12:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Texas A&M -2.5, Total: 48.5
Proud SEC adversaries coming off close calls clash at College Station, as the unbeaten (No. 9) Missouri Tigers hit the road to battle (No. 25) Texas A&M in what figures to be another of the conference’s many slugfests. Expectations are often a burden and for the first time during his tenure at Missouri (4-0, 1-0 in SEC), (Head Coach) Eli Drinkwitz is carrying them. After going a middling 17-19 in his first three years in Columbia, the 41-year-old authored the school’s first double-digit campaign in a decade; the Tigers went 11-2 including 6-2 in conference play and 10-1 versus opponents that participated in bowls the year beforehand, en route to finishing the term ranked ninth in the final rankings. Armed with fourteen returning starters (9 on offense), Drinkwitz & Co came into the season ranked sixth overall, though have dropped to ninth despite remaining undefeated. So, what gives, you ask? Well, Mizzou have been living rather dangerously of late, with their last two victories coming by a combined nine points. After hammering the likes of Murray State (51-0) and Buffalo (38-0), they were forced to rally back from an early 14-3 deficit to put away Boston College (27-21) thanks to twenty-four unanswered points. These cats had little trouble moving the football (440 total yards), but struggled to finish drives with four field goals, while eight penalties for a loss of ninety-one yards further stunted their progress. Rather than take the opportunity to course-correct in their SEC opener last weekend, Missouri very nearly threw it all away in a narrow 30-27 affair with Vanderbilt that required two overtimes in order to decide a victor. Again, field goals were the story as (Redshirt Freshman Kicker) Blake Craig drilled each of his three attempts, including the game-winner in double OT. The tandem of (Senior Quarterback) Brady Cook and (Junior Wideout) Luther Burden was on full display in this one, folks, with the former completing 23-of-37 passes for 226 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while the latter reeled in six receptions for seventy-six yards and both of his quarterback’s passing scores. The first was a 20-yarder late in the first quarter to get the Tigers on the board, while the second extended the game into a second extra period. Much has been made of Burden’s (pictured below) slow start to the season after putting his name on the map last Fall with 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns on eighty-six catches, as many scouts have projected him to be a first-round pick in next Spring’s NFL Draft. With that being said, the top-ranked Receiver in the 2022 recruiting class appears to have put that behind him, with twelve receptions for 193 yards and three scores in the last two games. Getting back to last weekend’s affair, (Senior Tailback) Nate Noel had a field day against the Commodores’ defense, erupting for 199 yards on twenty-three carries, while (Sophomore Safety) Marvin Burks was all over the place with a dozen tackles, with (Junior Defensive Tackle) Chris McClellan proving to be a disruptive force with seven stops and 2.5 tackles for loss. By SEC standards, Mizzou doesn’t face the most daunting of schedules, which should give them an opportunity to keep building momentum on both sides of the football, though they had better get it altogether before they face top-ranked Alabama in Tuscaloosa on October 26th.
From a betting perspective, Missouri may be undefeated straight-up, but they have split their four games against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 0.18 units. The Tigers started the campaign narrowly covering their first two games but have failed to surpass the double-digit spreads that they were tasked with against the Eagles (-14.5) and Commodores (-17.5). Under the leadership of Drinkwitz, this is a team that is 26-26-1 versus the spread, including 3-2 as favorite away from Faurot Field, and 19-16 against conference opposition. However, these cats have been bonafide road warriors, covering five consecutive road ventures, while riding a streak four straight covers when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Mizzou is 7-1 ATS in their past eight encounters with SEC opponents above .666. Looking at this particular matchup, Missouri trails the all-time series 7-9 SU, though have taken four of the last six meetings dating back to 2010. When they last crossed paths back in 2021, the Tigers fell into a 21-0 hole in Columbia, eventually meeting a 35-14 defeat in which they were outrushed 283-98. With that being said, it has been since 2014 since they traveled to College Station, though they pulled an unlikely 34-27 upset in front of the twelfth man, besting the hosts 587-341 in total yardage. Given the small line in this one, the public appears deadlocked, with a slight majority (53%) of all wagers placed upon this afternoon’s spread choosing the visitors, while 60% of all the money that has changed hands thus far following suit with striped felines. On the injury front, the Tigers meet their first road test of the season well-rested and at full strength following last week’s bye. Looking ahead, Mizzou will remain on the road for a first-ever meeting with Massachusetts next weekend, before returning to SEC action for a homecoming date with Auburn, followed by that aforementioned showdown with the Crimson Tide, which could potentially see both adversaries unbeaten.