s second-leading rusher with 818 more yards and another five scores. Indeed, the Baylor transfer lit a fire for a unit that erupted for a 43.0 points per game over the final four outings, while setting a school record with 151 passes without throwing a pick. However, while he has remained a factor in the run game, he hasn’t been nearly as efficient throwing the pigskin, with nearly as many interceptions (3) as touchdowns (4). As a result, the defense has been put in some less than advantageous positions, yielding 22.8 points (68th in FBS) on 341.0 total yards, including 181.0 versus the run, which is over thirty more yards than they relinquished a year ago. These flaws were on full display in last weekend’s disappointing 26-23 defeat at home to Rutgers, which saw Pry’s charges fail to overcome a slow and sloppy start. Perhaps if this game continued for another quarter then the Hokies may have come out on top, but they simply couldn’t get out of their own way in this one; a safety late in the second quarter killed off the momentum of forcing a fumble deep in their own territory, while a lost fumble on their first play post-intermission further sucked any and all positive vibes. Granted, (Senior Tailback) Bhayshul Tuten brought them level with back-to-back touchdown runs in the final stanza, but the Scarlet Knights regained the lead with a 24-yard field goal. From there, Drones (pictured below) could get no further than his own 30-yard line as he was intercepted, ending the affair altogether. In the end, Pry’s defense was torched for 422 total yards with three turnovers only compounding matters. Furthermore, they couldn’t get off the field as the visitors controlled time of possession for a commanding 39:23, thanks in large part to a healthy 8-of-17 performance on third down. Drones completed just 13-of-27 passes for 137 yards, while rushing for another sixty yards on nine carries. Tuten had strong showing with 122 yards and three scores on fifteen rushes, but that was about it for Virginia Tech. Needless to say, this isn’t the progress that was hoped for nor projected in Blacksburg, where Pry needs to figure things out quickly, lest they find themselves once again pressing just to become bowl eligible.
From a betting perspective, Virginia Tech may have split their first four games of the campaign, but they are only 1-3 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 2.09 units. Since arriving in Blacksburg, Pry is 13-15 versus the spread, including 3-6 as a road dog, though 9-6 against conference opposition. They have however, covered four of their last five road ventures, while matching that mark in their past five outings when coming off a straight-up loss. Unfortunately, there are some rather negative trends working against the Hokies too, who have failed to cover NINE consecutive contests versus an opponent coming off a double-digit victory. Oh, and we’re sad to inform you all that a school that was always comfortable performing on Friday night is currently on a 1-4 run in such games. Looking at this particular matchup, Va Tech trails the all-time series between these schools (25-15) dating back to their time together in the old Big East, though the birds have only taken two of the last nine encounters (1-3 ATS in the last four affairs). Interestingly, the visiting side has claimed victory in four of the last five meetings, though the most recent time that the Hokies have paid Hard Rock Stadium a visit, they fell behind early (28-13 at halftime) en route to a 38-26 defeat. Dating back to 2020, Virginia Teach is 6-11 SU and 7-10 ATS in all conference games away from Lane Stadium. It appears that the public is aware of that, as roughly 33% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread like the birds, though the money tells a different story, with a slight majority (52%) of all green changing hands siding with the visitors. On the injury front, there a slew of players in question to participate in tonight’s trip to Miami Gardens, particularly among the pass-catchers, though the biggest absence is likely to be that of Tuten, who is currently listed as doubtful due to an undisclosed malady picked up in the latter stages of last week’s loss to Rutgers. The Senior would be a big loss for Tech, as he has averaged a robust 97.8 yards on 5.8 yards per carry with seven touchdowns thus far, equating to nearly half of his team’s rushing production. Looking ahead, Virginia Tech will remain on the road for a long trip out to the west coast to battle (new ACC resident) Stanford before enjoying their bye week, which could very well serve as an opportunity for reflection for a team that is failing to meet expectations.
