8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: 49ers -3.5, Total: 49.0
Bitter division rivals renew acquaintances as Week Six kicks off in the Pacific Northwest, with the (reigning NFC Champion) San Francisco 49ers in search of stability as they face the Seattle Seahawks, who are looking to bounce back after suffering back-to-back defeats. After coming oh, so close to winning Super Bowl LVIII, where they fell to the Chiefs in overtime (25-22), the 49ers (2-3, 3rd in NFC West) were expected to go on a revenge tour this Fall, though going has been particularly rough for (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan & Co. Since hammering the Jets in the season opener (32-19), this is a team that has won just one of their ensuing four contests, including a pair against division rivals Los Angeles (27-24) and most recently Arizona (24-23). Anybody who has watched San Francisco perform thus far will tell you that there are three factors that have contributed to their current standing within the conference. First, they’ve been without (reigning Offensive Player of the Year) Christian McCaffrey from the opening kickoff due to the ongoing effects of persistent calf soreness and Achilles tendonitis. Unless you have been living under a rock, you know that McCaffrey is a truly irreplaceable talent, particularly after a campaign in which he led the NFL with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and twenty-one total touchdowns. The Niners lost all three games that he missed last season, which goes to show how vastly different the game plan is without his presence, which brings us to the second factor: execution. A year after ranking first in the league in red zone touchdown percentage (67.2%), Shanahan’s troops have plummeted to twenty-ninth (40.9%), which again speaks to McCaffrey’s absence. Simply put, this unit is a helluva lot easier to defend without the versatile tailback creating mismatches, which puts more pressure on the shoulders of (third-year Quarterback) Brock Purdy to make plays. More of a facilitator than a playmaker, Purdy (pictured below alongside McCaffrey) has been a turnover prone without the two-time All-Pro in the Backfield, totaling as many turnovers (6) as touchdowns thus far. In those three games without CMC last Fall, Purdy accounted for three scores in comparison to six turnovers. These issues were on full display in last weekend’s loss at home to the Cardinals, who rallied back from a 23-10 halftime deficit. The hosts were shutout in the second half with all four of their drives ending in a turnover, including bookending interceptions of Purdy, who completed 19-of-35 passes for 244 yards. (Sophomore Tailback) Jordan Mason, who has been filling in for McCaffrey, rushed for eighty-nine yards on fourteen carries, though caught just one pass for nine yards and lost a crucial fumble in the fourth quarter that led directly to Arizona’s game-winning field goal. When it was all said and done, San Francisco outgained the redbirds 384 to 358 in total yardage, rushing for 153 yards on twenty-six carries, and converting 6-of-11 third downs, which are all usual recipes for success, though lost the turnover battle 3-1, and were steamrolled for a season-high 169 rushing yards, eighty-three of which coming courtesy of opposing quarterback, Kyler Murray. Sure, it was nice to see (veteran Wideout) Brandon Aiyuk (8 catches for 147 yards) finally breakout after a prolonged contract standoff that resulted in a lucrative new deal, but this offense needs the versatility out of the Backfield that McCaffrey brought to the gridiron.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers are 2-3 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 1.18 units. Apart from their two blowouts of AFC East opposition, the Jets and Patriots, San Francisco has failed to cover the line against any of their conference brethren. Under the leadership of Shanahan this is a team that is 68-62-2 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2017, including 36-27 away from Levi’s Stadium, 40-43 as favorites, and 24-21 opposite division competition. Furthermore, they are also 7-1 ATS when coming off a division affair and about to play an opponent with revenge, which is the case in this trip to Seattle. Purdy & Co have won five consecutive meetings with these birds, including each of last year’s tilts; San Fran hammered them in a 31-13 showing at Lumen on Thanksgiving night, before taking care of business in Santa Clara just over two weeks later (28-16). With that all being said, the Niners have strung together SIX consecutive non-covers against NFC teams, with as many spread losses versus teams above .500, while also going 0-4 ATS immediately after shipping at least 150 rushing yards, with all three trends proving relevant tonight. Looking deeper into this particular matchup, it will be interesting to see if the 49ers can continue their dominance over the Seahawks without the aforementioned McCaffrey; in four games against his division rival, CMC has averaged a robust 141.5 yards from scrimmage with five total touchdowns, including a 139-yard, 2-TD performance in last Fall’s trip to the Pacific Northwest, which was coincidentally also on a Thursday night. In fact, two of San Francisco’s last four wins over Seattle have occurred on this particular day of the week. However, the public doesn’t appear to be reading into any of that, folks, as a commanding 75% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread have sided with the visitors, with a slightly larger majority (77%) of all the money that has been wagered following suit. On the injury front, Shanahan is dealing with more than the absence of McCaffrey, for there are a litany of other Niners in question tonight, including the likes of (Guard) Jon Feliciano (knee), (Defensive Tackle) Javon Hargrave (triceps), (Safety) Talanoa Hufanga (wrist), and (Kicker) Jake Moody (ankle) are all out of action with various maladies. As for (veteran Cornerback) Chavarius Ward, he is listed as questionable with a knee soreness. Looking ahead, it doesn’t get any easier for the 49ers, who will host the (reigning Cuper Bowl Champion) Chiefs in a rematch of Super Bowls LIV and LVIII, before welcoming in the Cowboys for the latest chapter in one of the NFL’s most historic rivalries.