8:15 PM EST, ABC/ESPN – Spread: Lions -3.5, Total: 46.5
The first quarter of the regular season comes to a close tonight in the Motor City, as the Detroit Lions host the undefeated Seattle Seahawks in a rematch of a thrilling overtime affair from last Fall. One of five remaining unbeaten teams, the Seahawks (3-0, 1st in NFC West) very well may be the most unlikely of the lot. After all, this was a team that fell well below expectations a year ago, finishing the campaign on a 3-5 swoon despite leading the division at the midpoint of the schedule. (Longtime Head Coach) Pete Carroll decided to step down from his post, leaving the franchise in search of a leading man for the first time in fourteen years. (General Manager) John Schneider, who has been with the birds since arriving alongside Carroll in 2010, knew that there were large shoes to fill; Carroll was 137-89-1 (.606) during his tenure with the club, advancing to the playoffs on ten occasions, with five division titles, two NFC Championships, and the franchise’s first and only Lombardy Trophy (2013). Ironically, Schneider opted to replace the oldest skipper in the league with the youngest, as Mike Macdonald, fresh off a stellar tenure directing the tenacious defense of the Ravens, takes over at the fresh age of 37-years-old. Indeed, it appears that the Seahawks needed an infusion of youth and energy along with fresh ideas, which has paid dividends in the early going. Through three games, Seattle has been a top 10 team on both sides of the football, ranking eighth in both points (24.3) and total yards (359.6), while relinquishing the fourth-fewest points (14.3) and second-least yards overall (248.6). After an injury-plagued campaign, (veteran Quarterback) Geno Smith is enjoying life under Macdonald and (new Offensive Coordinator) Ryan Grubb, who made the switch from (Pac-12 Champion) Washington. Smith (pictured below) has completed a surgical 74.8% of his throws for an average of 262.3 yards on 6.67 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and interceptions apiece, making the most of his triumvirate of receivers, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. However, Macdonald’s forte is obviously on the defensive side of things, which is where the ‘Hawks have made the biggest leap; Seattle has been a proverbial no-fly zone thus far, shipping the fewest passing yards (132.3) and net yards per attempt (3.5), all the while yielding only one touchdown through the air. Granted, the combined record of their three opponents thus far (Denver, New England, and Miami) is 3-6, so it is safe to say that these birds haven’t quite been tested yet. When we last saw them, they dismantled a decimated Dolphins side making the lengthy trip across country in a 24-3 affair. With that being said, the hosts were a bit shorthanded too, but you wouldn’t know it by how (Backup Tailback) Zach Charbonnet performed. The sophomore out of UCLA had himself quite a day in place of the injured Kenneth Walker, amassing 107 yards from scrimmage and two scores on twenty-two touches, while Metcalf led the way with 104 receiving yards on just four catches, including a 71-yard bomb courtesy of Smith. Defensively, the Seahawks held the Fins to a mere 205 total yards on thirteen first downs, a combined 1-of-15 on third and fourth down, with six sacks, a dozen hits of the quarterback, fourteen pressures, and a pair of forced fumbles. That’s not to say that this was a flawless performance for the home side, who were flagged eleven times for a loss of ninety-two yards, while Smith was picked off twice, providing Macdonald and his staff with ample material to work on throughout the week of practice.
From a betting perspective, the Seahawks may be perfect straight-up through three games, but they are just .500 against the spread (1-1-1), parlaying to a net loss of 0.09 units. Dating back to last season, this is a team that is 4-4-2 versus the spread in their past the games overall, 5-3-2 in their last ten trips away from the Pacific Northwest, and 6-4 within that same range as an underdog. In fact, Seattle has covered the spread in four of their last five contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, these birds are 10-1 ATS in the first month of the season when facing an opponent coming off a SU victory, which is the case tonight. However, there are a few trends working against Macdonald & Co. First, they are just 1-11 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins, the last by double-digits, facing an opponent off a SU win. Second, they are 2-9 ATS as non-division road dogs off a double-digit cover and facing a plus-.500 adversary. Lastly, the ‘Hawks are 1-7-2 ATS in their last ten tilts after allowing 150 or fewer passing yards in the previous game. Looking at this particular matchup, the Seahawks have taken all but one of the past ten meetings between these teams (7-3 ATS), including each of the last six SU. When they met at Ford Field last September, Seattle earned their first victory of the season with an entertaining 37-31 overtime triumph. Trailing 21-14 midway through the third quarter, the visitors ran off seventeen unanswered points to take a 10-point lead, including a 40-yard interception return. However, the hosts would eventually push the game into an overtime standoff, where Smith would take the opening possession seventy-five yards downfield, hitting Lockett for the second of his two receiving scores, ending the affair altogether. The veteran gunslinger had himself a game, folks, completing 32-of-41 passes for 328 yards and those two touchdowns to Lockett, who hauled in eight receptions on ten targets for fifty-nine yards. Defensively, the birds conceded 418 total yards, but came up with three takeaways, including a pair of recovered fumbles. The public seems to be torn on what to do, folks, as roughly 51% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread is favoring the birds, though the money is telling a rather different story just 40% of all the green following suit. On the injury front, Macdonald figures to be thin in the trenches tonight, as Defensive Linemen) Leonard Williams (ribs), Byron Murphy (hamstring), Cameron Young (undisclosed), along with (Linebacker) Uchenna Nwosu (knee) are all out of action with various maladies, while (Offensive Tackle) Abraham Lucas will miss out due to knee soreness. Looking ahead, the Seahawks return to Lumen Field for their next two contests, as they host the Giants before welcoming in the 49ers on a short week for Thursday Night Football.
