8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Falcons -2.0, Total: 44.0
Week Five kicks off with a renewal of acquaintances in the dirty south, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to put some valuable early distance between them and the rest of the division in this, their annual pilgrimage to Mercedes-Benz Stadium where the Atlanta Falcons attempt to build some precious momentum. One of the bigger surprises from last Fall, the Buccaneers (3-1, 1st in NFC South) were primed to rebuild following the successful Tom Brady era that brought the franchise its second Lombardi Trophy. However, rather than taking several steps backward, Tampa instead won their third consecutive division title, due in large part to a reinvigorated Baker Mayfield. Following in Brady’s footsteps is a daunting task indeed, though it is one that Mayfield (pictured below) appears adept at doing. The former number one overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the 29-year-old was eventually forced out of Cleveland beginning an odyssey of sorts in which he suited up for three different teams within a calendar year. Without an in-house heir to Brady’s role available, (Head Coach) Todd Bowles and (General Manager) Jason Licht took a flier on the quarterback, which has and continues to pay off handsomely. Mayfield meshed better than anyone could have expected with a team looking to turnover the roster with a slew of young talents, while still clinging to a few remnants of the previous era; the Bucs went 9-7 and knocked off the (reigning NFC Champion) Eagles in the Wild Card Round before very nearly upsetting the Lions a week later. As a result, the franchise locked down Mayfield long term (3 years, $100 million), looking to build around his talents and personality. Thankfully for everyone involved, their success together is no fluke, for through four games this is a team that looks like they could grow into a dark horse contender within the NFC. The offense looks a bit more balanced under the stewardship of (new Offensive Coordinator) Liam Cohen, averaging 24.3 points (11th Overall), with Mayfield completing a surgical 70.5% of his throws for 246.0 yards on 6.19 net yards per attempt, eight touchdowns and just two interceptions, while even rushing for another two scores to boot. (Veteran Wideouts) Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been stellar thus far with a combined 536 yards and three touchdowns apiece, while the ground game is starting to find its legs with the emergence of (Rookie Tailback) Bucky Irvin. The Oregon product has been far more explosive than the incumbent Rachaad White, rushing for 203 yards on a healthy 5.8 yards per carry, including forty-nine yards and a score in last weekend’s stunning 33-16 beatdown of Philadelphia. For the second time in nine months, the Buccaneers downed the birds at Raymond James Stadium, racing out to a commanding 24-0 lead that they would never relinquish. After taking the opening possession seventy-nine yards downfield in ten plays, Mayfield hit Evans for a short touchdown in the left corner of the end zone, before forcing a punt and getting back to business with a 5-play, 80-yard drive ending in another passing score, this time to (young Receiver) Trey Palmer. The visitors would eventually cut the deficit to ten points, but could get no closer than that, as Irving rushed for the first touchdown of his professional career to restore the advantage to three possessions midway through the third quarter. When it was all said and done, Bowles’ troops dominated Philly 445-227 in total yardage, with twenty-nine first downs opposed to sixteen, and a commanding edge in time of possession (36:17). Mayfield completed 30-of-47 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns, with Evans hauling in eight catches for ninety-four yards and that aforementioned score. As for the defense, Bowles has always done a god job of unsettling the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts, pressuring the former MVP runner-up throughout the affair with SIX total sacks by five different Bucs. (Veteran Linebacker) Lavonte David just seems to get better with age, as the 34-year-old logged two sacks, eight tackles, a defended pass, and a key forced fumble to quell a deep drive in the third period.
From a betting perspective, the Buccaneers are 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread, thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 1.73 units. Dating back to last season, this has been one of the most rewarding teams in that regard, with a 15-8 record versus the spread dating back to the beginning of the 2023 campaign. Under the leadership of Bowles, they are 19-21-1 ATS since he was promoted to the leading role two years ago, with EIGHT covers in their last ten trips away from the Gulf Coast, and ditto within that same range as an underdog. In fact, they have covered each of their last four outings as a dog between 0.5-3.0 points, which is the case tonight. Furthermore, the Bucs are 6-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games. Looking at this particular matchup, Tampa owns a very narrow lead in the all-time series (31-30 SU), though have taken seven of the last ten meetings. With that being said, they split their two encounters from last Fall, with each side besting the other on the road. When they crossed paths in late October, a 19-13 loss at the big sombrero, the Buccaneers could muster just thirteen points in a veritable field goal fest (5 between them), before bouncing back in a livelier affair (29-25) in Atlanta come early December. The visitors led most of the game, only to fall behind late in the fourth quarter, though were saved by Mayfield, who engineered a 12-play, 75-yard drive culminating in the 11-yard winner to (young Tight End) Cade Otton with thirty-seconds to spare. When it was all said and done, the Bucs rediscovered their ground game with 148 yards on thirty-seven carries, as White amassed 135 yards from scrimmage and a receiving score on twenty-seven touches, while Mayfield snuck into the end for a touchdown of his own. On the injury front, there is a plethora of names on the weekly report given this short turnaround, with the notables including (Rookie Offensive Lineman) Graham Barton (ankle), (emerging Linebacker) SerVocea Dennis (shoulder), (veteran Nose Tackle) Vita Vea (knee), and (veteran Safety) Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) all listed as questionable. Looking ahead, Bowles & Co will remain on the road for another division affair, as the travel to the big easy to battle the Saints, who have suddenly dropped two straight games after starting the campaign 2-0.