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks (3-2, 1st in NFC West) have fallen into a tailspin following an inspiring start to their new era under the direction of (Head Coach) Mike Macdonald, the first man other than Pete Carroll to lead this franchise in fifteen years. The youngest head coach in the NFL, the 37-year-old has revolutionized the coaching staff, while bringing a different energy to the building, which was received well by his troops in the early going. During Seattle’s 3-0 start, they were besting their opponents by a margin 10.0 points per game and outgaining them by an average margin of 95.3 total yards, despite losing the turnover battle 4-3. However, that early schedule was rather soft, folks, as the birds preyed upon the likes of the Broncos (26-20), who were starting a rookie quarterback, along with the Patriots (23-20) and Dolphins (24-3), who respectively are a collective 3-7 at the moment. Furthermore, those first two contests were much closer than the averages over that stretch would lead you to believe, including a narrow escape from New England that required overtime to settle matters. With that said, unbeaten is unbeaten, though they would meet their first true test of the campaign in the form a trip to Detroit for a primetime battle with Lions two weeks ago. In what was a veritable track meet that saw the two sides combine for 905 yards of offense, the visitors were ultimately done in by self-inflicted wounds. Despite recording a season-high 516 total yards (including 133 via the run) and THIRTY-EIGHT first downs, Seattle met a 42-29 defeat thanks to a pair of turnovers and a late safety resulting in their first loss of the season. Sure, as far as measuring sticks go, that was an encouraging performance for Macdonald’s team, though that promise quickly turned into pessimism in last weekend’s surprising 29-20 loss at home to the Giants. For the second week in a row, the defense was torched as the visitors moved the ball at will with 420 total yards, twenty-four first downs, and an efficient 7-of-16 on third down. As a result, the Seahawks possessed the football for a mere 22:38 of game time, trailing throughout the affair. They did have an opportunity late in the afternoon to draw level; (veteran Quarterback) Geno Smith engineered a 14-play, 95-yard drive culminating in a short touchdown toss to (Sophomore Wideout) Jaxson Smith-Njigba to make it 20-23 with just over two minutes to play, though when they attempted a potential 47-yard field goal to tie the game, (veteran Kicker) Jason Myers was blocked by the G-Men, who promptly returned the ball to the house, effectively ending the affair altogether. It was a woefully unbalanced showing from the hosts, particularly on the offensive side of the football, rushing just ELEVEN times despite racking up 102 yards, seventy-two of which came from Smith (pictured below) on four scrambles. The vet also completed 28-of-40 passes for 284 yards and a touchdown with nine different targets catching a ball. However, the injury-plagued defense simply couldn’t get off the field, which played a hand in the offensive approach. So, after five games, the question remains: just who the hell are these Seahawks? While they probably aren’t as good as they appeared during their strong start, nor as poor as they looked last week, the truth is that these birds reside somewhere in between, though tonight’s visit from the 49ers provides them with an opportunity to create some valuable space within the division, which is a commodity that they wasted last year.
From a betting perspective, the Seahawks may be 3-2 straight-up but it has been a very different story against the spread thus far (1-3-1), parlaying to a net loss of 2.09 units. Dating back to last season, this is a team that has covered just one of their last eight outings (1-5-2 ATS). These birds are 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten games contested at Lumen Field, while sporting a middling 5-5 mark in that regard over their past ten outings as an underdog. However, there are some trends that support them tonight; Seattle is 13-2 versus the spread in their last fifteen division affairs after coming off back-to-back losses, while going 8-1 ATS off consecutive defeats in the month of October. In fact, Macdonald’s charges are 16-3 SU and 18-0-1 ATS on their home turf when coming off two straight losses. With that in mind, they’ll have to find a way to change the narrative in this matchup with the Niners, who have absolutely had their number of late. As we touched upon earlier, San Francisco has bested them in FIVE consecutive encounters, with the ‘Hawks covering just one of them, which happened to be as a 14.5-point underdog. These games haven’t been close, ladies and gentlemen, with the denizens of the Pacific Northwest losing by an average margin of 15.2 points, only one of which decided by less than double digits. They’ll need a stronger showing from Smith, who turns 34-years-old today, though has struggled historically against his division rival, completing 72.0% of his throws for 217.0 yards on a poor 5.47 net yards per attempt with as many interceptions (3) as touchdowns. Be that as it may, he is off to the most prolific start of his career, leading the league in passing attempts (199), completions (143), and yards (1,466). On the injury front, that defense is expected to be without many contributors once again, with the likes of (Cornerback) Riq Woolen (ankle), (Edge-Rusher) Uchenna Nwosu (thigh), and (Rookie Defensive Tackle) Byron Murphy (hamstring) all out of action, while (Safety) Julian Love (hamstring), (Linebacker) Boye Mafe (knee), and (Defensive Tackle) Cameron Young (knee) are listed as questionable with various maladies. Furthermore, the Offensive Line will once again be without the services of (Tackles) Abraham Lucas and George Fant, with the former working his way back from knee surgery and the latter dealing with an ailing knee of his own. Looking ahead, the Seahawks will travel to Atlanta to meet the Falcons next weekend, before returning home for a visit from the Bills.