7:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Georgia -2.0, Total: 48.5
Titanic programs clash once again tonight in Tuscaloosa, as the (No. 2) Georgia Bulldogs prepare for a heavyweight slugfest with the (No. 4) Alabama Crimson Tide, with the winner gaining the inside track to the SEC Championship Game, and by extension, the playoff. Coming into this season, if there is one game that Georgia (3-0, 1-0 in SEC) had circled on their schedule, it was undoubtedly this rematch with Alabama, who was responsible for their lone loss last Fall. Indeed, the Bulldogs were vying for a historic threepeat in 2023 and made it all the way to a third consecutive SEC Title Game where they narrowly fell to the Crimson Tide in a 27-24 affair, barring them from even competing in the playoff. (Head Coach) Kirby Smart’s troops took out their frustration on undefeated (yet severely shorthanded) Florida State in the Orange Bowl, finishing the campaign ranked fifth overall in the final poll. However, National championships have become the standard in Athens, where the Dawgs once again figure to be among the final few teams standing, though their immediate focus will be on bouncing back from their poorest performance of the season. Prior to their bye week, Georgia barely survived a defensive struggle at Kentucky (13-12), in which they were held to a scant 262 total yards, which was 101 fewer yards than they managed in their previous trip to Lexington, a 16-6 victory back in 2022. In fact, that performance was their worst in that regard since the 2021 season opener against Clemson (256), in which they squeaked out 10-3. So, what in the name of Herschel Walker happened, you ask? Well, we’d be remiss not to credit the Wildcats’ stifling defense, which is certainly among the best in the country, but the passing game never really got going for the visitors, as (Junior Quarterback) Carson Beck could muster just 160 yards on 15-of-24 passing, unable to lead the attack into host territory until the second half. These are the games in which scouts want to see Beck (pictured below) persevere, as he has been propped up as the top QB in the 2025 NFL Draft. With that being said, he has been solid if unspectacular thus far, completing 68.3% of this throws for 226.7 yards on 8.3 yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions, with many of those figures falling well short of his sterling sophomore campaign. Thankfully, Smart’s defense handled their business and kept Kentucky contained, shipping just 284 total yards despite being on the field for a draining 35:02 of game time. One of the biggest plays of the night came late in the second half when (former Georgia QB) Brock Vandagriff was strip-sacked at midfield by (Redshirt Freshman Linebacker) Raylen Wilson, with (fellow Linebacker) Damon Wilson recovering it. Four plays later, (Sophomore Kicker) Peyton Woodring got the Dawgs on the board with a 34-yard field goal. It wouldn’t be until late in the third period that Beck & Co managed to build some momentum, manufacturing a workmanlike 10-play, 68-yard drive that bled nearly five minutes off the clock, culminating in a short jaunt into the end zone from (Sophomore Tailback) Branson Robinson to finally take the lead. Again, these are the kind of games that you need to win in the SEC, where the proverbial well of splash plays dries up and every yard is a struggle to gain. the Bulldogs rushed for 102 yards on thirty carries, converting 5-of-13 third downs and were penalized nine times for a loss of eighty-five yards, though managed to secure the victory because they took care of the ball and were the only side to find a way put six on the board instead of three. (Junior Tailback) Trevor Etienne led the team with seventy-nine yards rushing on nineteen attempts, while Senior Wideout) Dominic Lovett hauled in six receptions for eighty-nine yards.
From a betting perspective, Georgia may be undefeated straight-up, but they are just 1-2 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 1.09 units. Under the direction of Smart, this is a program that is 61-51-1 versus the spread, including 20-12 as a favorite away from Athens, and 42-32 against conference opponents. Dating back to last season, the Bulldogs are a middling 5-5 ATS, including in their last ten road ventures. However, keep an eye on that line, folks, for this is a team that has been a lock of late as small road favorite, covering FOUR straight outings when favored by 0.5-3.0 points away from Dooley Field. Unfortunately, there are a few trends working against the Dawgs too. First, they have now failed to cover FIVE consecutive contests in the month of September. Second, they haven’t covered each of their last four affairs following a SU victory. Lastly, UGA is 1-5 ATS in their past six games after passing for no more than 170 yards, with all three of those trends being relevant in tonight’s trip to Tuscaloosa. Oh, and in regard to their history with Alabama, they trail the all-time series 43-25-3, while Smart is 1-5 in six career encounters with the program that employed him as Defensive Coordinator from 2007-2015. However, it should be noted that all of those tilts came against his mentor, Nick Saban, who is no longer stalking the sidelines at Bryant-Denny Stadium (much more on that shortly), while that lone win was a BIG one; the 48-year-old led his alma mater to their first National Championship since 1980 via a decisive 33-18 triumph over the Crimson Tide in the 2021 CFP Championship. As for recent history, last year’s narrow loss in the SEC Title Game saw Georgia play right into Bama’s hands; the two-time reigning champs struggled to run the ball with success (78 yards on 31 carries), while their opponent pummeled them in the trenches (114 rushing yards on 41 carries), with a missed 50-yarder from Woodring leading directly to an opposing touchdown. Furthermore, in Beck’s first meeting with the Tide, he carried the attack in completing 21-of-29 passes for 243 with a rushing score, but was also strip-sacked deep in his own territory, with Alabama capitalizing with a field goal four plays later. On the injury front, (Defensive Linemen) Warren Brinson (Achilles), Jordan Hall (leg), and Mykel Williams (ankle) are each listed as questionable to participate with various maladies, while (Redshirt Freshman Tailback) Roderick Robinson may see his first action of the campaign following rehab from surging on his toe. Looking ahead, Georgia will return to Athens from this massive battle to host Auburn and Mississippi State, before making another seismic journey, this time to Austin, to confront (No. 1) Texas. Ah, what a league the SEC is…
