8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Ravens -2.5, Total: 46.5
The fourth Sunday of this regular season concludes with a real gem, as the Baltimore Ravens host the unbeaten Buffalo Bills in a potential postseason preview under the bright lights of M&T Bank Stadium. After an offseason in which they parted ways with a number of veteran playmakers on both sides of the football, there was a growing narrative that the Bills’ (3-0, 1st in AFC East) stranglehold over their division would finally come to an end. Indeed, Buffalo bid farewell to the likes of (longtime Wideouts) Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, (veteran Cornerback) Tre’Davious White, and (Center) Mitch Morse to name a few, while in turn choosing to rely upon a group of unheralded talents that (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and his coaching staff had been grooming for years. Oh, and this also meant that they were going to be heaving an even greater workload upon the broad shoulders of (veteran Quarterback) Josh Allen, who was coming off a career-worst TWENTY-TWO turnovers, including EIGHTEEN interceptions. Granted, this is guy that also accounted for a prolific FORTY-FOUR touchdowns, including a career-best FIFTEEN rushing scores, which should give you an idea as to the risk/reward factor at play with the 28-year-old. So, how have the Bills managed to adjust through the early stages of this new season, you ask? Well, seamlessly it would appear. Through three games, Buffalo has looked like a juggernaut, leading the NFL at 37.3 points per game (1st Overall) on 332.3 total yards (13th Overall), and yielding just 16.0 points (7th Overall) on 286.6 yards (8th Overall), while enjoying the largest turnover differential (+5) with five takeaways in the last two outings alone. Could it be that Allen (pictured below) has been emancipated with the exodus of pass-catchers? The numbers suggest that may be the case, as he has completed a surgical 75.0% of his throws for 634 yards on a healthy 8.43 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions, all the while posting the highest QBR in the league (92.5). The two-time Pro-Bowler has evenly distributed the pigskin to the remade receiving corps, as ten different Bills have caught multiple passes thus far, with seven over forty yards receiving, and six hauling in a touchdown. (Third-year Tailback) James Cook has seen his profile grow exponentially during this period, amassing 285 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns, including ninety-seven yards and a receiving score on eight receptions. The unheralded Khalil Shakir has stepped into the WR1 role, with 168 yards and two touchdowns with fourteen catches on as many targets. Everyone got into the act in last Monday night’s 47-10 demolition of the hapless Jaguars, which saw the hosts outgain the visitors 388-239 in total yardage. Allen engineered touchdown drives on each of Buffalo’s first five possessions, while McDermott’s defense forced a pair of turnovers and stopped Jacksonville FOUR times on fourth down. When it was all said and done, Allen was sublime in completing an efficient 23-of-30 passes for 263 yards and four touchdowns, while rushing for another forty-four yards on six carries, with ten different targets catching a pass. Chief among them was Shakir, who reeled in six balls for seventy-two yards and a score, while (Sophomore Tight End) Dalton Kincaid added three catches for forty-one yards and a touchdown of this own. Defensively, the home side stopped the Jags on third down on all but two of their thirteen attempts, along with half of their ridiculous eight tries on fourth. Furthermore, Trevor Lawrence was under fire throughout the affair, suffering FOUR sacks and ten pressures, as (veteran Edge-Rusher) Von Miller led the charge with a sack and three pressures of the quarterback. With all that being said, business is set to pick up as McDermott & Co begin this three-game road trip against a pair of division winners and arguably their biggest competitor in the AFC East, which should provide us all with an accurate summation as to just how good these Bills really are.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be unbeaten straight-up, but they are 2-1 against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 0.82 units. Under the leadership of McDermott, this is a team that is 66-55-7 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2017, including 6-4 in that regard over their last ten games overall, and 5-5 over their past ten tilts away from Orchard Park. Furthermore, they have covered EIGHT of their last nine games after scoring 35+ points. With that being said, there are some trends working against Buffalo tonight. First, they are 1-5 ATS as underdogs versus a sub-.400 opponent coming off a SU/ATS win, which is the case with this matchup against Baltimore. Furthermore, they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games when pitted against an opponent with a losing record at home, which is also the case tonight. Looking deeper into this particular matchup, the Bills have taken just four of the last ten meetings with the Ravens (3-7 ATS), though have won the previous two encounters, chief among them a 17-3 defensive struggle in the 2020 Divisional Round of the Playoffs. They would cross paths two years later at M&T Bank Stadium, which ended in a rainy 23-20 affair; Allen carried the attack with 283 total yards (70 rushing) and two touchdowns, while Miller led the defensive effort in corralling Lamar Jackson (much more on him in a bit) with a sack and four pressures. It should be noted that (veteran Safety) Jordan Poyer who had two interceptions and (veteran Linebacker) Matt Milano, who topped the team with thirteen tackles, will NOT be featured tonight, with the former leaving in free agency and the latter out of commission with torn biceps. The public appears to remember their recent dance, folks, as roughly 72% of all bets placed upon the spread are favoring Buffalo, with an equivalent share of the money (73%) following suit. Getting back to Allen, he actually made his career debut against Baltimore back in the 2018 opener (6-of-15, 74 yards), and is 2-2 in four career encounters, completing 51.1% of his throws for an average of 159.7 yards on 4.34 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns opposed to one interception, along with another 27.0 rushing yards and one more score. On the injury front, both (young Linebacker) Terel Bernard (pectoral) and (young Cornerback) Taron Johnson will miss yet another game due to respective maladies, while (third-year Cornerback) Kaiir Elam is listed as questionable with stiffness in his neck. Looking ahead, tonight’s trip to the big crab cake kicks off a three-game road trip for the Bills, who will venture to Southern Texas for a showdown with another AFC powerhouse, the Texans, before making their annual pilgrimage to the Meadowlands to battle the Jets on Monday Night Football.
