1:00 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Bills -1, Total: 47.5
Tension will be high as reigning division winners clash in Southern Texas, as the Buffalo Bills look to bounce from a heavy defeat, while the Houston Texans look to keep building momentum in this reunion of former teammates following a rather high-profile breakup. In the last two weeks, the Bills (3-1, 1st in AFC East) have certainly experienced opposite extremes, from the exhilaration of blowing out the Jaguars on Monday Night two weeks ago (47-10), to the disappointment of getting thrashed by the Ravens six days later (35-10). Indeed, Buffalo probably isn’t as good or nearly as poor as they appeared to be in either affair, though for the first time since the campaign there are some concerns regarding the sustainability of their success. The theme coming into this season for this team is Less is More, or more accurately, Addition by Subtraction, as (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane opted to thread the needle in turning over their roster while trying to remain competitive. Granted, that’s much easier said than done, as the club parted ways with a number of prominent figures in the offseason, including (veteran Center) Mitch Morse, (longtime Cornerback) Tre’Davious White, (veteran Wideout) Gabre Davis, and most notably (4-time Pro-Bowler) Stefon Diggs. Of course, Diggs had been an unhappy camper for a few years now, with growing rumors of his inevitable departure. However, the receiver was integral in the development of (veteran Quarterback) Josh Allen, who underwent exponential growth upon the addition of the prolific pass-catcher in 2020. In their four years together, they combined for a whopping 445 receptions, 5,372 yards, and thirty-seven touchdowns, though their inability to finish in the playoffs coupled with some visible disputes on the sidelines poured gasoline on the proverbial fire threatening to spiral out of control. So, how has the offense performed without his services, you ask? Well, apart from last weekend’s drubbing in Baltimore, they have exceeded expectations; the Bills have 30.5 points (2nd Overall) despite producing just 315.1 total yards (20th Overall), with Allen (pictured below) completing 69.3% of his throws 203.5 yards per game on a healthy 7.33 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns and more importantly, ZERO interceptions, which is notable given that he tossed a career-worst EIGHTEEN in 2023. Spreading the wealth has been the mandate in Orchard Park, as seven different players have hauled in four or more catches, led by the (unheralded) Khalil Shakir with eighteen receptions on nineteen targets for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns. (Sophomore Tight End) Dalton Kincaid (13 catches, 132 yards, 1 touchdown) and (emerging Tailback) James Cook (9 catches, 106 yards, 1 touchdown) are second and third on the leaderboard, which should paint a clearer picture of (Offensive Coordinator) Joe Brady’s approach. Unfortunately, said approach wasn’t very fruitful in that trip to M&T Bank Stadium last Sunday, as McDermott’s troops were overrun early, trailing 21-3 at intermission. This is one of those where you simply burn the film, as the Bills were relegated to season lows in total yards (236), first downs (12), rushing yards (81), and third down (3-of-13). Allen was 16-of-28 for just 180 yards and another twenty-one yards on the ground, though was sacked three times, pressured on nine occasions, and lost a crucial fumble on a broken trick play early in the third quarter. Furthermore, the defense, which had been stifling in recent weeks, was trampled to the tune of 271 rushing yards, including an 87-yard rushing touchdown courtesy of Derrick Henry that set the tone for the game. Again, that performance wasn’t indicative of the quality of this team, though it should temper their expectations moving forward.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be 3-1 straight-up, but they have split their first four games thus far against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 0.18 units. Under the leadership of McDermott, this is a team that is 66-56-7 versus the spread, including a 5-5 mark in their last ten games overall dating back to last season, while doing slightly worse (4-6 ATS) in their past ten trips away from Orchard Park. With that being said, Buffalo has covered three of their last four outings (3-0-1 ATS) on the road against an opponent with a winning home record, while posting a stellar 6-1 mark when favored by the oddsmakers following a game in which they shipped 35+ points, which is the case this afternoon. However, there are also some trends working against Allen & Co, folks, with the first being a very curious one. The Bills are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games that have taken place a week before facing their division rivals, the Jets, which is downright odd given how poor Gang Green have been over the last decade. Second, McDermott’s troops have failed to cover FIVE consecutive contests played on field turf, which is the case at Houston’s NRG Stadium. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bills own a slight lead in the all-time series between these teams (6-5 SU), though have won just two of the last seven encounters (3-4 ATS). Interestingly, the home side has won each of the last six affairs outright, with the most recent being a 40-0 drubbing of the Texans at Highmark Stadium three years ago. This one could have actually been A LOT worse, as the hosts settled for FOUR field goals between the middle two periods of play, as Buffalo outgained Houston 450-109 with a 26-6 edge in first downs, as the defense logged FIVE takeaways. The public doesn’t appear to remember that lopsided affair, as roughly 46% of all wagers placed up today’s spread have sided with the visitors, though it should be noted that the majority of the money that has changed hands thus far favors the Bills (65%). Allen completed 20-of-30 passes for 248 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another forty-one yards on six carries. In three career meetings, Allen is just 1-2 against them, completing a mere 47.7% of his throws for an average of 198.7 yards on 4.89 net yards per attempt, with two touchdowns and an interception, while adding another 152 rushing yards on nineteen carries, and even catching a score in what was the first playoff start of his career, a narrow 22-19 overtime loss in the 2019 Wild Card Round. On the injury front, the duo of (Cornerback) Taron Johnson (forearm) and (Linebacker) Terrel Bernard (pectoral) could be back in action after missing the last two games with various maladies, while (veteran Left Tackle) Dion Dawkins and the aforementioned Shakir are also listed as questionable with hamstring and ankle soreness respectively. Furthermore, (veteran Safety) Taylor Rapp suffered a concussion in last weekend’s trip to Baltimore and will likely be sidelined, while we can definitely state that (veteran Edge-Rusher) Von Miller will be inactive after being suspended for four games due to violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. Looking ahead, the Bills will close out this tough three-game road trip with their annual pilgrimage to the Meadowlands where they will face the Jets, who will be making the long trip home from across the pond.