Meanwhile, expectations are always high at Miami (4-0, 0-0 in ACC) and for the first time in quite a while, they are actually meeting them. Since transitioning to the Atlantic Coast Conference back in 2004, the Hurricanes have posted just one 10-win campaign and have yet to participate in a New Year’s Bowl, while shuffling through six different head coaches and surviving a scandal that threatened to destabilize a program that hasn’t always been synonymous with the term stability. However, the school appears to have hit a home run in the form of (Head Coach) Mario Cristobal, who turned down a massive contract to remain at Oregon so that he could return to his alma mater where he won a pair of National Championships as an Offensive Lineman (1989 and 1991). After showing incremental in his first two years back home, the 53-year-old took full advantage of the Transfer Portal with a number of high-profile additions from other programs; The U shelled well over $10 million in NIL deals to incoming veteran upperclassmen, including (former Washington State Quarterback) Cam Ward, (former Oregon State Tailback) Damien Martinez, and (former SMU Wideout) Sam Brown among others. Of the new faces, Ward (pictured below) has made by far and away the biggest impact, looking like a legitimate Heisman candidate. After two strong seasons Pullman in which he completed 65.5% of his throws for an average of 278.7 yards, with forty-eight touchdowns opposed to sixteen interceptions, the Senior has completely changed the ‘Canes attack for the better. Miami is throttling the opposition to the tune of 52.2 points (4th in FBS) on a healthy 605.0 total yards, equating to a sizable 8.8 yards per play. For his part, Ward has been surgical in connecting on 72.4% of his passes for FBS-bests of 1,439 yards, 11.7 yards per attempt, and fourteen touchdowns. Furthermore, the defense has been VERY good under (Defensive Coordinator) Lance Guidry, who is in his second year on the job. Through four games, the Hurricanes have yielded just 10.2 points per contest (11th in FBS) on 232.8 total yards, all the while enjoying a +6-turnover differential with EIGHT interceptions. This was all on display in last weekend’s 50-15 victory over South Florida, which was technically their second road game of the campaign despite not leaving the state of Florida. Believe it or not, the Bulls were very competitive in this one, or at least in the first half where they clung to a pair of narrow leads until the aforementioned Brown hauled in 76-yard bomb from Ward to retake the lead, followed by a successful two-point conversion via Martinez. From there, the visitors ran off TWENTY-EIGHT unanswered points to end the affair, highlighted by back-to-back rushing scores from Martinez and a 91-yard dash to the house courtesy of (Freshman Tailback) Jordan Lyle. When it was all said and done, the Canes outgained USF 592-365 in total yardage, overcoming eleven penalties for 113 yards, due in large part to explosive plays. Cristobal’s troops faced just ten third downs, which should give you an idea as to how they were moving the football, totaling five plays of 25+ yards. Ward completed 24-of-34 passes for 404 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, while (Sophomore Receiver) Isaiah Horton, (Senior Wideout) Xavier Restrepo, and Brown combining for sixteen receptions, 282 yards, and a touchdown apiece. As for Martinez, he accounted for eighty-one yards from scrimmage thanks to fifty yards receiving on just two catches, while Lyle’s long score helped him gain a career-high 104 yards.
From a betting perspective, Miami may be undefeated straight-up, but they have only dropped one game against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 1.73 units. Since returning to The U, Cristobal is 11-18 versus the spread, including 4-7 as a home favorite, though a mere 4-12 against their fellow denizens of the ACC. The Hurricanes are 5-5 ATS in their last ten games when favored by the oddsmakers and are looking to avoid their fourth consecutive loss to open conference play. Looking at this particular matchup, this is a team that has won twenty-five of their forty all-time meetings (.625), while taking seven of their last nine encounters with Virginia Tech, covering six of them along the way. Cristobal has been changing the narrative on many fronts during his time rebuilding his alma mater, including their ability to cover; the Canes had previously gone 2-10 ATS when coming off a SU victory, though have done so twice in three opportunities thus far. When they last met the Hokies, it was a narrow 20-14 affair in Blacksburg back in 2022. The visitors raced out to a 20-0 lead and didn’t concede until the fourth quarter, where the home side scored a pair of touchdowns to apply some pressure, though it would ultimately be a case of too little, too late. Miami outgained Va Tech 449-257 on that day at Lane Stadium, as (former QB) Tyler Van Dyke (now at Wisconsin) torching the hosts for 342 yards and two scores on 29-of-46 passing. The defense was dominant in this one, folks, as (now Junior Tackle) Akheem Mesidor wreaked havoc in the trenches with eight tackles and 3.5 sacks. The public loves the The U in this one, with 66% of all bets placed upon the spread riding with the hosts, despite the overall distribution of money being far more even (46%). On the injury front, the Hurricanes have a number of players that are questionable to participate in tonight’s affair at Hard Rock, including (Sophomore Edge-Rusher) Rueben Bain, who has been shelved for the last three games with an undisclosed injury. Bain racked up 7.5 sacks, thirteen tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles as a True Freshman last Fall and figures to provide a serious jolt to an already formidable defensive front. Looking ahead, Cristobal & Co will also be hitting the long road westward, as they get set to face (ACC newcomer) California, before enjoying the first of two bye weeks.