10:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Utah -5.5, Total: 45.5
As we march on to the midpoint of the regular season, a pair of teams charting a new path in a new conference renew acquaintances as the (No. 16) Utah Utes look to get back on track following their first loss of the campaign, in this trip to Tempe to battle the Arizona State Sun Devils, who appear to be ahead of schedule. It seems that the more things change, the more they stay the same, as Utah (4-1, 1-1 in BIG XII) may be breaking new ground in a new league, but have nonetheless dealt with the same themes that characterized their run last Fall. For the second consecutive season, the Utes are working though injuries at the game’s most important position, Quarterback, as (Senior QB) Cameron Rising has once again been beset by nagging maladies. Of course, Rising (pictured below) has been very successful during his tenure in Salt Lake City, when he’s been on the field, that is; the former Texas transfer is 20-7 as the starter, accounting for sixty-five total touchdowns and leading the school to back-to-back Pac-12 championships along the way, though missed all of last year rehabbing from a torn ACL. After starting the first two contests of this Fall, Rising suffered a cut to a finger on his throwing hand (that required stitches) running out of bounds and has since been unable to perform for (Head Coach) Kyle Whittingham & Co, despite being a gametime decision in each of the last two outings. In his absence, (True Freshman) Isaac Wilson has filled the void as best he can, leading Utah to successive road victories over the likes of Utah State (38-21) and Oklahoma State (22-19). However, Wilson (pictured alongside Rising) struggled mightily when they returned to Rice-Eccles Stadium in a clash with (former Pac-12 neighbor) Arizona, which culminated in their first defeat of the campaign. The hosts were unable to establish the ground game in really any fashion (29 carries for 84 yards), with the bulk of the attack falling on the underclassman’s shoulders. Wilson completed just 20-of-40 passes for 280 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, while Whittingham’s troops were turned away FOUR times on fourth down in the 23-10 affair. Despite limiting the Wildcats to 358 yards and three field goals, the home side were pummeled for a season-high 161 rushing yards and eventually broke down in the final stanza as the visitors drove eighty-seven yards downfield in eight plays, culminating in a 35-yard touchdown strike with eight minutes left to play. (Senior Tailback) Micah Bernard churned out ninety-one rushing yards on sixteen carries, while (Senior Wideout) Dorian Singer carried the passing game with nine receptions for 155 yards, though their inability to breach the end zone more than once ultimately proved to be their undoing. Having now spent a week off to stew on this loss, the Utes should be frothing at the mouth to get back in the win column, while Rising SHOULD be one step closer to returning to the gridiron. While it’s true that they have enjoyed success without him in the past, the simple fact is that a healthy Rising is the difference between this being a good team and a very good one that is capable of winning the BIG XII and thus earning a spot in the expanded playoff.
From a betting perspective, Utah may be 4-1 straight-up thus far, but they are just 2-3 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 1.18 units. Since covering their season opener versus Southern Utah with room to spare (49-0), this is a team that has managed to cover just one of their next four contests, including that aforementioned loss to Arizona in which they were 7.5-point favorites. Under the leadership of Whittingham, who is in TWENTIETH season leading the program, the Utes are 131-110-3 versus the spread, including 29-32-1 when favored away from Salt Lake City, and 92-74-1 against conference opposition. Furthermore, they are 4-6 ATS over their last ten games overall dating back to last season, while covering four consecutive contests following a double-digit home defeat and owning a 5-1-1 record ATS over their last seven encounters with BIG XII opponents, which is obviously the case tonight. Oh, and they are also 6-3 ATS when coming off a bye week since 2016. With that being said, Utah has covered just one of their last five outings versus an opponent above .500, and interestingly enough, is coming off just their seventh SU loss in their last sixty-three games in which they amassed more total yards than the opposition. Looking at this particular matchup, the Utes trail the all-time series 22-12, though have won each of the last four meetings (3-1 ATS). The last time that they ventured to Tempe, Whittingham’s defense dominated the Sun Devils, yielding just 267 total yards and forcing three takeaways, while Rising completed 19-of-29 passes for 260 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception in the 34-13 victory. If he does make his return tonight, then this will be his third encounter with ASU, whom he has defeated twice now, completing 63.5% of his passes for 507 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions, with another eighty-six rushing yards and one more score on nine carries. On the injury front, we’ve covered the Rising situation at length, though it should be noted that reports out of Salt Lake are stating that he will indeed make his first start for the Utes since September 9th. Looking ahead, Utah will return to Rice-Eccles for a visit from TCU, before hitting the road once more to battle Houston.