Meanwhile, the Lions (2-1, T-2nd in NFC North) are adjusting from life as the hunters to that of the hunted, which really is a culture change for a franchise that had spent the last three decades lost in the proverbial wilderness. Indeed, Detroit suffered through TWENTY losing seasons during that stretch, including the league’s first winless campaign in 2008. However, (Head Coach) Dan Campbell has performed one of the most respected turnarounds in NFL history in guiding these cats to their first division title since 1993 and their first NFC Championship Game since 1991. As a result, his troops are facing a much tougher schedule along with serious expectations for the first time in, well, it’s been quite a while. So, with that in mind, how have these kings of the jungle acclimated to their new role among the league’s hierarchy, you ask? Well, it would appear that they’re growing into it. One of the biggest coups during the offseason was Campbell managing to retain the services of both his offensive and defensive coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. The train of thought here is that stability would lead to prolonged success, and while the defense has certainly looked sturdier under the direction of Glenn, ranking ninth in points allowed (17.7) and tenth in total yards permitted (293.4), the offense hasn’t been quite as productive under Johnson. Through three weeks, the Lions have averaged a middling 20.7 points (16th Overall) despite racking up a healthy 409.7 total yards (4th Overall), due in large part to (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff tossing more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3), while their red zone production has left a lot to be desired at 38.5% (26th Overall). So, what in the name of Barry Sanders in going on, you ask? Well, the Offensive Line, which is regarded as one of the best units in the NFL, has had to deal with some nagging injuries to key personnel in this early portion of the schedule, with the likes of (Pro-Bowlers) Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell going through it. Goff is very effective when he has a clean pocket to work within, though not so much when he’s under pressure, which has forced him to get rid of the ball quicker than he’d like, in turn taking away some of the deeper opportunities downfield that were so prevalent a year ago. Granted, as the passing game continues to find its way, Detroit has the luxury of simply being able to line up and rush the football down their opponents’ throats. Johnson has remained committed to the ground game, with his unit ranking fifth in attempts (33.7), fourth in yards (163.0), eighth in yards per carry (4), and eighth in touchdowns (4.8). Behind that O-Line, the tandem of (Tailbacks) Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (pictured together below) is the most formidable one-two punch in the league, with the former amassing 207 yards and a touchdown on a healthy 5.2 yards per attempt, while the latter has churned out 231 yards and three scores on 4.5 yards per carry. The duo was on full display in last weekend’s 20-13 victory in the desert over the Cardinals, combining for all but six of their team’s 187 rushing yards, with each individual breaching the end zone. The visitors outrushed Arizona 110 yards, leading to commanding advantage in time of possession (36:49), which made life much easier for Goff, who was rarely troubled on 18-of-23 passing for 199 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Furthermore, Glenn’s defense did a tremendous job of limiting their opponent to 277 total yards and a combined 1-of-11 on third and fourth down. (Third-year Safety) Kerby Joseph picked off Kyler Murray midway through the third period, while (Pro-Bowl Defensive End) Aidan Hutchinson continued his whirlwind start to the campaign, logging a sack, six tackles, and four pressures. Through three games, the 24-year-old leads the NFL with 6.5 sacks and six tackles for loss, along with eighteen pressures, eleven QB hits and a forced fumble.
From a betting perspective, the Lions are 2-1 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 0.82 units. Under the leadership of Campbell, this is a team that is a stellar 39-17-1 versus the spread, including a commanding 20-8 at Ford Field, and 21-10 against above-.500 opponents. Dating back to last season, Detroit has covered eight of their last ten games overall, along with a 7-3 record in their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, these felines are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a performance in which they relinquished fifteen or fewer points, which is the case tonight. Looking at this matchup, the Lions trail the all-time series 13-5, with just one SU victory in their last ten meetings. Interestingly, the road team has covered four of the last six encounters, with the visiting side winning three of the last four outright. This was the case in that aforementioned, 37-31 thriller in the Motor City last season, in which the hosts came up short in overtime. Campbell’s troops got out to a quick start, leading 21-14 midway through the third period, thanks in large part to the exploits of Goff, who rifled a pair of touchdowns in the first half. However, a pick-6 midway through the fourth stanza saw the pendulum swing the other way, though the veteran passer managed to draw even just before halftime as a 38-yard field goal sent the affair into overtime. Unfortunately, that would be the last time that the Lions would possess the football, as Seattle won the ensuing coin toss, elected to receive, and never looked back, breaching the end zone nine plays later. When it was all said and done, Detroit racked up a healthy 418 yards, but were done in largely due to three turnovers. Goff completed 28-of-35 passes for 323 yards, three touchdowns and that previously motioned interception, while (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Amon-Ra St. Brown hauled in six of seven targets for 102 yards, though he too had a fumble. Of course, Goff is well-acquainted with the Seahawks given his five years playing in the NFC West, owning a 5-6 ledger in which he completed 64.3% of his throws for an average of 282.5 yards on 7.47 net yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns and eleven interceptions. On the injury front, the aforementioned Ragnow will miss tonight’s primetime affair with a pectoral issue, while (Sophomore Safety) Brian Branch is listed as doubtful due to an unspecified illness. Looking ahead, Detroit will enjoy an early bye week to get healthy a hellish road schedule featuring five of their next seven games away from the friendly confines of Ford Field. Back-to-back games trips to Dallas and Minnesota loom large, folks, before visits to Green Bay and Houston at the beginning of November.