Meanwhile, after a resurgence that saw them improve by SEVEN games en route to claiming their first division crown since 2019 and a trip to the second round of the playoffs, the Texans (3-1, 1st in AFC South) now find themselves dealing with raised expectations and a much tougher schedule. With that in mind, (Head Coach) DeMeco Ryans and (General Manager) Nick Caserio spent the offseason bolstering the supporting cast around (reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year) C.J. Stroud, who was nothing short of a revelation in his first season as the starting quarterback. Stroud led the NFL with 273.9 passing yards per game, while offering the lowest interception percentage in the league (1.0%!). Looking to take advantage of the fact that he under contract at cut-rate price for the next four years, Houston added plenty of veteran help, including the likes of (Defensive Tackle) Denico Autry, (Edge Rusher) Danielle Hunter, (Tailback) Joe Mixon, and above all, the aforementioned Diggs (pictured below), who arrived via trade with the Bills. Earlier, we covered the profound impact that the 31-year-old had upon the development of his former quarterback, with Ryans and Caserio hoping that he will have a similar influence on Stroud. Through four games, the veteran has hauled in twenty-five receptions on thirty-three targets for 233 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while even rushing for a score in last weekend’s 24-20 victory over the winless Jaguars. However, there has been concern over the overall balance of the attack, which has taken hit with the prolonged absence of Mixon, who has been sidelined due to a sprained ankle over the last two weeks. In the opener at Indianapolis, the former Pro-Bowler led a stellar rushing effort with 159 of his team’s 213 rushing yards in the 29-27 victory. Since then, it has been a very different story, as the Texans have mustered a mere 71.3 yards on 3.5 yards per carry, leaving Stroud and the passing game to carry the load. As a result, they have had a difficult time putting teams away, with their three victories coming by a combined twelve points. This was the case in the win over Jacksonville, with the hosts finding themselves trailing late in the second half; the hosts began the second half with five consecutive stalled drives, amassing just seventy-five yards with all ending in punts. Thankfully, Stroud & Co. found their rhythm when they needed to, putting together a 9-play, 69-yard possession to retake the lead on the strength of a 1-yard toss from Stroud to (third-string Tailback) Dare Ogunbowale with just twenty-two second left to play. Stroud was nothing short of clutch during this series, rushing for a first down on the opening play, before completing 5-of-5 passes, including a 26-yarder downfield to (emerging Wideout) Nico Collins to get into Jags’ territory. When it was all said and done, the home side held significant advantages in a slew of categories, including total yards (435-313), first downs (26-17), passing yards (345-169), and time of possession (33:17), though were beset by a staggering twelve penalties for ninety-three lost yards. Stroud completed 27-of-40 passes for 345 yards and two touchdowns, though was pressured on 31.1% of his drop-backs, while Collins erupted for twelve catches, 151 yards, and a score. Diggs hauled in five of his nine targets for sixty-nine yards, but opened their ledger with a 6-yard rush into the end zone midway through the first quarter.
From a betting perspective, the Texans may be 3-1 straight-up, but they are one of the few teams in the NFL thus far that have yet to cover the spread (0-4), parlaying to a net loss of 4.0 units. Under the leadership of Ryans, this is a team that is 10-13 versus the spread, including four covers in their past ten outings overall dating back to last season. Houston has covered seven of their last eight games against opponents above .500 coming off a non-division affair, while also going 5-1 ATS in their last six contests following a division tilt, with both scenarios being the case this afternoon. Furthermore, keep an eye on the spread, folks, for Stroud & Co are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers, with six straight covers following a division home game, and 5-1 ATS in all ventures immediately following a clash with the Jaguars. With that being said, they have struggled mightily against AFC East sides, with just one cover in their last six such matchups. Looking deeper into this afternoon’s encounter with the Bills, the Texans have won each of the last four meetings that have been contested at NRG Stadium, though the last time that they met in Southern Texas was in that aforementioned Wild Card affair. We’re going to go ahead and disregard their most recent crossing of paths, that 40-0 shutout in Orchard Park back in 2021, seeing as how Houston was lost in the proverbial wilderness for three seasons (11-38-1 SU between 2020-2022!). The public is favoring the home team in this one, with roughly 54% of all wagers placed upon the spread riding with the Ryans’ charges, though as we stated earlier, the money is going in a different direction with approximately 34% of all the green staying in the lone star state. On the injury front, there are a slew of questionables for this matchup, including (4-time Pro Bowl Left Tackle) Laremy Tunsil (ankle), (Sophomore Wideout) Tank Dell (chest), (starting Guard) Juice Scruggs (hip), (veteran Edge-Rusher) Derek Barnett (shoulder), and Mixon (ankle) who are all dealing with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Texans will be hitting the road for a two-game trip beginning with a stay in Foxborough against the Patriots, followed by a date with the Packers at Lambeau Field.