Meanwhile, in what was widely expected to be another rebuilding season in Tempe, Arizona State (4-1, 1-1 in BIG XII) has been a pleasant surprise in performing above expectations this Fall after surpassing their win total from the previous campaign just five games into the schedule. Simply put, it would have been easy for (Head Coach) Kenny Dillingham to make excuses for a program that is operating under NCAA sanctions, which was a big reason that they lost (former 4-star recruit) Jaden Rashada to the Transfer Portal. However, Dillingham nonetheless managed to cobble together the 28th-ranked recruiting class in the nation, which is a sign of good things to come for the Sun Devils, who as we stated int eh opening appear to be well ahead of schedule. On the offensive side of the football, balance has been the key as ASU is one of a handful of the schools to be producing 200+ yards passing and rushing thus far. Indeed, the ground game has served as the foundation of their success, with 218.2 yards on 44.6 carries per contest, led by (Senior Tailback) Cameron Skattebo leading the charge with 615 yards and six touchdowns on a healthy 5.5 yards attempt. Skattebo (pictured below) has been a bit of a rollercoaster through the first five games, with a career-high 262 yards in a 30-23 victory over Mississippi State along with 182 yards in last weekend’s 35-31 win against Kansas. However, in the other three outings he has been relegated to 171 yards on just 3.1 yards per carry. With that being said, (Redshirt Freshman) Sam Leavitt has proven to be an ideal complement to his teammate, gashing opponents for 257 yards and four rushing scores of his own on 5.2 yards per carry. Granted, the (Michigan State transfer) still has a way to go as a passer, completing 59.0% of his throws for 1,012 yards on 7.6 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. In last Saturday’s triumph over the Jayhawks, the offense erupted for 481 total yards on twenty-eight first downs, converting 6-of-10 third downs, and rushing for a staggering 309 yards on forty-five carries. 259 yards of that rushing total came courtesy of Scattebo and Leavitt, with the latter accounting for seventy-seven yards on ten carries, to go with arguably his finest performance as a passer with FOUR aerial scores. The two sides traded touchdowns throughout an eventful second half, though it would be the hosts who had the last laugh; after Kansas retook the lead with just over two minutes left to play, the Sun Devils responded with an 8-play, 75-yard drive that saw Scattebo and Leavitt rush for sixty-three yards, before the quarterback found (Sophomore Wideout) Jordan Tyson for the game-winner from three yards out. Tyson hauled in six receptions for seventy-six yards and two scores. Sure, Dillingham would probably have preferred a cleaner game from his troops, who lost the turnover battle 2-0 and were flagged eight times for a loss of seventy yards, but 4-1 is 4-1, which has ASU two wins away from being bowl eligible for the first time in three years.
From a betting perspective, Arizona State are both 4-1 straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 2.64 units. All of their games have featured a small point spread, with none veering above 6.5-point threshold. Under the direction of Dillingham, this is a team that is 10-7 versus the spread since his appointment last year, including 3-4 as an underdog at Sun Devil Stadium, and 7-4 against conference opposition. Dating back to last season they are 6-4 ATS in their past ten games overall, though 5-4-1 in that regard both at home and when receiving points from the oddsmakers. It should also be noted that these Devils have really fancied playing on Friday nights, with four consecutive covers on this particular day of the week. With that being said, ASU is just 1-4 ATS in their last five conference affairs, with six losses to Utah in their last eight meetings dating back to 2015. As we covered earlier, they haven’t beaten the Utes since 2018, which is coincidentally their only win against them in Tempe in a decade. During this four-game losing streak to them, Dillingham’s charges have been outscored by 105 points, with the most recent encounter being a 55-3 debacle in Salt Lake City last Fall. The visitors were held to a scant EIGHTY-THREE yards of offense on that day, including just forty passing yards on 8-of-29 attempts, relinquishing four sacks and six tackles for loss. Skattebo had a rough day at the office in this one, folks, rushing for thirty-one yards on twelve carries, though as a team the Devils could muster only forty-three yards on twenty-nine carries. It appears that the public clearly remembers this contest, as roughly 84% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are siding with the Utes, while a slightly smaller percentage of all the money changing hands has followed suit (77%). On the injury front, the Sun Devils are largely healthy, with the only absence being that of (Freshman Receiver) Zechariah Sample, who is out indefinitely due to foot malady that will in all likelihood see him redshirt. Looking ahead, Arizona State will host Cincinnati next weekend before enjoying their second bye in five weeks, followed by a trip to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State.