Meanwhile, after passing their first test of this new era with flying colors, the next exam figures to be much more difficult as Alabama (3-0, 0-0 in SEC) opens their conference campaign with a visit from the second-ranked team in the country. As we touched upon earlier, for the first time in seventeen years, somebody other than Nick Saban is leading the Crimson Tide, as (Head Coach) Kalen DeBoer steps into the biggest coaching shoes in college football history. During his outrageously successful tenure in Tuscaloosa, Saban was 206-29 (.877) with SIXTEEN 10-win campaigns and Top 10 finishes, NINE SEC Titles, and most importantly, SIX National Championships. Furthermore, he flooded the NFL with talented playmakers on both sides of the football, while repositioning the program as the epitome of success in the sport. After all, no school has won more national titles than the Tide (10), who own twice as many as the next two schools. This is what DeBoer is inheriting, folks, and it remains to be seen if can keep the ball rolling at such a high standard. Of course, the 49-year-old is coming off a magical campaign of his own at Washington, where he led the Huskies to a Pac-12 Title and an appearance in the CFP Championship Game (where they lost to Michigan), earning AP Coach of the Year honors along the way. With that being said, there is a real argument to be made that he is inheriting a more talented team than the one that he last presided over, which has Alabama poised to compete for another spot in the now-expanded playoff. Keep in mind that his predecessor’s final group of players was a youthful one, which benefits DeBoer greatly. So, how have they performed so far, you ask? Well, there are many kinds of undefeated teams at this point of the season, but the Crimson Tide are thriving off explosive plays, much more so than they did last season. Through three games, the attack has produced a prolific 49.0 points per contest (6th in FBS) on 466.7 total yards, equating to a healthy 7.4 yards per play, highlighted by TWENTY-THREE plays of 20+ yards, the most of any team in the FBS. Now in his second season as the starter (Junior Quarterback) Jalen Milroe has really come into his own as a dynamic dual-threat that is just as adept at gashing you with his legs as he is rifling the ball downfield. Milroe (pictured below) underwent considerable growth over the course of the previous season and has continued on that trajectory this Fall, completing an efficient 67.3% of his throws for 196.7 yards per game on a healthy 11.3 yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to zero interceptions. Furthermore, he has rushed for another 156 yards and six more scores on just thirty-six carries. His talents were on full display in a 42-10 drubbing of Wisconsin, their first true road game of the campaign. After a slow start, the visitors ran off TWENTY-EIGHT unanswered points, with all four touchdown plays encompassing at least twenty-six yards. When it was all said and done, the Tide outgained the Badgers 407 to 290 in total yards, as Milroe accounted for 271 yards (75 rushing) and five total touchdowns, while (True Freshman Wideout) Ryan Williams continued his white-hot start to life in Tuscaloosa, with seventy-eight receiving yards and a smooth 31-yard score on four catches. The youngest player in the FBS, Williams has been a big-play machine for DeBoer, with the Mobile native logging 30+ yards on all four of his touchdown receptions thus far. To put things into perspective, if they manage to keep this up (which remains to be seen with SEC to begin tonight), this offense checks in as the highest scoring in school history, even more so than the 2020 National Champions who posted a robust 48.5 points per game.
From a betting perspective, Alabama may be undefeated straight-up, but they are 2-1 against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 0.82 units. Overall, DeBoer is 28-20-1 versus the spread between his stops at Fresno State, Washington, and Tuscaloosa, including 15-18 mark against conference opponents. However, not only does tonight’s visit from Georgia stand as his first venture against SEC competition, but it also represents a two very rare occasions, folks. First, the Crimson Tide find themselves receiving points from the oddsmakers for just the NINTH time since 2008, with each of the previous two instances coming against Georgia (in SEC Title Games). Second, this particular affair marks the first time that ‘Bama has been a home underdog since 2007, which was coincidentally Saban’s first year in charge. Dating back to last season, the Tide are 7-3 in their last ten games played at Bryant-Denny Stadium, though are 2-2-1 in their past five contests as a dog. We stated earlier that they own a comfortable edge over Georgia in the all-time series, with that edge also carrying over to their recent history, with three covers in their last four meetings. The most recent one, that aforementioned 27-24 triumph in last Fall’s SEC Championship Game, saw Alabama play on the front foot through the bulk of the affair, leading throughout the final three quarters of play. Milroe did an excellent job of sustaining drives and making the most of what the Bulldogs gave him, completing 13-of-23 passes for 192 yards and a pair of touchdowns, along with twenty-nine rushing yards on fourteen attempts. The Crimson Tide were ruthless in making their opponent pay for their mistakes, as Milroe launched a 15-yard touchdown shortly after a missed field goal attempt, while his teammates added another three points following a lost fumble following a strip-sack of the aforementioned Beck. In a sense, they managed to out-georgia Georgia, dominating time of possession with 114 rushing yards on forty-one carries, and forcing timely turnovers. On the injury front, (Redshirt Freshman Wideout) Cole Adams is listed as questionable with an ailing arm, while (Highly touted Tailback Freshman Tailback) Richard Young is in the same boat after leaving the field against Wisconsin with a lower body malady. Looking ahead, Alabama travel to Vanderbilt before hosting South Carolina, followed by another titanic matchup, this time against (No. 6) Tennessee in Knoxville.