8:15 PM EST, ABC/ESPN – Spread: Chiefs -5.5, Total: 43.0
Week Five comes to a close with just one primetime battle, folks, as the New Orleans Saints look to get back on track in this venture to Arrowhead Field where the undefeated (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Kansas City Chiefs await. With four games in the books, this campaign has been a tale of two halves for the Saints (2-2, 3rd in NFC South), who after looking mighty impressive in their first two games have since met defeat in each of their last two outings. In their two wins, which came by a combined SIXTY-TWO points against the likes of the Panthers (47-10) and Cowboys (44-19), New Orleans churned out a whopping 405.5 total yards, including a healthy 185.0 yards on the ground, while winning the takeaway battle 5-2. However, over the last two weeks, they’ve lost consecutive games by a total of just FIVE points, with the offense falling back to Earth with 18.0 points on 292.5 total yards. So, what in the name of Archie Manning is going on in the Big Easy, you ask? Well, we doubt that this team quite as good as they were in those victories, though we also believe that they aren’t quite as poor as they were in defeat, which brings us to factor that decides so many of these games on a weekly basis: turnovers and injuries. As for the former, (Head Coach) Dennis Allen’s troops have incurred mounting injuries as the season has progressed, particularly on the offensive side of things, where they have been beset in the trenches. (Offensive Linemen) Taliese Fuaga, Cesar Ruiz, Shane Lemieux, and Lucas Patrick have all struggled with various maladies, while (Starting Center) Eric McCoy has thus landed on injured reserve with a strained groin and (veteran Tackle) Ryan Ramszyk is out for the season with a torn ACL. The club signed (veteran Center) Connor McGovern off the Jets’ practice squad to fill the void and stop the proverbial bleeding, but it is safe to say that all this shuffling up front as disrupted the rhythm of an attack that had gotten off to a flying start under the direction of (new Offensive Coordinator) Klint Kubiak. As for turnovers, well, that was the biggest reason for their narrow defeat at the Falcons last week, a 26-24 affair whose outcome can be directly attributed to grievous mistakes made on the part of the visitors. Despite owning some very clear advantages in total yards (366-315), first downs (24-15), rushing yards (131-88), and time of possession (35:42), the Saints threw it all away with a pair of turnovers that were returned for touchdowns. The first was the result of a muffed punt return following the host’s opening drive, which was recovered in the end zone. The second, happened midway through the second quarter after New Orleans rallied back to take the lead, as (veteran Quarterback) Derek Carr was intercepted at midfield and returned forty-seven yards to the house. With that being said, Carr & Co kept at it, retaking the lead thanks to a short rushing score from (veteran Tailback) Alvin Kamara with a minute left to play in regulation. Again, the visitors had nobody to blame but themselves, as a 30-yard defensive pass interference courtesy of (young Cornerback) Paulson Adebo set up the dirty birds for the game-winning 58-yard field goal. Kamara (pictured below) continued his strong start to the season, with 119 yards from scrimmage and that touchdown on twenty-eight touches, while Carr completed 28-of-36 passes for 239 yards and an interception, though was forced to check down a lot given the lack of pass-protection. Tight-End/Quarterback Taysom Hill played a factor in this one as well, rushing for twenty-four yards and a pair of touchdowns in first half to get back his side back in the game.
From a betting perspective, the Saints may be 2-2 straight-up thus far, but they are 3-1 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 1.73 units. Under the leadership of Allen, this is a team that 16-21-1 versus the spread since he was promoted back in 2022, including 7-3 in their last ten games overall dating back to last season, though a middling 5-5 in their past ten trips away from Caesars Superdome. Furthermore, New Orleans has covered six of their last seven games following back-to-back losses and facing a non-division opponent, while going 12-4 ATS in road games during the month of October, including 7-1 ATS as an underdog, which is the case tonight. With that being said, there are some worrying trends working against them. First, have covered just three of their past fourteen outings versus opponents that are above .500. Second, the Saints are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven appearances on Monday Night Football. Lastly, they have failed to cover each of their last four games immediately preceding a date with (division rival) Tampa Bay. Looking at this particular matchup, New Orleans has lost three consecutive encounters with Kansas City and thus trails the all-time series 5-7. Interestingly, the road team has covered each of the last four meetings dating back to 2008, including their most recent affair, a 32-29 shootout in the Superdome four years ago. After falling behind 14-0, the hosts rallied back to take a 15-14 lead, though ultimately couldn’t slow down the Chiefs’ high-powered attack; Allen’s defense was gashed for 411 yards on a whopping THIRTY-FOUR first downs with the visitors possessing the football for a commanding 41:14 of game time. Kamara totaled ninety-four yards and a receiving score on seventeen touches, while Hill got his team on the board with a short rushing score in the second quarter. As for Carr, he is VERY acquainted with Kansas City after spending the first nine years of his career in the AFC West with the Raiders; the 33-year-old is just 3-14 against them with a completion percentage of 62.5%, 242.4 yards per game, twenty-six touchdowns, and twenty-one total turnovers, his most versus any single opponent. On the injury front, the quartet of Patrick (groin), Ruiz (knee), Lemieux (ankle), and Fuaga (back/knee) were all limited to varying degrees throughout the week of practice and have been listed as questionable to return tonight. However, they’re not the only players at risk for New Orleans, with (longtime Linebacker) DeMario Davis questionable to return after missing last weekend’s trip to Atlanta with a tender hamstring, while Hill is in the same boat with sore ribs. (Veteran Linebacker) Willie Gay Jr, who spent the first four years of his career in Kansas City winning back-to-back Lombardi Trophies, may also be sidelined with an ailing hand. Looking ahead, the Saints will return to the Big Easy for a two-game homestand beginning with a crucial division battle with the Buccaneers followed by a visit from (longtime former Head Coach) Sean Payton and the Broncos.