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M (4-1, 2-0 in SEC) are also living dangerously of late, though are nonetheless building momentum for themselves after suffering their lone loss in the season opener. It’s the beginning of a new era at College Station, albeit with a familiar face to lead the way, as (Head Coach) Mike Elko returned to the program that he had a hand in building from 2018 to 2021. Indeed, the 47-year-old served as Jimbo Fisher’s Defensive Coordinator during that span, and with the school opting to pay Fisher $77 million NOT to coach their football team, Elko pounced on the opportunity to return to the lone star state. Sa what you will about Fisher, but he left the proverbial cupboard stocked with talent, including the number one overall recruiting class in 2022, and with nine returning starters on both sides of the football, Elko has plenty to work with this Fall. Granted, he did an amazing job of keeping the bulk of that experience from hitting the Transfer Portal, while bringing in plenty of talented newcomers to boot. With that being said, this is a team that underachieved mightily last season, with a litany of injuries at quarterback proving to be the biggest culprit. It’s awfully difficult to win at a high-level with inconsistencies at the game’s most important position, and the Aggies are certainly familiar with that notion as FOUR different QBs started for them in 2023. Chief among them was the top-rated pocket passer recruit in the country, Conner Weigman, who flashed a wealth of potential before suffering a broken foot just four games into the schedule. Weigman was once again tabbed to be the starter this season, but has once again succumbed to injury; the sophomore started the first two games only to be victimized by a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder shortly before their trip to the Swamp against Florida and has yet to throw a pass since. Thankfully, his young understudy, (Redshirt Freshman) Marcel Reed, has proven to be up to the task, leading the charge in the 33-20 drubbing of the Gators, followed by narrow victories over Bowling Green (26-20) and most recently Arkansas (21-17). Since taking over, Reed (pictured below with Weigman) has demonstrated efficient decision-making with six passing touchdowns and zero interceptions, while bringing a dynamic rushing ability to the table with 187 yards and a pair of scores on thirty-five carries (5.3 y/a). Elko clearly likes what he’s seen from the underclassman, though there is still growth that needs to arrive in terms of going through his progressions and reading of defenses. When we last saw he and the Aggies, they trailed throughout the contest though were successful in making a final push in the fourth quarter as Reed found (Senior Tight End) Tre Watson for the game-winning 5-yard score. It was the Fresno State transfer’s only reception of the afternoon, while the likes of (Junior Tailback) Le’Veon Moss and (Junior Wideout) Noah Thomas carrying the day, with the former rushing for 117 yards on just thirteen carries, while the latter added 109 receiving yards on six catches, highlighted by a 58-yard bomb from Reed. Speaking of the young QB, he was forced to rely more on his arm than he did in his previous two starts as the Razorbacks made it a point to keep him confined to the pocket. However, despite completing just 11-of-22 passes, he refrained from committing the kind of backbreaking turnover that often decides games like these, instead leading the game-winning drive. And speaking of turnovers, let’s give some credit to Texas A&M’s defense, which logged three of them, including a pair of fumble recoveries and a clutch interception courtesy of (Alabama transfer) Dezz Ricks.
From a betting perspective, Texas A&M may be 4-1 straight-up, but it has been a very different story against the spread where they are just 1-4, parlaying to a net loss of 3.09 units. Apart from that trip to Gainesville, the Aggies have failed to cover any of their other four outings, all of which have seen them favored by the oddsmakers. Over the course of his head coaching career, Elko is 17-13 versus the spread, including 7-6 as a home favorite, with four consecutive non-covers in that role, while owning an 11-7 mark against conference opponents. Dating back to last season, A&M is a dreadful 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten games overall, while failing to cover FIVE consecutive contests at Kyle Field. Furthermore, this is a team that 0-5-1 ATS in their last six encounters with opponents that are above .500. Looking at this particular matchup, the Aggies own a slight advantage in the all-time series (7-6 SU), though have taken just two of the last six meetings over the last fifteen years. Their most recent clash came in that aforementioned 35-14 victory in Columbia from three years ago, in which the visitors raced out to a 21-0 lead thanks to (explosive Tailbacks) Isaiah Spiller and DeVon Achane, who are both earning a paycheck on Sundays. Texas A&M trampled the Tigers defense to the tune of 283 rushing yards on forty-two carries, with Spiller and Achane each crossing the 100-yard threshold. As we stated earlier, the public breakdown is fairly level thus far, with approximately 47% of all wagers placed upon the spread siding with the hosts, while roughly 40% of all the money resides in College Station. On the injury front, Wiegman’s status continues to be up in the air, which in all likelihood will continue to be the case as Reed becomes more acclimated to his standing within the offense. However, that’s not the only situation for the Aggies, who will be without the services of (Sophomore Center) Mark Nabou for the remainder of the campaign due to a torn ACL, while (Senior Cornerback) Tyreek Chappel is listed as questionable with an undisclosed malady. Looking ahead, Elko & Co will enjoy their first bye next weekend, before traveling to Mississippi State before welcoming a visit from (No. 13) LSU on October 26th.