Meanwhile, the Ravens (1-2, T-2nd in AFC North) finally got in the win column after beginning the campaign with back-to-back defeats, though they are still a ways away from being the dominant force that they were over the second half of last season. Baltimore earned their first victory in large part to getting back to basics, which in their case translates to pounding the rock. Ever since they drafted (reigning MVP) Lamar Jackson with the final pick in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, this has been a largely run-oriented offense, ranking no worse than third in rushing yards each year. Even with the arrival of (Offensive Coordinator) Todd Monken last Fall with the promise of a more conventional passing game, the blackbirds still led the league in both carries (31.8) and rushing yards (156.5). Then again, that is to be expected when you have the talented Jackson (pictured below), who is arguably the most dangerous dual-threat quarterback in NFL history; over the course of his stellar career, he has rushed for 5,512 yards (61.9 yards/game) on a healthy 6.1 yards per carry. (Head Coach) John Harbaugh and (General Manager) Eric DeCosta doubled down on this strength with the offseason addition of (two-time rushing champion) Derrick Henry, who was fresh off 1,167 yards and a dozen touchdowns in his final run with the Titans. Even at 30-years-old, pairing Henry with Jackson is a nightmare for opposing defenses, though it wouldn’t be until last weekend’s 28-25 victory at the Cowboys that that would be the case. The Ravens stormed into AT&T Stadium scoring touchdowns on four of their first six drives of the evening, outgaining the hosts 332-178 en route to building a commanding 28-6 lead. The visitors would close out the day with a staggering 274 rushing yards on forty-five carries (6.08 yards per carry!), allowing them to control time of possession for 34:45 of game time. Jackson and Henry were in their respective bags in this one, folks, with the former racing around for eighty-seven yards and a touchdown on fourteen carries, while the latter rumbled his way to another 151 yards and two scores on twenty-five attempts. Hell, Jackson only attempted fifteen passes all game, including just five in the second half. However, Harbaugh & Co very nearly coughed up the lead for a second consecutive week, as Dallas ended the contest with NINETEEN unanswered points, thanks in large part to a recovered onside kick. With that being said, it appeared that Baltimore was trying to do everything within their power to let the home side back into things, with the bulk of their disappointing thirteen penalties (-105 yards!) coming in the final twenty minutes of play. After ranking first in the NFL in points allowed (16.5) and takeaways (31) last season, the blackbirds have been very suspect on this side of the football under the direction of (New Defensive Coordinator) Zach Orr, who was promoted after Mike Macdonald became Seattle’s head coach. Shipping 281 and 233 passing yards to the Chiefs and Raiders in the previous two weeks, the Secondary was torched for 361 yards and a pair of late touchdowns from Dak Prescott, who if not for twice failing on two-point conversions, could have pushed the affair to overtime. Through three games, the Ravens have yielded the most passing yards in the league at 291.7 yards on 6.9 net yards per attempt (27th Overall), with their pass-rush clocking in at middle of the pack thanks to a pressure percentage of 25.0% (15th Overall) and ten sacks (10th Overall). With Josh Allen coming to town, they will have to be a little more productive on that front, particularly late in games, lest they risk losing any momentum built from last weekend’s narrow victory.
From a betting perspective, the Ravens are both 1-2 straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 1.09 units. Since arriving in Baltimore back in 2008, Harbaugh is 147-125-12 versus the spread, including 5-5 in his last ten games overall, and 6-4 in his past ten outings as a favorite. Furthermore, the blackbirds have covered four consecutive games when favored by 0.5-3.0 points. That particularly range is significant, folks, especially when you consider that Jackson is a ridiculous 14-5 SU and 16-2-1 ATS as either and underdog or a favorite of fewer than three points, including 10-0-1 in the last instances. In fact, that was precisely the scenario at play in last Sunday’s victory in Northern Texas, in which he and his teammates were actually favored at AT&T Stadium by a mere 1.5 points. With that in mind, the public doesn’t appear to be paying much attention to that specific trend, as approximately 28% of all wagers placed up the spread siding with the hosts, while a slightly smaller share of the money (27%) has followed suit. The last two meetings between the Ravens and Bills have been tough, defensive struggles, with the point spreads reflecting that level of competition; their 17-3 affair back in the 2020 Division Round saw Buffalo favored by just 2.5 points, while their rematch in Baltimore two years later featured the birds as a 3.5-point underdog. Over the course of his career, Jackson is 2-2 against the Bills, completing 62.1% of his throws for an average of just 118.7 yards on 5.20 net yards per attempt, with as many touchdowns as interceptions (4), while rushing for 186 yards on 4.89 yards per carry. On the injury front, the Offensive Line comes into tonight’s showdown with some concerns, as Patrick Mekari (neck), Tyler Linderbaum (knee), and Andrew Vorhees (ankle) are all listed as questionable with various bumps and bruises. With that being said, the defense should be at full strength with two of their leaders, (veteran Defensive Tackle) Pierce and (Pro-Bowl Linebacker) Roquan Smith probable with shoulder and ankle maladies. Looking ahead, the Ravens will make their annual pilgrimage to Cincinnati for a crucial early division battle with the desperate Bengals, before returning home for a visit from the neighbors to the south, the Commanders.