Meanwhile, it may be a new era for the Falcons (2-2, T-2nd in NFC South), but unlike their namesake they have been slower to get off the ground than many had predicted. After suffering their sixth straight losing campaign, their longest such stretch since the 1980’s, Atlanta opted for a partial makeover, with (longtime Owner) Arthur Blank and (general Manager) Terry Fontenot hiring (Head Coach) Raheem Morris to be their new leading man. Of course, Morris was very familiar with the franchise having served as an assistant under Dan Quinn from 2015 to 2020, eventually taking over as interim head coach upon Quinn’s dismissal. Deemed as a quarterback away from contending within the NFC, this was a fairly attractive job, particularly when you consider the quality to be found at that position in last Spring’s NFL Draft. However, Morris and Fontenot hedged their bets and stunned the football world by doubling down at QB, signing (4-time Pro-Bowler) Kirk Cousins in free agency before selecting Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall in the draft. Granted, at 36-years-old and coming off a torn Achilles, Cousins came with some red flags, which is likely why they opted to add Penix, though it is a bit head scratching given the financial investment made in the former (4 years, $180 million) in comparison to the relative age of the latter (24). With that in mind, the train of thought is that better QB play will enhance an offense that is loaded with young weapons. So, how have these retooled Falcons performed thus far, you ask? Well, the offense has been slow to come together, ranking twenty-second in points (18.8), nineteenth in total yards (318.8), seventeenth in passing (216.0), and twenty-second in rushing (102.8), along with twenty-first in takeaway differential (-1). In addition to the turnovers, their execution when it comes to situational football hasn’t been up to par, converting just 26.3% of their third downs and scoring a touchdown on a disappointing 40.0% of their trips into the red zone, both of which rank twenty-ninth overall. Could it be simple rust for Cousins coming off an injury and getting acclimated to a new supporting cast? Or could it be (Offensive Coordinator) Zac Robinson still importing a new offensive system? What about an Offensive Line that has been riddled with early injuries, unable to get the zone rushing attack? The answer is all of the above, folks, though the fact that Cousins leads the league with two fourth quarter comebacks does suggest that this unit isn’t that far away from reaching their potential. In the meantime, they have their defense and special teams to carry them, which was precisely the case in last weekend’s 26-24 victory over the Saints. The Falcons got started early when they recovered a muffed punt return as the ball rolled into the end zone, pounced upon by (veteran Wideout) KhaDarel Hodge. After conceding back-to-back touchdown drives, (young Linebacker) Troy Andersen (17 tackles!) returned an interception of Derek Carr forty-seven yards to the house, allowing the hosts to retake the lead midway through the second quarter. From there, it was all (veteran Kicker) Younghoe Koo, who drilled the latter three of his four field goals, all of which were over 40 yards, including the game-winner from FIFTY-EIGHT yards as time expired. In the end, the birds managed to earn their second victory despite being bested in total yards (366-315), first downs (25-14), rushing yards (131-88), and time of possession (24:18), though made up for it with those two timely non-offensive scores and the exploits of their kicker. Cousins completed 21-of-35 passes for 238 yards and an interception, though it should be noted that his heave deep downfield on their final drive drawing a pass interference (30 yards!) is what set up Koo’s game-winner.
From a betting perspective, the Falcons may have split their first four games of the season, but they are just 1-3 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 2.09 units. The birds were favored by 2.5 points in last weekend’s visit from the Saints, with that narrow victory splitting the proverbial baby on that front. Dating back to his brief tenure as interim coach in Atlanta, Morris is 7-8 versus the spread, though have struggled against quality competition; they are 4-14 ATS versus opponents who are .500 or better, while posting an 8-19 mark against teams coming off a SU/ATS victory. Furthermore, this is a team that has covered just one of their last thirteen contests in the month of October against an opponent coming off a home game, while 2-11 ATS in that same month versus an opponent coming off a SU non-division win. But wait, there’s more folks, as the Falcons have laid plenty of eggs (1-7 ATS) with revenge against division opposition who are coming off a double-digit SU win. Lastly, they have failed to cover all but one of their past eight outings immediately preceding a date with the Panthers, which is also the cast tonight. However, it’s not all doom and gloom for these birds, who have beaten the Buccaneers in two of their last three encounters with by all metrics a less-formidable team. Focusing on the young talent at the skill positions, (Sophomore Tailback) Bijan Robinson and (third-year Receiver) Drake London dazzled in their most recent affair, that 29-25 loss at Mercedes-Benz Stadium last December. Robinson amassed eighty-eight yards from scrimmage despite only needing seventeen touches, while London reeled in ten of eleven targets for a career-high 172 yards. The ongoing narrative in Atlanta is that these guys are weapons of mass destruction just waiting to be utilized properly, putting pressure on Cousins and Robinson to do so. Over the course of his career, Cousins is 1-2 all-time versus the Bucs, completing an efficient 74.3% of his throws or an average of 295.3 yards on 6.66 net yards per attempt, with six touchdowns, an interception, and four lost fumbles. As for Morris, he is winless in two meetings with his former employers (2020). On the injury front, the Falcons have some notables on their respective report too, with the aforementioned Andersen listed as questionable due to a bulky knee, while (veteran Right Tackle) Kaleb McGary was limited throughout the abridged practice week with a knee malady of his own. Looking ahead, Atlanta will hit the road for their annual pilgrimage to Charlotte to face the hapless Panthers, before returning home for the beginning of a crucial stretch that will feature the Seahawks, (at) Buccaneers, Cowboys, and (at) Saints in succession.