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs (4-0, 1st in AFC West) are one of only two remaining undefeated teams left in the NFL, though one has to wonder just how much longer that will be the case considering their own mounting injury woes. Whereas their opponent has been decimated in the trenches, Kansas City is dropping like flies at the skill positions. Coming into this season, (Head Coach) Andy Reid and (General Manager) Brett Veach went to great lengths to bolster the passing game with an injection of speed and athleticism all in an effort to secure an unprecedented third consecutive Lombardi Trophy. The club signed (veteran Wideout) Marquis Brown in free agency and drafted the fastest player at last Spring’s annual Scouting Combine, (Rookie Receiver) Xavier Worthy in an attempt to bring some verticality back to an attack that had become far more methodical than it had been during the beginning of the Patrick Mahomes era. Granted, Mahomes has proven an innate ability to adapt to the weapons around him, which he continues to do despite the revolving door of targets around him. Simply put, his targets have been in flux since the preseason, folks; Brown suffered a broken bone in his shoulder back in the Summer and will likely miss the entire season, while (emerging Tailback) Isiah Pacheco, who had become a growing part of the offense over the past two seasons, fractured his fibula two weeks ago and will likely be out until sometime in December. If that wasn’t enough, (Sophomore Wideout) Rashee Rice suffered a partially torn ACL in last weekend’s rally to beat the Chargers, ironically after colliding with Mahomes in the chaos following a turnover. As a rookie last Fall, Rice (pictured below) quickly became his Quarterback’s favored target, reeling in seventy-nine receptions for 938 yards and a team-high seven touchdowns, with another twenty-six catches, 262 yards, and a score in the playoffs. While his legal issues threatened to disrupt his campaign before it even began, the 24-year-old had emerged as the focal point of the passing game, hauling twenty-four catches on twenty-nine targets for 288 yards and two touchdowns through four games, including twelve receptions for 110 yards and a score in a 22-17 victory over the Falcons two weeks ago. So, what have Reid and Veach done in response to breakout of injuries, you ask? Well, it has been a blast from the past, folks, as a pair of former Chiefs have returned to Arrowhead Stadium; (veterans) JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kareem Hunt returned to the club that they each won a Super Bowl with, with the former posting two catches for seventeen yards and a touchdown thus far, while the latter amassed eighty-five yards from scrimmage in his debut last weekend. Speaking of that trip to Southern California, the visitors got off to a slow start as they trailed 10-0 until the latter stages of the second quarter thanks to a par of turnovers on the first two drives of the day. However, as they have so often, Kansas City dug in and climbed back into the fight, shutting out the Chargers the rest of the way en route to a 17-10 victory. The rally began with a 54-yard bomb from Mahomes to Worthy, while (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo’s unit absolutely smothered the hosts the rest of the way, permitting a scant 150 total yards over the final nine drives. When it was all said and done, KC outgained the home side 329-224 in total yardage, outrushed them 101-55, and kept the chains moving by converting 9-of-16 third downs. Mahomes completed 19-of-29 passes for 245 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Worthy caught three passes on four targets for seventy-three yards and that aforementioned score. Oh, and (veteran Tight End) Travis Kelce, who had gotten off to a slow start finally showed some real signs of life with seven receptions for eighty-nine yards. (All-Pro Defensive Tackle) Chris Jones set the tone on the opposite side of the football with a pair of sacks, and three pressures.
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs may be unbeaten straight-up, but it has been a very different story against the spread, where they are 2-1-1, parlaying to a net profit of 0.82 units. Under the direction of Reid, this is a team that is 112-90-4 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2013, including a commanding 8-1-1 in their last ten games overall dating back to last season, 6-4 in their past ten outings at Arrowhead, and 4-4-2 within that range as a favorite. Furthermore, this is a team that has covered four straight games after allowing ninety or fewer rushing yards in the previous contest. However, Monday Night Football hasn’t been very kind to Kansas City of late, with four consecutive loss versus the spread within this primetime showcase. Looking at this particular matchup, the Chiefs are riding a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) against the Saints, with one coming at home (27-21 back in 2016). However, the most recent encounter was in that aforementioned 32-29 shootout from four years ago, which is coincidentally the only one to feature Mahomes. The two-time MVP completed 26-of-47 passes for 254 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for another thirty-seven yards and a lost fumble, connecting with Kelce on eight occasions for sixty-eight yards and a short score early int eh second quarter to take a 14-0 lead. Spagnuolo’s defense really did a number on one of the better offenses in the league, relegating New Orleans to a mere 285 yards on fifteen first downs, including sixty rushing yards on seventeen carries. This is likely a personal matter for the venerable defensive playcaller, who spent one very forgettable season in the Big Easy coordinating the defense, ranking dead-last in total yards allowed. The public doesn’t appear to remember much of this, with approximately 75% of all wagers placed upon the tonight’s spread riding with the visitors, while an even larger share of all the money being wagered (82%) has followed suit. On the injury front, we gave you the rundown at the skill positions, but there a few other names to consider, including (veteran Defensive Lineman) Mike Danna, who has been hampered by a sore calf muscle in recent weeks, along with (fellow Lineman) Charles Omenihu who has yet to be activated following his rehab from a torn ACL. Looking ahead, the Chiefs will enjoy an early bye week before returning to the gridiron for a trip to Santa Clara for a Super Bowl rematch with the 49ers before a venture to Sin City for their annual pilgrimage at the Raiders.